AMKBY A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S

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A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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Vincent Clerc
Chief Executive Officer, A.P. Moller - Maersk
Welcome everyone and thank you for joining us on this earnings call today as we present our third quarter result for 2026. My name is Vincent Clerc, I'm the CEO for AP Moller Maersk and with me in the room today is our CFO Robert Erni. Let me start with the overall highlights for this quarter. We delivered a strong quarter across all three segments, with total group revenue of $18 billion. At a macro level, market demand in ocean remained resilient, driven by strong export activity from the Far East and imports into Africa, Latin America and North America in particular. A growing share of the incremental volume growth is coming from verticals with green goods and AI-related technology which are growing two or three times the speed of the overall market. As we discussed last quarter, this resilient demand continues to reflect different dynamics on head-hole and back-hole trades, contributing to an increasingly imbalanced trade flow. Meanwhile, this year's Pacific typhoon season was particularly active, causing disruptions at key ports and adding to the underlying congestions in our ocean network. This impacted our schedule reliability during the quarter. Together, these factors contributed to sustained high spot rates and excellent financial results in ocean. Meanwhile, in logistics and services, strong commercial momentum continued from the start of the year, delivering another quarter of double-digit growth. Finally, terminals delivered another strong quarter and continued to invest for growth. Turning to our financial performance for the quarter, on the back of higher spot rates in ocean, we delivered an EBITDA of $4.7 billion and an EBIT of $3.3 billion. Higher earnings translated into free cash flow of $2.4 billion. Cash generation has progressively improved after being negative in the first quarter. Strong year-to-date performance combined with continued strong market demand into the fourth quarter has allowed us to upgrade our earnings guidance for 2026. We now expect underlying EBIT to be in the range of $8 to $8.5 billion and free cash flow to be greater than $3 billion. Robert will share further detail. in his section. Taking a closer look at the financial and operational highlights by segments starting with ocean. Overall, this was a strong quarter. The high spot rates we have captured since mid-May were not only sustained but also strengthened as the quarter progressed. However, while congestion supported higher rates, it also constrained our volumes alongside available capacity. With our utilization already very high and our ability to grow volume during quarter was limited, Despite this, on a year-to-date basis, our volume growth remains at a healthy 4% or in line with what we expect the market to be. Looking ahead, we are investing in our fleet to support growth and its ongoing renewal. In September, we placed an order for 26 vessels, each with a capacity of approximately 19,000 TEUs. These vessels will be equipped with dual-fuel engines capable of running on liquefied gas and are expected to be delivered in 2029 and 2030. In logistics and services, we delivered strong top-line growth, continuing the positive momentum from the start of the year. Operational execution supported stronger EBIT performance, especially in forwarding and landslide. In solution, we remain focused in sequential improvements in the EBIT margin. The priorities in solutions are clear and we remain focused on delivering against them. Finally, in terminals, revenue reached a new record, supported by the existing portfolio and the opening of our new gateway terminal at Rijeka in Croatia. High utilization and strong delivery supported record EBITDA as well as a record adjusted EBIT. Now looking at the strategic priorities we set for Ocean at the beginning of the year. Grow. Utilization was very high at 96% for the third quarter in a row. However, this high utilization also limited our ability to grow volumes as reflected in the loaded volume numbers which were broadly flat year on year. With utilization as its ceiling, and Gemini now fully phased in, future growth will depend more directly on securing sufficient capacity either through the chart. Lead investment supports this goal and ensures the long-term competitiveness of the network, particularly in a market with more imbalanced trade flows. On the protect high asset turn, our volumes were also impacted by congestion exacerbated by the Pacific typhoon seasons which waited on our asset turns during the quarter. In the short term, we expect a gradual return to Suez to mitigate the congestion impact as the shorter transit distance allows us to redeploy our existing fleet and circumvent disruptions more effectively. Finally on profitability, congestion and the resulting higher spot rates provided significant earnings upside, lifting our ocean EBIT at margin. This was despite the increase in unit cost driven by congestion. As in the second quarter, on