Job growth appears to have slowed in May, but unlikely as much as estimated, and that suggests a recession is still farther away than many expect.

Until shown otherwise, the path of least resistance is now defined.

Did investors just capitulate on the U.S. Dollar... taking away a key bull case for the stock market?

What we mainly know from the economic data so far in 2023 is all the experts have been wrong. Meanwhile, sentiment is giving a rather clear signal.

Data has been choppy over the past six weeks, but so far, the second quarter is looking more like the first quarter, which remains above expectations.

Low volatility is a marker of a bull market... but also complacency. In this case, it likely all comes down to just one horizontal line.

Recent data points suggest we are transitioning from a "higher for longer" period to a "high for a while" period, which tells us where we are in the cycle, and gives room for a secular story developing (that isn't AI).

Investor sentiment remains relatively low, market participation is broadening, and a leading indicator is showing signs of turning higher as earnings season gets underway.

Despite last month's upside surprise, job growth continues to weaken, but it should still confirm we are not in a recession, which matches what companies are saying despite the expectations.

We started the year with data showing a recession was likely 2024 or later, and that meant rates were “higher for longer”. So far, the data tells the same story, but there is one early read-through that is a red flag.