AEO American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.

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American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. Q2 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator
Conference Operator
Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the AEO Incorporated Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Alexis Tragos, Vice President of Corporate Communications. Please go ahead.
Alexis Tragos
Vice President of Corporate Communications
Good afternoon, everyone. Joining me today for our prepared remarks are Jay Schottenstein, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Jen Foyle, President, Executive Creative Director for American Eagle & Airy, Ravi Thanawala, Chief Financial Officer, and Mike Mathias, Strategic Advisor. Before we begin today's call, I need to remind you that we will make certain forward-looking statements. These statements are based upon information that represents the company's current expectations or beliefs. The results actually realized may differ materially based on risk factors included in our SEC filing. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as required by law. You can find our second quarter investor presentation on our corporate website at www.aeo-inc.com in the investor relations section. Now, I'll turn the call over to Jay.
Jay Schottenstein
Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Alexis. and good afternoon everyone. The second quarter represented another important step forward for AEO. We built on the strength of our portfolio making progress at American Eagle while Erie continued to deliver outstanding performance. The second quarter came in at the high end of our expectations with revenue of $1.4 billion and comparable sale growth of 6%. operated an income of $211 million, included a net tariff refund benefit of approximately $161 million. We remained focused on driving stronger profitability across the business, and these results underscored the strength and relevance of our brands and the progress against our priorities. At Aerie, which includes offline, momentum continued. Aerie delivered revenue of 25% total growth and comparable sales grew 19%, reflecting the broad-based demand across categories and channels. We remain confident in the long-term opportunity for Aerie and our ability to reach new customers. Turning to American Eagle, total revenue grew 1% with comps declining 1% in improvement from the first quarter. AEMins posted its fourth consecutive quarter positive comps, seemingly continued traction and relevance. We are moving in the right direction, yet there remains work to do. Our progress is fueled by our people. I'd like to extend my gratitude to our associates for their relentless dedication and commitment to our brands and customers. Before I turn it over to Ravi, I want to take a moment to thank Mike for his many years of service to AEO. Mike has been and will continue to be a trusted partner to me, and I'm grateful for his leadership his commitment and the many contributions he has made to our business over the years. I'm also very pleased to welcome Ravi to the team. He brings comprehensive financial and operating expertise, a fresh perspective, and a deep understanding of what drives long-term shareholder value. As we look at the opportunities ahead, I'm excited about the breadth of our experience and judgment he brings to the team as we work together to make AER stronger, More productive business over time. Now I'll turn the call over to Ravi.
Ravi Thanawala
Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Jay. I'm excited to step into the CFO role. I've been at AEO for just a few weeks, so I'm spending a great deal of time listening, learning, and getting to know the business and our teams. What attracted me to AEO was the strength of its brands, the connection to its customers, and the opportunity I see to create meaningful long-term value for shareholders. I'll be focused on driving durable value creation by connecting brand growth with disciplined execution, stronger profitability, and the thoughtful allocation of resources. Those are the areas where I'm spending time on with Jay and the leadership team as I get deeper into the business. It's still early, and I want to be thoughtful about drawing conclusions. However, I'm excited by the opportunity I see at AEO and look forward to sharing more about my perspective and priorities over time. I also wanted to thank Mike and the entire finance team for the support they've given me through this transition. Mike has been extremely generous with his time and his knowledge of AEO, and I'm grateful to have the benefit of his experience and perspective. Given how recently I joined the company, Mike will be taking you through the details of the second quarter results and the outlook. I've spent considerable time with Mike and the team reviewing the outlook and the assumptions supporting it. I'm comfortable with the company's expectations for the balance of the year. Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Jen.