the Red Sea, we have continued a gradual return of our services via the Babel-Mandeb. Suez transits are now just over two-thirds of pre-closure capacity, and this is delivering faster transit times to our customers while also reducing our bunker consumption. Before we round off Ocean, let me say a few words on the market condition that we have been experiencing since we last spoke in August. In the short term, demand remained resilient throughout the third quarter, and following Golden Week holidays we saw a strong recovery in October, with both demand and utilization staying extremely high. Then, there are more structural factors to consider in this backhaul growth. Coupled with longer-term underinvestment in land-side capacity, this has contributed to congestion with some key terminals operating at their limits. This situation was further aggravated during the quarter by typhoons in Asia. This combination of factors tightened the infrastructure a lot. Together, resilient demand and tight inland site capacities have supported increase in the spot rates showed on the chart. Rates are now over 10% higher than they were when we announced our second quarter results in August and over 120% higher than at the start of 2026. Typhoon-related disruptions have recently eased, but the underlying landside bottleneck will take time to resolve. As a result, we expect congestion to remain and it has allowed us to upgrade our full-year earnings guidance. Turning to logistics, our priorities remain to improve growth and accelerate margin improvement. On the first priority, revenue grew 13%, of which around two-thirds was volume growth and one-third price. Prices were supported by elevated rates due to fuel charges, most notably in first mile and air freight. Further, in first mile, we continued to offer land bridge solutions across the Arabian Peninsula in response to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Overall, this performance reflects the commercial platforms we have built over the past years. While we are encouraged by the momentum, we are not complacent at all. Our focus remains on converting the strong top line into improved margin and earnings. Turning to our second priority, the EBIT margin solution represents our key opportunity for improvement and warehousing white space continued to wait on our year-on-year comparison, although performance improved sequentially as new customer implementation ramped up and cost discipline kicked in. Most importantly, we know what needs to be done in solutions and are focused on delivering. Showed here is a good example of the customer value proposition we can deliver in solutions in the United States serving wholesale Puma-owned stores and end consumers across a combined 2.3 million square feet. The value proposition for Puma has three main elements. First, automation that can improve efficiency, reduce cost while making better use of existing floor space. Second, pastel integration technology enables us later cut-off times and faster dispatch. And third, high-density storage provides capacity for SKU growth and peak demand of the distribution network. This is the kind of contract logistics business that we want to grow in solutions, building on the long-term customer partnerships and with clear value proposition. We thank PUMA for their continued partnership and look forward to building on it. Now turning to terminals, our priorities remain to grow through existing and new locations while maintaining long-term profitability. The segment continues to perform very well, with revenue in the quarter. Revenue grew 5% supported by higher revenue per move but also the ramp up of our new terminal in Croatia. This growth came despite the impact of the Middle East situation which has severely reduced our volumes in our terminal in Varennes. This underlines the importance that we see in investing into new capacity, and Swarpe is a good example, and I will say a few more words about this shortly. Turning to profitability, return on invested capital remains strong at around 14%. The year-on-year moderation reflects the capital employed in growth investment ahead of their full earning contribution. As we have said before, we expect some pressure on ROIC during the build-up phase of these investments, but return from the existing portfolio remains very strong. Let me briefly highlight SWAPE, which is a good example of our long-term investment approach in terminals. It also represents Latin America's first fully electrified container terminal. Back in September, The new terminal connects a growing logistics and industrial hub in northern Brazil to global markets while expanding Brazil's port network beyond the south and southeast region. The investment is of more than $350 million and includes fully electrified equipment and automation, which makes it a green and smart terminal from day one. The initial annual capacity is 400,000 TEUs or approximately 265,000 moves. Like the Da Nang project we highlighted last quarter, Swapway is exactly the type of locations where we see long-term value creation being a strategic gateway for a growing market. And with that, I will now hand over to Robert who will take you through the financial review.
