Costco heads into its fiscal fourth-quarter report carrying one of the more interesting tensions in retail right now: sales momentum has been accelerating for four straight quarters, yet the stock has fallen 8.6 percent since the last print while the S&P 500 gained slightly. That divergence is the central puzzle investors need this report to resolve.
Wall Street expects EPS of $6.48 on revenue of $94.78 billion, representing roughly 10 percent growth on both lines. The Earnings Whisper number sits marginally higher at $6.54, suggesting the bar is not dramatically elevated but skews slightly optimistic. Costco does not issue formal guidance, so the real benchmark is the trajectory management laid out last quarter, when net sales growth hit 11.6 percent, the fastest of the past four quarters, powered by record-breaking gasoline volumes and comps ex-gas and FX holding near 6.6 percent. If that pace decelerates meaningfully from Q3 levels, it would be the first crack in an otherwise strengthening demand story.