Jen Foyle
President, Executive Creative Director for American Eagle & Aerie
Thank you, Ravi, and good afternoon, everyone. Before I get into the brand details, I wanted to share my appreciation to our entire organization. Their passion for our brands, our products, and our customers shows up every day, and I am proud of the work they are doing. Arian Offline delivered another outstanding quarter with broad strength across the business and tremendous response from our customers. At American Eagle, we made progress from the first quarter with continued strength in men's. There's still work to do, yet I am encouraged by the opportunity ahead. Turning first to Aerie and Offline, we delivered another exceptional quarter. Comparable sales increased 19% and total revenue grew 25% to $536 million. What I'm most excited about is the breadth and quality of that growth. We saw strength across channels and categories with growth in core apparel, intimates, and activewear. There was a consistent demand in Aerie, apparel and tees, tanks, fleece, and bottoms. Head to toe outfitting, curated monthly drops, sleep to street, and wear now fabrications resonated with our customers. Mix and match, summer brights, stripes, and a little leopard all worked. We are also pleased with continued growth in Offline's Cloud Sleeves franchise, sports bras, and incredibly strong results across bottoms. I love seeing this breadth because it tells us the customer is responding to the complete lifestyle offering, not just one category or one trend. Our core Intimates business also remains strong throughout the quarter. We continue to win with what Aerie has stood for from the beginning, real comfort, Customers responded to our Focus on Fabrication and the 20 Years of Happy Booties anniversary campaign. In July, we also introduced our new Float Bra Collection, designed for weightless feel. Float complements our structured bra franchise and gives customers a new way to experience Aerie's signature comfort. Our customer base continues to grow. We are expanding the Aerie community and deepening their engagement with us. Our airy reel makers continue to be an important part of that connection. Across the quarter, we nearly doubled the size of the advocate program and found fresh new ways to bring new customers to the brand and engage them. As we move into the third quarter, we are doing something I love to see. We are comping the comp. We are sustaining growth against increasingly strong comparisons and seeing strength across categories while continuing to expand our customer base. So now turning to American Eagle. We are seeing steady traction as we actively work to refine our strategies. We delivered sequential improvement from the first quarter, yet there is opportunity to build on our progress and further accelerate our performance. Men's continues to deliver as we posted our fourth consecutive quarter of positive comps. Growth was driven by strength across all bottoms categories, with tops continuing to meet our expectations. This demonstrates that our focus and strategies to restore top line growth in the AE men's business is paying off. In women's, customers responded well to our focus on outfitting, particularly pairing tiny tops with oversized bottoms. We leaned into the cargo trend and fashion bottoms performed positively. In women's denim, new fashion fits, including wide leg straight and low rise, gained strong acceptance. and moving forward, we recognize where there is still opportunity to restore consistent growth across categories. AE's brand awareness and cultural significance remains strong and the active customer file continues to grow. Our marketing strategies are built on multiple touch points, tapping into differing interests, rituals and experiences. We have strategically invested in our presence at the mall as a place to shop gather and connect on campus with our sorority partners to own a stake in Rush Talk and in sports on the biggest stage of the year with global brand ambassador, Lamine Lamal. We spent the last four quarters investing in brand awareness to drive purchase consideration and now we are shifting our marketing dollars into conversion driving tactics. Ultimately, this is about showing up for our customers during their biggest moments Building the Wardrobes While Building Our Community. And looking ahead to the second half of this year, our strategic priorities across AEO are clear. Deliver best-in-class products, maintain our investment and marketing tactics that drive conversion, remain focused on our inventory management, and improve margin health. We are also making strategic investments in product and marketing as we build towards AEO's 50th anniversary in 2027. We enter the third quarter with momentum in Aerie and Offline, a game plan to make clear improvements in American Eagle, and a highly engaged customer community across all brands. And I'm excited about what the brands can accomplish together. Aerie's consistent growth, the opportunity we see in Offline, and American Eagle's deep customer relationships give us multiple ways to serve our customers across more categories, occasions, and moments in their lives. Each brand has its own identity and distinct opportunities. Together, they give AEO a springboard to grow. We have talented teams across our stores, distribution centers, and corporate offices bringing these brands to life every day. And I have tremendous confidence in what we can achieve together. Thank you all of our associates for all of your hard work. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mike.