Robert Erni
Chief Financial Officer, A.P. Moller - Maersk
Thank you, Vincent. Let me build on the operating developments Vincent has just discussed and take you through how the environment in the ocean provided the main uplift. In addition, we further progressed across the rest of the portfolio. Revenue reached $18.1 billion, up 27% compared with last year. The main driver was ocean, where the higher freight rates more than offset slightly lower volumes. This translated into a substantial improvement in profitability. EBITDA increased to $4.7 billion and EBIT to $3.3 billion, both up around $2 billion on the previous year. Importantly, the improvement also translated into strong cash generation. Free cash flow increased to $2.4 billion despite the working capital build-up during the quarter. As a result, we continued to operate from a position of $3.2 billion. Return on investment capital was 8.5% on the last 12 months basis. Let's now look more closely at development in cash flow. Operating cash flow was $4.4 billion, equivalent to a cash conversion of 93%. This was slightly below last year but still represents a strong level of conversion given the significant increase in earnings. The main offset was the 394 million increase in networking capital. This was driven by higher receivables in ocean as the increase in freight rates also increased billings to customers, installments and gross capex of 1.2 billion which is in line with guidance. After these items, free cash flow was $2.4 billion. This brought year-to-date free cash flow into positive territory, marking a clear turnaround from the cash outflow at the start of the year. We also returned $249 million to shareholders through the ongoing share buyback program. With that, let me move into the segments, starting with Ocean. In ocean, strong underlying demand combined with adverse weather in East Asia added to congestion and tightened capacity across the industry. Together, these effects put sustained upward pressure on freight rates, with our average rate at $27 per FFE. Loaded volumes were 3.37 million FFE, down 0.8% year-on-year and up 0.3% sequentially. Congestion and tight capacity left limited room to capture growth. Underlying the rationale for our recently announced fleet investments to create capacity for growth. As a result, ocean revenue increased 37% on-year to $12.6 billion. The challenging operating environment, recent global fuel supply disruption partly offset by 6.3% lower bunker consumption. Congestion and network adjustments also increased network and container handling costs. Together with lower volumes, these resulted in unit costs at fixed energy increasing by 4.8% year-on-year. Nevertheless, the benefit from higher freight rates was greater and profitability increased significantly, as EBITDA more than doubled to $3.7 billion and EBITDA less. Let me move to logistics and services. That business continued to make progress in the third quarter, growing across the portfolio and further improved profitability. Revenue increased by 13% to $4.5 billion with all segments and nearly all products delivering year-on-year growth. This was supported by a strong volume growth across most products despite the mixed macroeconomic environment. Top-line growth again translated into higher earnings. EBITDA increased to $519 million, while EBIT increased to 208%, supported by top-line growth, cost control, productivity and efficiency gains. Forwarding and landslide contributed to margin improvement while solutions remains the key focused area for further margin progression. The difference in performance between the segments is shown on the next slide. Here we see a familiar picture to the previous quarter. Revenue grew across all three segments while the improvement in profitability was driven by forwarding and land side. Forwarding delivered a strong quarter with revenue increasing by 19% to $929 million. Checked logistics. Landside was another important contributor. Revenue increased 12% to $2.4 billion, while the EBIT margin improved to 7.3%, supported by leverage-related demand and efficiency initiatives across depot and customs brokerage. Solutions remains the area with greater potential. Revenue increased 9.6%, but the EBIT margin declined to 3.2%. The principal opportunity remains to increase warehouse utilization, reduce white space, and convert the commercial pipeline. Overall, through volume growth and disciplined execution, while improving returns in solutions, remains an important priority. Now let's take a look at terminals. Once again, the terminals business continued its strong performance, delivering record revenue and EBITDA in the third quarter. Revenue increased by 4.9% to $1.5 billion, supported by both volume growth and improved commercial performance. Volumes increased by 2.6%, with particularly strong growth in Africa and Europe, which more than offset negative impacts from the Middle East conflict. At the same time, cost per move increased by 5.7%, mainly due to labour inflation and variable concession costs, partly offset by lower SGA costs. EBITDA increased 10% to $551 million, with the margin improving to 36.3%. For EBIT, the year-on-year comparison requires some adjustment. The prior year result includes a concessional-related impairment reversal of $108 million. Excluding this item, EBIT increased by 6.5% and the adjusted EBIT margin improved by 0.5%. ROIC was 13.8% on the last 12 months average basis. The decline compared with last year reflects higher capital and underlying performance with record revenue and EBITDA and continued attractive returns while investing for growth. Having reviewed the performance across the business, let me finish with our guidance for the full year. As Vincent mentioned, our strong year-to-day performance and continued favourable demand in Ocean support an earnings guidance upgrade. Based on our continued expectation of container market volume growth of around 4%, we now guide for underlying EBITDA of 14 to 14.5 billion dollars, underlying EBIT of 8 to 8.5 billion dollars and free cash flow of greater than 3 billion dollars. With that, we conclude the financial review. and we'll proceed to the Q&A. Operator, please go ahead.
