The Market's True Earnings Expectations

Go beyond the consensus and become a better stock picker with Earnings Whisper numbers, investor sentiment, and proprietary research and tools to help you capture the Post-Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD) and outperform the overall stock market. Plus, get the most accurate earnings dates, earnings news, and insights into how stocks react before and after earnings.



Most Anticipated Earnings Releases TM

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The most anticipated earnings releases for the week beginning October 29, 2026 are AMZN Amazon.com INTC Intel NSSC NAPCO Security Technologies SNDK Sandisk AAPL Apple

Earnings Expectation Life Cycle

Cheap Is Not the Same as Undervalued

A stock does not go from cheap to expensive at random. It moves through four recurring phases, set by two things: which way earnings estimates are heading, and whether investors have noticed yet. Get the pair right and a falling stock that keeps falling looks entirely different from one that is about to turn.

Earnings Momentum Positive Surprise Negative Surprise Value Trap
Value Trap

Bearish sentiment, falling estimates. Looks inexpensive, keeps underperforming. Declined in 59% of quarters.

Positive Surprise

Estimates turn up while sentiment is still bearish. The inflection, and the best risk-reward in the cycle.

Earnings Momentum

Bullish sentiment, rising estimates. The established trend, and historically the strongest of the four.

Negative Surprise

Estimates roll over while sentiment stays bullish. Bernstein called it the Torpedo, and the decline is abrupt.

Worked through with Amedisys, Callon Petroleum, NVIDIA, and SolarEdge.

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The Whisper Report®

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Variable Change

Monday, October 26, 2026
It is one of the strongest starts to third quarter earnings season, but it is all about variable change.
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Earnings Preview

NSSC NAPCO Security Technologies is confirmed to report Monday, November 2, before the open.

NAPCO's First Post-Refund Quarter Puts Equipment Margins and Recurring Revenue to the Test

NAPCO Security Technologies closed its fiscal year with record revenue, an expanding recurring-revenue base, a 13% dividend increase and a cash pile of $137.6 million with no debt. The stock has fallen about 16% since that report, while the S&P 500 was roughly flat. That gap frames the fiscal first-quarter release due before the open on November 2. It will be the first quarter under new CEO Kevin Buchel, the first clean read on equipment margins without a one-time tariff refund, and the first chance to see whether a newly flagged component-cost problem is moving from a talking point to a line item.

Usable Street estimates are hard to pin down, so the most useful benchmarks are the company's own recent results. A year ago, NAPCO earned $0.34 a share on $49.2 million of revenue. Last quarter it earned $0.50 on $55.8 million, but about $0.09 of that came from tariff refunds, which leaves an underlying pace closer to $0.41. Management has not issued formal guidance. The real bar is therefore the trajectory it described: steady recurring-revenue gains, firmer hardware margins and continued operating leverage. Clearing last year's number should be achievable. The more telling question is whether earnings can hold near that $0.41 underlying level without help from refunds.

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Top Earnings News

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The recent, most closely watched, earnings results.

O'Reilly Automotive Beat Consensus Estimates, Raises Guidance In-line with Estimates

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 4:30 PM
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) reported earnings of $0.97 per share on revenue of $5.12 billion for the third quarter ended September 2026. The consensus earnings estimate was $0.92 per share on revenue of $5.00 billion. The company beat consensus estimates by 5.43% while revenue grew 8.83% on a year-over-year basis.

The company said it now expects 2026 earnings of $3.25 to $3.35 per share on revenue of $19.0 billion to $19.3 billion. The company's previous guidance was earnings of $3.20 to $3.30 per share on revenue of $18.9 billion to $19.2 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $3.28 per share on revenue of $19.1 billion for the year ending December 31, 2026.

O'Reilly Automotive Inc is a specialty retailer of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment and accessories in the United States, selling its products to both do-it-yourself "DIY" and professional service provider customers.

ServiceNow Missed Expectations, Provides Revenue Guidance

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 4:10 PM
ServiceNow (NOW) reported earnings of $1.00 per share on revenue of $4.11 billion for the third quarter ended September 2026. The consensus earnings estimate was $1.02 per share on revenue of $4.09 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $1.08 per share. The company missed expectations by 7.41% while revenue grew 20.52% on a year-over-year basis.

The company said it expects fourth quarter subscription revenue of $4.245 billion to $4.255 billion. The current consensus estimate is total revenue $4.340 billion for the quarter ending December 31, 2026.

“This was more than another beat-and-raise quarter for ServiceNow, this was the inflection point for ServiceNow as the Super Intelligence Control Tower,” said ServiceNow Chairman and CEO Bill McDermott. “Our customers have validated our strategic relevance as the single harness for enterprise intelligence and security. The Control Tower is the elixir that simplifies tech debt, limits token overload and manages unprecedented cybersecurity risk. That’s why AI adoption is accelerating, surging our hybrid business model to $30 billion in RPO, growing 23 percent. What other company at the forefront of the agentic enterprise has no capital or compute constraints? This is a one-of-one, rule of 571 growth company firing on all cylinders.”

ServiceNow Inc is a provider of cloud-based solutions that define, structure, manage and automate services across the enterprise. Its services include a suite of applications built on proprietary platform.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Missed Expectations

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 4:10 PM
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) reported earnings of $0.27 per share on revenue of $3.29 billion for the third quarter ended September 2026. The consensus earnings estimate was $0.29 per share on revenue of $3.29 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $0.30 per share. The company missed expectations by 10.00% while revenue grew 9.65% on a year-over-year basis.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants, which serves a menu of burritos, tacos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla) and salads, made using fresh ingredients.

The Drift

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Upcoming Earnings

Big Tech Headlines a Jam-Packed Earnings Week as Chips and Energy Jockey for the Spotlight

October 24, 2026
MSFT GOOGL AMZN INTC SOFI SNDK
Buckle up, because this is one of those weeks where the market barely has time to catch its breath. The giants of technology take center stage, with Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon all stepping up to the plate within days of each other. The mood heading into these reports is a mixed bag. Alphabet looks like it has the wind at its back, buoyed by rising expectations and a steady track record, while Microsoft and Amazon carry a touch more nervous energy despite their undeniable momentum. Options traders are bracing for some fireworks, especially from the richly valued names where even a small stumble can send shares tumbling. Keep an eye on the chip and storage crowd too, where Sandisk, Seagate, and Intel are generating real buzz. Intel in particular has quietly turned a corner, with analysts warming up and the stock entering the week on firmer footing than it has enjoyed in some time.
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Recent Positive Earnings

XMTR 11.9% since the report




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