Mike Mathias
Strategic Advisor
Thanks, Jen, and good afternoon, everyone. Driven by strong momentum across Aerie, our second quarter revenue and operating income hit the top end of our guidance. As you heard from Jay and Jen, we're zeroed in on opportunities for the AE brand and are continuing to fuel Aerie's exceptional growth. I'm going to take you through the financial results, including the impact of the tariff refunds recognized in the quarter, and then discuss our outlook for the balance of the year. All reported results include the impact of tariff refunds. Second quarter consolidated revenue of $1.4 billion, increased 8% to last year, with comparable sales growing 6%. Aerie Strong Business continued with total sales growing by 25%, and comparable sales up 19%, with growth across channels. AE Total sales increased 1%, with comparable sales declining 1%. Gross profit dollars of $672 million rose 34% from last year, and gross margin of 48.7% increased 980 basis points. Included in gross profit this year is a net benefit of $179 million related to parafree funds, which drove 1,300 basis points of the gross margin expansion. Merchandise margins leveraged 330 basis points with improvement in ARRI, offset by markdowns in AE, as we previously guided to for the second quarter. STNA dollars increased 19% and 290 basis points to a rate of 29.6%, inclusive of $18 million of incentive expense attributable to tariff refunds. The remaining increase is primarily a result of planned investments and advertising. Depreciation decreased slightly year over year at $52 million compared to $55 million last year. We recorded a second quarter operating profit of $211 million compared to $103 million last year. Included in operating profit this year is a net benefit of $161 million related to tariff refunds. Interest expense increased primarily due to the sale of tariff claims as discussed last quarter. Other income increased due to unrealized gain on equity method investments. The second quarter tax rate was approximately 25% and EPS was 79 cents. Consolidated inventory cost was up 14% with units up 9%. The increase in costs includes the impact of incremental tariffs this year. Unit inventory plans will continue to be rebalanced between brands and categories for the remainder of the year. In the second quarter, as Jay noted, we continue to make long-term investments in our business while returning cash to shareholders. Second quarter CapEx totaled $66 million, and the company returned $21 million to shareholders during the quarter via the quarterly dividend. We ended the quarter with approximately $148 million in cash and investments, and $783 million of total liquidity, including our revolver. Before turning to our outlook, I want to note that Ravi has been engaged with the team in reviewing our plans and expectations for the balance of the year. The outlook I'll discuss today reflects the company's current expectations. For the third quarter, we expect comparable sales growth in the mid to high single digits, with area and offline continuing in the high teens to 20% range and American Eagle approximately flat. Gross margin is expected to be similar to last year, with full-year gross margin up year-over-year. Operating income for the third quarter is expected to be in the range of $110 to $115 million, with SG&A expense up in the high single digits. The tariff rate assumption for the rest of the year reflects the Section 301 tariff implemented in late June. For the full year, we expect operating income in the range of $540 to $550 million, based on consolidated comparable sales growth in the mid-single digits. In closing, we're committed to building on the momentum in Arian Offline, accelerating improvement at American Eagle, and unlocking greater profitability across the business. With that, we'll open it up for questions.
Operator
Conference Operator
We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then 1 on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star, then 2. Please limit yourselves to one question. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question is from Jay Soule with UBS. Please go ahead.
Jay Soule
Analyst, UBS
Great. Thank you so much. Jen, I want to ask you about the women's denim business at American Eagle. Can you just maybe dive into that a little bit more? Tell us about how that business developed over the quarter, what you see happening in Q3 just from a sales standpoint and kind of what's driving that and the opportunity for continued progress from here. And then also maybe the second part to that question is you talked a little bit about third quarter. I think you said you've seen trends continue. If you can sort of clarify that a little bit. I mean, where do you see Aerie so far in Q3 and how is that factoring into your guide? And same question for both brands. Thank you.
