The market's true earnings expectation — and why beating the consensus estimate isn't enough.
Analysts update their models constantly, but they rarely publish every revision.
The Earnings Whisper® number captures what they actually expect — and
across two decades and more than 143,000 published numbers,
it has landed closer to actual reported earnings than the published consensus
69.7% of the time. Consequently, there is
no statistical benefit to beating the consensus estimate.
Average day-of move, since February 1999.
Companies that beat the Whisper closed higher by an average of 1.9%.
Those that cleared the published estimate but fell short of the Whisper closed
lower 54.8% of the time. There is no
statistical benefit to beating the consensus estimate — only the Whisper.
Earnings season is beginning with mixed signals, as weakening guidance contrasts with resilient market breadth and an AI investment cycle that continues to surprise to the upside.
Cloudastructure, Inc. (CSAI) reported a loss of $0.14 per share on revenue of $1.32 million for the second quarter ended June 2026. The consensus revenue estimate was revenue of $1.50 million.
Cloudastructure’s advanced award-winning security platform utilizes a scalable cloud-based architecture that features cloud video surveillance with proprietary, state-of-the-art AI/ML analytics, and a seamless remote guarding solution.
Autoliv (ALV) reported earnings of $2.43 per share on revenue of $2.80 billion for the second quarter ended June 2026. The consensus earnings estimate was $2.34 per share on revenue of $2.76 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $2.45 per share. The company missed expectations by 0.82% while revenue grew 3.28% on a year-over-year basis.
The company said it continues to expect 2026 revenue of approximately $11.14 billion. The current consensus revenue estimate is $11.15 billion for the year ending December 31, 2026.
Autoliv Inc is a developer, manufacturer and supplier to the automotive industry of automotive safety systems. The Company' products include passive safety systems and active safety systems.
Travelers Companies (TRV) reported earnings of $10.04 per share on revenue of $12.15 billion for the second quarter ended June 2026. The consensus earnings estimate was $5.31 per share on revenue of $12.28 billion. The company beat consensus estimates by 89.08% while revenue grew 0.31% on a year-over-year basis.
Travelers Companies Inc through its subsidiaries provides commercial & personal property and casualty insurance products and
services to businesses, government units, associations and individuals.
