The Market's True Earnings Expectations

Go beyond the consensus and become a better stock picker with Earnings Whisper numbers, investor sentiment, and proprietary research and tools to help you capture the Post-Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD) and outperform the overall stock market. Plus, get the most accurate earnings dates, earnings news, and insights into how stocks react before and after earnings.



Most Anticipated Earnings Releases TM

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The most anticipated earnings releases for the week beginning September 28, 2026 are MU Micron Technology NKE NIKE CCL Carnival MTN Vail Resorts ACN Accenture

Monday Sep 28
Before the Open
IVA, GNS reporting before the open on Monday, September 28
After the Close
MTN, JEF, AIR, SANG reporting after the close on Monday, September 28
Tuesday Sep 29
Before the Open
CCL, KMX, UEC reporting before the open on Tuesday, September 29
After the Close
CNXC reporting after the close on Tuesday, September 29
Wednesday Sep 30
Before the Open
CAG, JBL, FDS reporting before the open on Wednesday, September 30
After the Close
MU, PRGS, BSET reporting after the close on Wednesday, September 30
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The Earnings Whisper® Number

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The market's true earnings expectation — and why beating the consensus estimate isn't enough.

Meme: beating the consensus estimate is not the same as beating expectations.

Analysts update their models constantly, but they rarely publish every revision. The Earnings Whisper® number captures what they actually expect — and across two decades and more than 144,000 published numbers, it has landed closer to actual reported earnings than the published consensus 69.7% of the time. Consequently, there is no statistical benefit to beating the consensus estimate.

Beat the Whisper and the estimate +1.9% Beat the Estimate but missed the Whisper −0.7%
Average day-of move, since February 1999.

Companies that beat the Whisper closed higher by an average of 1.9%. Those that cleared the published estimate but fell short of the Whisper closed lower 55.0% of the time. There is no statistical benefit to beating the consensus estimate — only the Whisper.

The Whisper Report®

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Sentiment Falls

Monday, September 21, 2026
Sentiment has turned bearish, which is bullish for stock prices, but it is the trend in sentiment that matters.
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Earnings Preview

MU Micron Technology is confirmed to report Wednesday, September 30, after the close.

Micron's Memory Supercycle Faces Its Toughest Test Yet as Stock Retreats From Highs

Micron heads into its fiscal fourth-quarter report riding one of the most dramatic guidance progressions in recent memory, yet the stock has fallen 15% since its last print even as the S&P 500 climbed nearly 5%. That divergence between operating momentum and share performance sets up an unusually pointed question for this release: has the market already priced in the good news, or is it losing confidence in a narrative that management has described in increasingly triumphant terms.

Consensus calls for $31.24 in earnings on $50.76 billion in revenue, essentially in line with management's own guidance of $30 to $32 per share and $49 billion to $51 billion issued last quarter. The Earnings Whisper of $34.14 sits meaningfully above the Street consensus, suggesting whisper-number watchers expect another beat rather than a mere in-line quarter. That said, Micron has trained investors to expect upside after three consecutive quarters of guidance that undershot actual results by wide margins, so a beat here may be viewed as table stakes rather than a fresh catalyst.

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Top Earnings News

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The recent, most closely watched, earnings results.

AAR Reported Earnings, Lowers Guidance

Monday, September 28, 2026 at 4:51 PM
AAR (AIR) reported earnings of $1.49 per share on revenue of $918.00 million for the fiscal first quarter ended August 2026. . Revenue grew 24.12% on a year-over-year basis.

The company said it expects fiscal 2027 revenue of approximately $3.64 billion, excluding LCP. The company's previous guidance was revenue of $3.64 billion to $3.77 billion, and the current consensus revenue estimate is $3.69 billion for the year ending May 31, 2027.

AAR Corp along with its subsidiaries is engaged in providing products & services including overhaul, repair & engineering services to aviation & government & defense markets. It is also engaged in design, manufacture, & repair of transportation pallets.

AAR Reported Earnings, Lowers Guidance

Monday, September 28, 2026 at 4:50 PM
AAR (AIR) reported earnings of $1.49 per share on revenue of $918.00 million for the fiscal first quarter ended August 2026. . Revenue grew 24.12% on a year-over-year basis.

The company said it expects fiscal 2027 revenue of approximately $3.64 billion, excluding LCP. The company's previous guidance was revenue of $3.64 billion to $3.77 billion, and the current consensus revenue estimate is $3.69 billion for the year ending May 31, 2027.

AAR Corp along with its subsidiaries is engaged in providing products & services including overhaul, repair & engineering services to aviation & government & defense markets. It is also engaged in design, manufacture, & repair of transportation pallets.

Jefferies Financial Group Beat Consensus Estimates

Monday, September 28, 2026 at 4:16 PM
Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) reported earnings of $1.09 per share on revenue of $3.23 billion for the fiscal third quarter ended August 2026. The consensus earnings estimate was $1.04 per share on revenue of $2.21 billion. The company beat consensus estimates by 4.81% while revenue grew 11.11% on a year-over-year basis.

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. is a diversified financial services company engaged in investment banking and capital markets, asset management and direct investing.

The Drift

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Upcoming Earnings

Chipmakers Sizzle While Nike Sweats It Out

September 26, 2026
MU NKE CCL ACN KMX MTN
This week's earnings parade features a fascinating split between the winners strutting in with confidence and the stragglers hoping to avoid a beating. Micron leads the technology charge with real swagger, riding a wave of optimism that has traders betting big on the memory-chip maker after several strong quarters. Jabil is another tech name walking in with its head held high, and CarMax rolls onto the lot looking like it could surprise the skeptics with a bullish tone that stands out from the pack. These are the companies where the mood music is upbeat, the recent track record is solid, and expectations, while high, seem earned rather than wishful. When a stock arrives with this kind of momentum, even a decent report can send it higher, though it also raises the bar for what counts as good news.
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Recent Positive Earnings

XMTR 12.8% since the report




Trusted Earnings Research Since 1998

For more than 25 years, investors and financial professionals have used Earnings Whispers to look beyond consensus estimates and better understand the expectations driving stock prices around earnings.

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