Jen Foyle
President, Executive Creative Director for American Eagle & Aerie
Thanks. Look, we're seeing sequential improvement in denim. Sorry, I have a little bit of a cold. But we are seeing sequential improvement. As I mentioned in my last earnings call, we definitely need to pivot. We needed to pivot, and we pivoted quite nicely into the fits that we're working. 100%. Really, it was low rise that we really wanted to get into that business. And as you saw, that was our marketing launch for back to school. So really excited about how we repositioned denim. What we are needing to work through right now is just some of the older fits and really just rebalancing our inventory. It's as simple as that. And our numbers reflect the guide in AE. As we look to Aerie, I mean, we continue to launch new ideas in Aerie. All categories are working. All categories are firing. We can't ask for more. I mean, these numbers, you know, we're proving... I love what I said, right? We're proving we can comp the comp. And I think the team's really... Geared Up for Holiday. We're seeing, you know, nice continuation of the sales comp, again, reflective in the guide. And with all our new launches, we relaunched our booty campaign, our undies campaign, Intimates is gaining share, our float bra launch. We're going to really work on bra innovation. That's a new playbook for us. We're going to reinvigorate it because we're excited about some new ideas in bras. I think we're really going to compete on that end with really launching ideas that I think our customers will are going to really embrace. So some new ideas that are coming your way, and that will build into next year. And then, of course, apparel. Apparel has been really on fire. The numbers are incredible, and they like completing the outfit, right? We're building them from inside out, and that's what we do in Aerie. And offline certainly has seen incredible growth as well.
Jay Soule
Analyst, UBS
Got it. Okay. Thank you so much.
Operator
Conference Operator
The next question is from Matthew Boss with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Amanda Douglas
Analyst, JP Morgan (on behalf of Matthew Boss)
Thanks. It's Amanda Douglas on for Matt. Jen, could you speak to the difference in merchandise margin performance within the quarter with improvement at Aerie offset by the American Eagle brand? And what are you specifically seeing on markdowns by brand entering back to school?
Jen Foyle
President, Executive Creative Director for American Eagle & Aerie
Sure. We've seen a little pressure, as Mike mentioned, on seasonal ideas in AE. So we continue to see a little of that pressure as we go into Q3. So we're working through that. Again, right-sizing our inventory. And Aerie's been doing an outstanding job leveraging this customer base that's growing, our brand awareness. That's another thing that I didn't mention in my last answer, the brand awareness in Aerie. We're still only at 59%. Albeit it's growing, there's still a lot of opportunity for runway in Aerie. But pivoting back, as we think about the promotional cadence, Aerie has done a really nice job balancing out their promotions, leveraging the newness. They've been doing new drops, and we've been easily able to reconstruct the promotional activity between brands so that we're balancing this out.
Operator
Conference Operator
The next question is from Kelly Crago with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Kelly Crago
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking our question here. So just wanted to dig in a little bit further on the third quarter comp guide of mid to high. If you could just break out expectations by brand and any color again more explicitly about what you're seeing quarter to date at the two banners. I think then you're speaking to some maybe higher promos at Eagles than you were anticipating and how that might impact the for the margins in the third quarter. Thanks.
Mike Mathias
Strategic Advisor
Hey, Kelly, I can take that. I think Jen mentioned in her prior answer that comp guidance by brand is in line with where we are quarters a day, so AE relatively flat, so some sequential improvement from what we just reported for Q2. Area in the high teens to 20%, again, similar to what we just reported in Q2. So the trend continues there, and and also, as Jen said, that means, you know, comping the comp and actually maintaining comp trend against tougher compares, which is what the team has been going after. So we have a good proof point here according to data and area on that front. And then, yes, you know, the merged margin performance in Q2 and some of the markdowns in AE that we guided to back in May alongside, you know, our $45 to $50 million guidance. Those did come through kind of in line with expectations. and then resulting in us hitting that high end of our opt-in guide. And then for Q3, we do have, as Jen said, we're definitely still looking to rebalance some inventory. We have some markdowns in the Q3 Merge Margin Guide for AE, some potential markdowns as we go through that work. And that's covered in our Gross Margin Guide of relatively flat for the third quarter. And ARIES continuing its nice performance there on the Merge Margin line. So again, a little bit of a mixed brand output where ARIES maintaining strength in margin, AE, you know, definitely getting back to some strength, and we do have a little bit of markdown coverage for some of this inventory work that still needs to be done.
Kelly Crago
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets
Got it. And then just so I'm understanding, with the tariff refund, I noticed you said something about, yeah, I mean, like you're recruiting some higher incentive comps here. Can you just kind of walk through how that plays out in the high single-digit and Shinae Guy, I think is for three key apologies if I'm missing some of the details here. Is that like related to the Higher Incentive Comp marketing, anything else there? And then how does this sort of play on the fourth quarter as well? Thanks. And that's all I got.
