The Market's True Earnings Expectations

Go beyond the consensus and become a better stock picker with Earnings Whisper numbers, investor sentiment, and proprietary research and tools to help you capture the Post-Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD) and outperform the overall stock market. Plus, get the most accurate earnings dates, earnings news, and insights into how stocks react before and after earnings.



Most Anticipated Earnings Releases TM

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The most anticipated earnings releases for the week beginning October 22, 2026 are CAJPY Canon BE Bloom Energy MSFT Microsoft GOOGL Alphabet LMT Lockheed Martin

The Earnings Whisper® Number

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The market's true earnings expectation — and why beating the consensus estimate isn't enough.

Meme: beating the consensus estimate is not the same as beating expectations.

Analysts update their models constantly, but they rarely publish every revision. The Earnings Whisper® number captures what they actually expect — and across two decades and more than 144,000 published numbers, it has landed closer to actual reported earnings than the published consensus 69.7% of the time. Consequently, there is no statistical benefit to beating the consensus estimate.

Beat the Whisper and the estimate +1.9% Beat the Estimate but missed the Whisper −0.7%
Average day-of move, since February 1999.

Companies that beat the Whisper closed higher by an average of 1.9%. Those that cleared the published estimate but fell short of the Whisper closed lower 55.0% of the time. There is no statistical benefit to beating the consensus estimate — only the Whisper.

The Whisper Report®

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The Wrong Path

Monday, October 19, 2026
Fundamentals offer little evidence that the AI trade is over, but semiconductor price action tells a different story.
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Earnings Preview

CAJPY Canon is confirmed to report Tuesday, October 27, before the open.

Canon Tests Its Highs Into September-Quarter Results as Sentiment Turns Cautious

Canon heads into its September-quarter report with an unusual split between price and mood. The shares have climbed 7.7% since the company last reported, beating the S&P 500 by more than five percentage points, and now sit within a whisker of their post-earnings high. Yet sentiment among retail investors has soured, sliding to 28.3% bearish from 14.0% bearish ahead of the prior report. A stock that keeps rising while the crowd grows more skeptical raises the question this release must settle: is the rally resting on durable earnings power, or has it run ahead of the fundamentals?

The numbers set an undemanding hurdle on one measure and a tougher one on another. In the year-ago September quarter, Canon earned $0.48 per share on revenue of $7.49 billion. Last quarter it earned $0.89 per share on $7.41 billion in sales, nearly double the year-ago figure on slightly lower revenue. That gap is the heart of the setup. If Canon can deliver anything close to last quarter's profitability on a similar revenue base, the year-over-year comparison will look dramatic. But the more meaningful test is whether the margin structure behind that $0.89 holds, because the top line itself has not been growing. Revenue roughly flat against last year means earnings gains have to come from mix, pricing, cost discipline or currency rather than volume. No clear published consensus figure is available to anchor expectations, and management has not offered fresh quantitative guidance since the last report, so the market will judge the quarter largely against Canon's own recent run rate.

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Top Earnings News

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The recent, most closely watched, earnings results.

argenx SE Beat Consensus Estimates

Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 1:00 AM
argenx SE (ARGX) reported earnings of $7.80 per share on revenue of $1.75 billion for the third quarter ended September 2026. The consensus earnings estimate was $7.44 per share on revenue of $1.65 billion. The company beat consensus estimates by 4.84% while revenue grew 52.08% on a year-over-year basis.

argenx is a global immunology company committed to improving the lives of people suffering from severe autoimmune diseases and cancer.

Packaging Corporation of America Beat Expectations, Guides Above Estimates

Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 5:28 PM
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) reported earnings of $3.04 per share on revenue of $2.60 billion for the third quarter ended September 2026. The consensus earnings estimate was $2.95 per share on revenue of $2.56 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $2.99 per share. The company beat expectations by 1.67% while revenue grew 12.46% on a year-over-year basis.

The company said it expects fourth quarter earnings of approximately $2.81 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $2.79 per share for the quarter ending December 31, 2026.

Packaging Corp of America is a producer of container board and corrugated products in the United States. The Company also produces multi-color boxes and displays, as well as meat boxes and wax-coated boxes for the agricultural industry.

Southwest Airlines Beat Expectations, Guides Below Estimates

Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 4:17 PM
Southwest Airlines (LUV) reported earnings of $0.66 per share on revenue of $8.42 billion for the third quarter ended September 2026. The consensus earnings estimate was $0.61 per share on revenue of $8.26 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $0.50 per share. The company beat expectations by 32.00% while revenue grew 21.20% on a year-over-year basis.

The company said it expects fourth quarter non-GAAP earnings of $0.55 to $0.80 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.99 per share for the quarter ending December 31, 2026.

Southwest Airlines Co is an operator of passenger airline that provides scheduled air transportation in the United States and international markets.

The Drift

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Upcoming Earnings

Big Tech, Banks and Jets: Why This Earnings Week Could Set the Market's Tone

October 17, 2026
NFLX TSLA SPCX CLF BE ISRG
This is one of those weeks where Wall Street practically holds its breath. The marquee names are the ones everyone already has an opinion about. Netflix kicks things off with the kind of buzz that suggests traders expect good news from your weekend binge habit, while the social media giant behind your feed is heading in with quiet confidence and a tailwind at its back. On the industrial side, the aerospace and defense crowd looks sturdy, with the jet-engine maker and a cluster of missile-and-radar names walking in on solid footing. Carmakers are the wildcard: the electric-vehicle pioneer remains the stock everyone loves to argue about, and after a rough stretch the mood around it is cautiously warming, while the old-guard Detroit automaker is drawing surprisingly upbeat vibes. Expect fireworks either way, since options traders are bracing for some of these to swing hard the morning after.
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Recent Positive Earnings

XMTR -0.2% since the report




Trusted Earnings Research Since 1998

For more than 25 years, investors and financial professionals have used Earnings Whispers to look beyond consensus estimates and better understand the expectations driving stock prices around earnings.

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