Figure Technology Solutions heads into its third-quarter report with an awkward split between its business and its stock. Last quarter management described a lending marketplace that was accelerating on nearly every operating measure and raised its volume outlook sharply. Since then the shares have fallen about 31%, trailing the S&P 500 by nearly 29 percentage points. The report before the open on November 12 needs to show whether that gap reflects real cracks in the model or a market that has priced the company's falling take rate more harshly than its growth.
The Street expects revenue of about $249.5 million, up nearly 60% from a year ago and ahead of the $225.6 million reported last quarter. Earnings are a different story. Consensus calls for $0.31 per share, down about 9% from the year-ago $0.34 and below last quarter's $0.37. That is the clearest sign that analysts expect growth to come with thinner per-dollar economics. Part of the pressure is already known. The company closed a $600 million senior note at 8.5% in July to fund the Kiavi acquisition, which adds interest cost. It is also carrying about $600 million of loans on its balance sheet, a choice management said trims margin by roughly 1.7 points.
Volume is the first test. Management guided third-quarter consumer loan marketplace volume to $4.8 billion to $5.2 billion. The prior quarter's guide was $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion, and the company beat its top end by reaching $4.3 billion. July alone produced $1.7 billion, and weekly applications passed $1 billion for the first time, so the bar for another beat is high but visible. Landing near or above the top of the range would confirm that the triple-digit growth streak is structural rather than a one-quarter surge. Partner growth matters for the same reason. The count jumped by more than 100 last quarter to 489, and another strong addition would show the funnel is still widening.
The bigger debate is pricing. Net take rate slipped to 3.6% from 3.8% and is guided to sit at the low end of the 3.5% to 4% band. Management attributed the decline to mix rather than price cuts, pointing to several factors. Its largest partners are moving to Figure Connect, the lowest take-rate channel, faster than expected. First-lien lending is growing, and higher rates are weighing on gain-on-sale. Connect mix reached 65%, and the medium-term target was raised to about 70%. That makes further drift plausible. What would support management's case is a take rate that holds around 3.5% rather than breaking below it, alongside the stronger contribution margins management cited. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 55% last quarter, or about 52% excluding a one-time gain, against a 60% goal. Progress toward that target despite heavier financing would be persuasive.
Additional evidence will come from the newer growth initiatives. These include Democratize Prime's push into third-party takeout, the SMB pool launched in July, and any update on the timing and integration plans for Kiavi. Management said Kiavi should add roughly 40% to volume and about $100 million of EBITDA. Because those real estate loans are not agency-eligible, investors also need clarity on how the deal reshapes the blended take rate.
Sentiment has moved from modestly bearish before the last report to modestly bullish now, even as the stock trades near $22. That is well below its 200-day average of about $34 and only a few percent above its post-earnings low of $20.93. The market is clearly skeptical of the economics, even if some investors sense value. The central question is whether Figure can show that faster volume is translating into earnings power, not just activity. If volume clears guidance while the take rate stabilizes and margins hold, the growth narrative stays intact. Another step down in take rate with no offsetting margin gain would make the sell-off look justified.