Mike Mathias
Strategic Advisor
Sure. Yes, we did book in the second quarter against tariff refunds some incentive comp commensurate with the refund in line with our full year income targets tied to those incentive plans. Accrual for the back half, third and fourth quarter, I think I've guided to it now back in March and then again in May, that elevated accrual is up against more because it's up against a lower than historical result last year. So this path we're on in terms of that accrual is kind of more average or more historical. There's no impact in the third and fourth quarter to anything tied to refunds. So that was isolated against the refund benefit that we saw in the second quarter, any kind of incremental number. So the back half, SG&A, we got in third quarter up high single. That includes, again, the impact of that more historical or average incentive accrual versus a lower accrual in history last year. And with the rest of the line, advertising relatively in line as a rate of sale in the third quarter, some leverage in the fourth quarter. As we pass through, look at ST&A on a go-forward on a 12-month basis, advertising, we're lapping this elevated spend. As of this quarter, as we look forward on a go-forward basis, advertising will be a leverage line item into 2027. And as we normally get past these next couple quarters, a bit of an apples and oranges incentive accrual impact that will also be a leverage line item as we go into 2027. So as we look at a 12-month basis and for the full fiscal 2027 period, we're looking to be back to the position where we're leveraging SG&A at a minimum at a mid-single digit comp, but targeting a low to mid-single in total. But again, the team and Ravi will provide more color on that go forward and specifically when we give guidance for 27 in March as usual.
Kelly Crago
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets
Got it. Thanks. Best of luck.
Operator
Conference Operator
The next question is from John Keefer with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
John Keefer
Analyst, Goldman Sachs
Hey, good afternoon. Thank you, guys. You guys gave color about Eagle and mentioned that men sounded good across the board. Women's bottoms sounded good from what I heard. I'm just wondering what drove the negative comp, and then I have a follow-up.
Jen Foyle
President, Executive Creative Director for American Eagle & Aerie
Women's bottoms has made improvements, so why we still mix the business. Actually, other bottoms, so that means pants. Cargos, for instance, have done exceptionally well, but there's still some balance to do in denim. But we are excited about the momentum in denim and what we've seen headed into Q3, so we're excited about that.
John Keefer
Analyst, Goldman Sachs
Got it. And then you guys mentioned in your inventory comments some rebalancing going to take place and some continued promo activity extending into 3Q a little bit. I'm wondering, is that... Is that entirely overhang from the 1Q inventory in Women's Bottoms, or was there also a little bit of overhang from 2Q that's moving now through 3Q?
Jen Foyle
President, Executive Creative Director for American Eagle & Aerie
It's primarily concentrated on some seasonal businesses, shorts being the number one, and there is some fashion that we need to ensure that we're clearing.
John Keefer
Analyst, Goldman Sachs
All right, great. Thank you, guys.
Operator
Conference Operator
The next question is from Dana Telsey with Telsey Advisory Group. Please go ahead.
Dana Telsey
Analyst, Telsey Advisory Group
Hi, good afternoon, everyone. As you think about the later back-to-school time period, any assessment of if that had any impact on sales in either of the businesses? And then as you think about stores versus online, how is the performance for each business, and the metrics, traffic conversion in stores versus online, and how the remodels are performing? Thank you.
Mike Mathias
Strategic Advisor
Thanks, Dana. I think with us reporting today, we're through the full Labor Day period and Labor Day shift. So it's a good sense of kind of where we are quarter to date accounting for those shifts. And we'll pass really all the peak back to school periods, too, even though there were shifts within August and shifts here in early September. For the most part, we've got line of sight to those. So again, the guidance by brand and in total, kind of the mid to high single digit comp for the quarter and the guidance by brand is commensurate with that quarter to day trend. And at this point, we've seen, for the most part, any kind of impact from shifts. Stores versus online business. I'll start with Aerie. Aerie is positive across the board. I think I used the description last quarter that all the conditional formatting is green. That's still the case that we're seeing here for the day. Stores, digital, traffic in both channels, AUR, UPT, AOV, customer talents, you name it, all going in the right direction with strength across channels, strength across categories, strength across metrics. AE had a flattish result with guidance. Stores are definitely on the lower side of that, and digital is stronger. So that's what we've kind of seen for a few quarters now. Seeing that quarter to date here still in Q3. Stores have gotten better. So, you know, against the negative one comp in Q2, what we've seen quarter to date here in Q3 is stores coming back stronger. We tend to see that during these peak periods. We are a destination in them all. during back to school and holiday. We'll see how that plays out the rest of this quarter. So a little more rebalancing between channels versus what we saw in the second quarter, but stores still on the lower side of the average.