Conference Operator
Operator
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and 1 on the telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and 2. Questionnaires on the phone are requested to disable the loudspeaker mode while asking a question. In the interest of time, please limit yourself to one question. Anyone who has a question may press star and 1 at this time. The first question is from Alex Irving.
Multiple Analysts
Equity Research Analysts
Alex Irving You hold it for 5 million teeth capacity last quarter. I understand the way you've described the market previously. Terminal congestion makes global fleet growth a bit like, say, pushing on the string. Shift the weighted anchor and that blunts the drag on freight rates you might normally expect when fleet grows significantly. In which case, can you please help me to understand why the oil and gas market is acting the best it can?
Vincent Clerc
Chief Executive Officer, A.P. Moller - Maersk
Yeah, thank you Alex. You have two things playing here. One is the trade is more and more imbalanced, as we mentioned, so more and more is depending on forest export, and there is fewer full containers going back the other way, in terms of ratio, which means you need more ships The second thing is there is an increased level of congestion. Not to be a permanent feature, but to be a relatively often occurring feature. In the coming years and if you want to both actually pull in the same direction that that shipping becomes more capital intensive because it takes more ships to move those containers because when the ship waits at anchor then basically your transit time you could say is is extended by by the same if you don't invest to get in there then you will the flip side of it is that you will shrink your volume base Because you're still caught in the waiting. The size that you're about having, then you need to be able to weather the level of congestion that you expect, and you need to be able to build on plans that build for more one-way trade. And both of them have the same result for all the shipping lines. It means the capital intensity per FFE or per container. This actually slowly increases as a result of those imbalances.
Multiple Analysts
Equity Research Analysts
Thank you.
Multiple Analysts / Operator
Equity Research Analysts and Conference Operator
The next question is from Parash Jain, HSBC.
Multiple Analysts
Equity Research Analysts
We need to talk about how the start of 2027 might look like with the initial discussion with respect to Asia-Europe contracts. And with more and more capacity returning back to the Red Sea by March, how should we think about the demand-supply situation in 2027? Thank you.
Vincent Clerc
Chief Executive Officer, A.P. Moller - Maersk
Yeah, so obviously we're not guiding on 27 right now. The contracting season is just really starting out. There will be a lot more of this when we meet again in February. What I can say though is the following. We're going to have a strong fourth quarter. And in this fourth quarter, The spot rates will be significantly higher than they were in the fourth quarter of last year. And there is some level of correlation between the background of spot market you have when you enter the contract negotiation and where the contract negotiations actually land. And that's about... With respect to Babel-Mandem and Return to the Red Sea, we had two-thirds returns. The market in general is more than half. It has had so far no real impact on freight rates, which is also what we said to you last quarter. We don't expect that this is a major factor. So I think to supply and demand for the years to come, I can only go back to what we mentioned last quarter, which is that it will continue to be a volatile environment. If you remember, the first quarter of this year was not good from a profitability perspective. So there will be other quarters like this in the coming three years. But there will also be, as long as the demand side continues to be what it has been for the last three years, there will be a lot of things with the volumes that we're bringing in and then you see these congestions and then and then you see some difficulties where actually the supply and demand or what drives the prices moves away from what is supply and demand, what the supply and demand model on ocean would imply because the bottleneck is somewhere else. And so you need to think of this as it's not always the land side that decides and therefore when it don't, You might see some weaker rate environments. It could be a feature that repeats itself in the coming years. Hence, we do expect high volatility but a better average earnings over the period despite that high volatility.
