Starting... now?
Tuesday, May 30, 2023
Job growth appears to have slowed in May, but unlikely as much as estimated, and that suggests a recession is still farther away than many expect.
Least Resistance
Monday, May 22, 2023
Until shown otherwise, the path of least resistance is now defined.
Stanley Did It
Monday, May 15, 2023
Did investors just capitulate on the U.S. Dollar... taking away a key bull case for the stock market?
Clear Indication
Monday, May 8, 2023
What we mainly know from the economic data so far in 2023 is all the experts have been wrong. Meanwhile, sentiment is giving a rather clear signal.
More of the Same
Monday, May 1, 2023
Data has been choppy over the past six weeks, but so far, the second quarter is looking more like the first quarter, which remains above expectations.
Low Volatility
Monday, April 24, 2023
Low volatility is a marker of a bull market... but also complacency. In this case, it likely all comes down to just one horizontal line.
Transition
Monday, April 17, 2023
Recent data points suggest we are transitioning from a "higher for longer" period to a "high for a while" period, which tells us where we are in the cycle, and gives room for a secular story developing (that isn't AI).
Anatomy of a Turn
Monday, April 10, 2023
Investor sentiment remains relatively low, market participation is broadening, and a leading indicator is showing signs of turning higher as earnings season gets underway.
Companies vs Soft Data
Monday, April 3, 2023
Despite last month's upside surprise, job growth continues to weaken, but it should still confirm we are not in a recession, which matches what companies are saying despite the expectations.
Red Flag
Monday, March 27, 2023
We started the year with data showing a recession was likely 2024 or later, and that meant rates were “higher for longer”. So far, the data tells the same story, but there is one early read-through that is a red flag.