Operator
Conference Operator
The next question is from Jonna Kim with TD Cowan. Please go ahead.
Jonna Kim
Analyst, TD Cowen
Thank you for taking our question. Jen, just on the Aries side for the holidays, I know you had a very strong holiday last year with pajamas and other How are you just thinking about the product assortment this year? And then especially on the Eagle side, is there anything that you're doing differently also around the holiday season? Thank you.
Jen Foyle
President, Executive Creative Director for American Eagle & Aerie
Yeah, you know, in both brands, we're very excited about, honestly, the brand health for both brands has been extremely positive. So let's start with that. So what we're working on the American Eagle side is really converting those customers and entertaining them. and we're very focused on getting them to stores. This is when we really gear up. I do think long legs are gonna build into Q3 and into Q4, so with AE, that should be hopefully positive and some optimism there. Again, still eight weeks to go in this quarter, but we're not into full long legs yet either, so I think we have some opportunity there. The key items that the teams have worked through, the new ideas, All of our fun ideas that we do during the holiday season in both brands, I think we're really going to excite the customer there. Color, optimism, fun. Aerie is going to continue to do its drops as well as AE. All the Nuna's drops have been working. It's new ways to re-engage our customers and get them into the stores. And I think we have a lot brewing for the holiday season.
Jonna Kim
Analyst, TD Cowen
One more follow-up, Jen, on the ARI side. Any color on how Intimates perform and how you feel about the assortment there?
Jen Foyle
President, Executive Creative Director for American Eagle & Aerie
Very nicely. We're excited what we're seeing in Intimates. There is some market share gain, and we're really focused on newness in bras as we move forward. Sports bras have been working well, other bras, but we really want to gain credit for all the innovation we do in our core bras, and I think there'll be a lot of work and some new innovation that you'll see on the go forward. Keeping in mind, as we head into Q4, we definitely dive into other categories as well. It's a gift-giving season, and I think Aerie does it best. Thank you.
Operator
Conference Operator
The next question is from Adrian Yee with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Angus Kelleher
Analyst, Barclays (covering for Adrian Yee)
Hi, this is Angus Kelleher on for Adrian Yee. Jen, you mentioned Aerie brand awareness is still around 59% despite the strong growth. What's the... Thank you. We're not going to really disclose our ad spend contribution. However, if I looked at AE's brand awareness, which is roughly 76%, look at that gap right there and think about the comp set Aerie is able to drive.
Jen Foyle
President, Executive Creative Director for American Eagle & Aerie
I'm pretty excited about the opportunity there. Our goal is to get it, you know, at least equal if not exceed the brand awareness that we see in our portfolio. What I will say, the teams are up to everything. I mean, from in-store events to our double down on digital spend, which I think has been really optimized, you know, connecting with our customers, building on our area real makers, building on our advocacy program. Everything is really, you know, we're firing on all cylinders and the customer and the community is really responding. This is where the magic happens in Erie. This community that we're able to build and retain and add the spend, our spend is up per customer, double digits in line with these numbers that you're seeing. So I think the team, you know, it's our secret sauce, so we don't share that, but I think the team knows how to deliver on this.
Angus Kelleher
Analyst, Barclays (covering for Adrian Yee)
Great, great. Thank you. And then just a quick clarifier for Mike and Ravi. Buying an occupancy, or BOW, they leveraged about 150 basis points last quarter, but were roughly flat this quarter. I'm curious if there's anything to call out there regarding distribution costs, occupancy, or anything else like that. And is that leverage plan to come back in the back half? Thank you.
