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BlackBerry Beats Big and Raises Again on Record QNX Results, but a One-Time License and a Secure Communications Cut Complicate the Picture

BlackBerry delivered a decisive beat for its fiscal second quarter. Adjusted earnings of $0.07 per share topped both the $0.04 consensus and the $0.04 Earnings Whisper number by 75.0%, and earnings grew 75.0% year over year. Revenue of $163.3 million beat the $143.0 million consensus by 14.2% and rose 26.0%, up from $152.9 million in the first quarter. Management also raised full-year guidance for the second straight quarter. The central tension is that BlackBerry is now two businesses moving in opposite directions. QNX is accelerating and landing the largest wins in its history. Secure Communications stalled badly enough to force a guidance cut, and a non-recurring licensing deal flattered the quarter's headline.

The quality of the beat deserves scrutiny. Licensing revenue jumped to $22.1 million from $6.6 million a year ago on a one-time arrangement. That $15.5 million gain accounts for nearly half of the $33.7 million year-over-year revenue increase. It also produced $20.0 million of the company's $47.0 million adjusted EBITDA. Management expects licensing to revert to roughly $6 million per quarter, which is why third-quarter revenue guidance of $143 million to $154 million sits below the quarter just reported. GAAP results got an additional lift from a $1.3 million tax provision, versus $7.9 million in the first quarter, helping GAAP net income reach $33.9 million. None of this erases the improvement. Operating cash flow of $29.3 million compared with $3.4 million a year earlier, cash and investments rose to $447.1 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 29% from 24% in the first quarter.

QNX is the real story, and here the underlying trend is unambiguously stronger. Revenue hit a record $80.3 million, up 27%. Growth has now run at +10%, +20%, +26% and +27% over the last four quarters. Segment adjusted gross margin reached 87%, versus 86% in the first quarter and 84% in the fourth quarter. Segment EBITDA margin jumped to 36% from 27% even as QNX research and development spending rose by half year over year. Full-year QNX revenue guidance moved to $315 million to $325 million, from $295 million to $312 million, and segment EBITDA guidance to $95 million to $105 million, from $74 million to $86 million.

The forward catalysts strengthened meaningfully. Alloy Kore went from "no wins yet" two quarters ago to a Coretura (Volvo/Daimler Truck) win that adds over $100 million to the royalty backlog. Management said the win carries roughly three times QNX OS pricing per instance. On the call, management also cited an Uber robotaxi design win, said first-half design-win value exceeded any prior full fiscal year, and noted that new SDP 8.0 contracts increasingly carry minimum volume commitments, which should improve visibility and cash timing. The caveat is timing. Coretura royalties are back-end loaded and not material to fiscal 2027, and guidance implies QNX revenue declines sequentially in the fourth quarter.

Bears have legitimate ammunition in Secure Communications. Revenue grew just 2% to $60.9 million after rising 24% in the first quarter. Segment gross margin fell to 61% on device mix, and EBITDA margin dropped to 13% from 27% in the first quarter. Net retention has slid from 94% to 92% to 91% over three quarters, and ARR of $221 million was only about $1 million higher sequentially. Management cut full-year segment guidance to $260 million to $270 million in revenue and $50 million to $58 million in EBITDA. It cited U.S. federal and Canada-U.S. trade uncertainty while stressing that nothing material has been observed yet.

The market setup is more complicated than the surprise implies. Shares spiked to a 52-week high of $13.59 on July 1, shortly after the prior report, then gave back most of that move. The stock touched $7.46 on September 14 and entered this report at $8.38. That leaves shares 13.8% below the post-prior-report open and 38.3% below the high, though still 35% above the 200-day moving average. Investor sentiment remained positive but weakened, falling from 0.147 to 0.073, a modest absolute move that left expectations lukewarm going in. The Earnings Whispers trend readings are mixed: momentum is positive, while AVWAP remains negative.

The bottom line is that BlackBerry's quarter strengthened the QNX growth thesis, with record revenue, expanding margins, a landmark Alloy Kore win and a second consecutive raise in full-year revenue, EBITDA, EPS and cash flow targets. Investors should nonetheless discount the one-time licensing boost and treat Secure Communications as a genuine drag rather than a stable ballast. With the stock having already round-tripped a large rally and sentiment cooling, the burden now falls on QNX to carry the story through a softer, licensing-light second half.

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