Mike Mathias
Strategic Advisor
Yeah, I think for the second, what you'd expect in the third and fourth quarter to be similar to second quarter. First quarter, there was a little bit of shift between things with kind of the disposition or the wind down of our quiet third quarter logistics business. So the BOW line, I'd expect from here to have a similar result from a leverage perspective that we saw here in the second quarter. With more work to come, teams are constantly, you know, there's rent, delivery, distribution costs that are in that bucket of expenses. There's cross-functional teams still in place working on all those line items since our expense initiative a few years ago, and that's still in place.
Angus Kelleher
Analyst, Barclays (covering for Adrian Yee)
That helps a lot. Best of luck.
Operator
Conference Operator
Thank you. The next question is from Rick Patel with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Rick Patel
Analyst, Raymond James
Thank you. Good afternoon. Can you unpack your expectations for gross margins a little further? How do we think about the puts and takes in Q3 and if that differs from your Q4 plans? I know that inventory cleanup is ongoing, so curious if that's done within Q3, if that's something that spills over into Q4.
Mike Mathias
Strategic Advisor
Yeah, Lee, I'll provide some additional detail there. So I think in general, we're looking for areas continued strong performance on the merged margin line to continue. AE, again, definite improvement from the first half of the year, some placeholder markdowns to cover us as we work through some of this inventory balancing. I just hit the BOW line item, similar expectations in the third and fourth quarter as the second quarter kind of been relatively in line to last year as a rate. I think the other moving parts, we do have some hedge in there, I'll call it, or the potential for some freight fuel surcharge. Impact, so we believe we're covered there. We don't know for sure exactly where things are going. Foyle is over $100 a barrel again, but we want to make sure we're covered there, not surprised by anything, nothing significant to date, but, you know, the potential for that to happen is covered. And then from a tariff impact perspective, you know, Q3 will be kind of a negligible difference to last year, again, with these, you know, the kind of the rates in place just announced in June versus kind of a partial quarter impact last year. The dollar difference is pretty negligible in the third quarter. And then at that 12.5 rate for fourth quarter, up against kind of full AIPA tariffs, could be a little upside, but we're also, you know, we know that there's still kind of analysis and studies being done, potential for some increase to those tariffs in the fourth quarter, some impact to the fourth quarter. If it doesn't happen, could be some upside there. So gross margin in general, all those ins and outs relatively flat for the third quarter. Modest improvement in the fourth quarter in the guide.
Rick Patel
Analyst, Raymond James
Thanks very much.
Operator
Conference Operator
The next question is from Alex Stratton with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Alex Stratton
Analyst, Morgan Stanley
Perfect. Thanks so much. Maybe for Ravi and Mike, if our math is right, it just looks like you're trimming the full year EBIT guidance just slightly compared to last quarter. So similar to the last question, I'm just trying to understand, is that just higher incentive accrual or has your view on other pieces of SG&A or gross margin changed at all?
Mike Mathias
Strategic Advisor
No, you're right, Alex. The math would say we are trimming the back half got a bit from where we were back in May. I'd say the number one driver of that, if you remember the Keller, her expectation was AE to be up like low positive or low single digit positive. We're given flat guidance for the balance of the year, so that's a piece of it. A little bit of markdown placeholder, as we've described, alongside that reduction to revenue expectations. Flip side of that, at least for the third quarter, Aerie at a high 10 to 20 is ahead of where we thought, but the mix of that still taking a little bit off the income line based on the mix of that comp performance between brands. The SC&A line isn't much different. We talked kind of in line with sales, mid to high single. So a few million dollars there that we're still working on, but not a big driver of the guidance trim. And in fourth quarter, it's similar. Essentially, we're guiding AE to flack, Actually, fourth quarter, our prior guidance was AE still low single positive for the back half in total, which meant fourth quarter as well. AE is flat, and we're looking at Aerie kind of more in the high single to low double range, which is the same place we thought. So the trim in both quarters is really this AE brand flat expectation versus up low single and a little bit of markdown kind of plates holder against that. I mean, in total, we are, you know, the third quarter guide implies similar income results to last year, so much improved from the first half of the year. With work to do, fourth quarter implies some operating rate improvement and kind of mid to high single digit income increase. So, again, 12-month basis go forward, making progress here in the back half, even with a little bit of a reduction to guide. But positioned and positioning things in general across gross margin and SG&A plans to be back to revenue outpacing expense, outpacing revenue growth, and operating leverage again. Now that as we get into the back half into holiday and into next year, we're past tariff impact for the most part, even though there'll be some in and out there, but mostly absorbed at this point. SG&A structured to leverage, like I said, at a low to mid-single digits. We're confident that as we get into the holiday period and then into next year that we'll be back to income outpacing revenue growth and some operating rate improvement on a 12-month forward basis.
Alex Stratton
Analyst, Morgan Stanley
That's super helpful. Maybe just on AE as a quick follow-up after it gets to that maybe flat level. in the back half. How do you think about the return deposit and, like, what KPIs do you care most about as you're monitoring that trajectory?
Mike Mathias
Strategic Advisor
I think traffic's a big one. I think you start with the mix of product strategies first. I think the team feels good about where things are going forward. We want to build on the sequential improvement we've seen quarter over quarter here. We're given a flat guide based on quarter day performance in Q3. We're playing that forward into holiday. I think the team hopes to exceed that expectation to the balance of this year. Plans in place next year to, you know, comp negative results. But, you know, being prudent about how we plan that and not, you know, this inventory work is making sure we're not getting out over our skis in terms of inventory against the comp expectation for the first half next year, even though we're up against even though we're up against negatives. So we want to make sure we're positioned to chase trend and not get too ahead of things there. So I think if the intention go forward is for AE on the metric side, be driven by product strategy first. I think the marketing rebalancing we've been talking about, the third quarter here is our first all of those paths that's rebalancing that spend toward what was kind of top of funnel consideration, brand awareness to definite conversion driving, purchase behavior type spend on the digital marketing, performance marketing away from bigger campaigns and top of funnel. And we're seeing some traction there with sequential improvement we've seen so far quarter to date. Teams are building upon that into holiday and then next year as well. So I think traffic against Traffic in stores and conversion against that traffic are definite focuses alongside product strategies go forward.
Alex Stratton
Analyst, Morgan Stanley
Thanks so much. Good luck.
Operator
Conference Operator
The final question today will come from Marnie Shapiro with the Retail Tracker. Please go ahead.
Marnie Shapiro
Analyst, Retail Tracker
Hey, guys. Thanks, and congrats on ARRI. It was really stunning to see it in every single hall from back to school. So I wanted to actually talk a little bit about Aerie. You're focusing on the bras and I love that and I thought the float was a great launch. I'm curious about also the show-off and that collection which feels a little sexier than what I'm used to seeing from Aerie. I like it. And you also had a couple of sheer bras that were always towards the front of the store and seemed to always be selling out. So I'm curious if this is a shift for Aerie and you think that there's room for you guys to compete there. I think there is. and then I'm also curious if you're seeing that your customer is buying the match back set so the matching striped bralette with the matching boy short and then the matching striped sweatshirt to go with it and is that helping to drive up basket? Like you're fully outfitting her now.
Jen Foyle
President, Executive Creative Director for American Eagle & Aerie
Marnie, I think you could have taken this call for me. All of the above, that was perfectly said. Really all bras are working and we're going to really look to build out each franchise and find new ways to navigate bras. That's what we're up to right now. We do see these set selling. We love how they go back to the apparel and you'll see more of each category and probably some naming and claiming down the road. We have some excitement as we head into the back half and we go into really spring and really into back to school with some even We have plans, let me just say, all the way through. We're already planning how we're going to try to come up next back to school, and we're going to do that with some of these ideas. Excited with the teams they're delivering as far as innovation, novelty, laces, new laces. They're doing an excellent job, and yes, this match back is definitely an opportunity.
Marnie Shapiro
Analyst, Retail Tracker
And is the sexier look an intentional look, and is it something that you can carry over to Eagle without getting away from the core DNA of the brand?
Jen Foyle
President, Executive Creative Director for American Eagle & Aerie
Absolutely, but we have to do sexy in our way. I think we do it in a different way, and I think it's relevant, but I think there's ways to do it that can be cool and understandable for our customer base.
Marnie Shapiro
Analyst, Retail Tracker
Fantastic. Thank you, guys. Thank you, Marnie.
Operator
Conference Operator
The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.