Conference Operator
Operator
The next question from Arishankar Ramoorthy, Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Multiple Analysts
Equity Research Analysts
Arishankar Ramoorthy, Deutsche Bank Hi, good morning everyone. Maybe I can ask one and then join the queue. But I have a question around rates in Q3. CCFI would have expected you to print something higher on rates, but it's put differently. CCFI groups Your own trades have been up 20%. Would that be an explanation for this? Should we expect this to catch up into Q4?
Vincent Clerc
Chief Executive Officer, A.P. Moller - Maersk
I think you need to look at the fact that our rate moved significantly faster than our competition in the second quarter. We were significantly faster at translating The great opportunity into money in the second quarter and you see that if you compare to what other lines have done. So that's what it means that then from Q2 to Q3 there was less of a jump than maybe what you had anticipated. If you look at some of the other carriers that have published either revised guidance or results and more than us from Q2 to Q3 because we're basically converging to the same market levels that we all operate in. And those levels, actually both the SEFI and the CCFI have been remarkably stable Over the last few months and have continued to be stable all the way until the latest data.
Conference Operator
Operator
Question from Muneeba Kayani, Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Multiple Analysts / Operator
Equity Research Analysts and Conference Operator
Good morning. I wanted to ask around your volumes which you've said were impacted by congestion and it seems to be below kind of the market growth in 3Q. So how do we think about this going forward? Will congestion kind of remain a constraint or was it just during the peak season in 3Q and then off peak you have a and kind of just overall like what is the demand environment like is it a four percent growth that you're expecting in for the market in 4Q?
Vincent Clerc
Chief Executive Officer, A.P. Moller - Maersk
So as we guide, we expect the market to grow around 4%. As you rightfully point out, sometimes from one quarter to the other, volume might be a little bit more than the 4%, a little bit less, a little bit depending on when we're phasing in a new string or when we're more affected by some congestion in a certain port than others. So you will have at the margin on a quarter to quarter, it will It will wiggle a little bit around the market and certainly in Q3 after a very strong performance in Q1 and Q2, in Q3 we could lift a little bit less during the traditional basically maintain our share and grow with the market and we expect next year to be able to do the same thing. We'll guide on what that market growth is in February and then our volume growth will be in line with that. So that has been the plan now for the year, will continue to be the plan next year and I think that's... We have enough levers between charter markets, new buildings coming and so on, that we can keep this up. But exactly, maybe back to the first question, you can see if you don't invest in the fleet over time, if congestion keeps on getting more as a blip than in something that worries us in any way. Thank you.
Conference Operator
Operator
The next question is from Lars Heindorf, Nordea. Please go ahead.
Multiple Analysts
Equity Research Analysts
Lars Heindorf, Nordea Yes, one more thing to my question. It's on the capacity and the volume growth, perhaps. So, the return to space, you say, is around about two-thirds back. I mean, all the sequels, that's what has led to a quarter of the capacity being freed up. So also looking a bit further ahead, when you're done with the full implementation of the practice tests, how much capacity will then be freed up? And then maybe as a follow-up, do you have any plan on chartering any new vessels?
Vincent Clerc
Chief Executive Officer, A.P. Moller - Maersk
Thanks Lars. So we We have now four quarters in terms of asset turns from Gemini and now we're up against the same baseline. So if we want to continue to grow in the market next year, we're going to need to charge in a bit of tonnage to do that. And for the most part, this is already secured for next year. Furthermore, as you mentioned, the return to Suez is freeing some capacity. It takes a while for that capacity to be available because obviously the ships need to fulfill their full voyage, which is still a 13 to 14 weeks trip for a ship between Asia and Europe, before they can help being redeployed in different areas. How much capacity this adds on a weekly basis depends on where we redeploy it, because it takes six ships to go to the west coast of the US, you take a lot more ships if you go to the east coast of South America. So it's pretty hard for me to give you a number for what you should expect, but you should expect indeed that this allows us for the fourth quarter to open up a little bit of capacity compared to what we had available in the third quarter on a weekly basis.
Unidentified Analyst
Equity Research Analyst
Thank you very much. It's a question on capital allocations. It has two parts, if you allow me. Maybe firstly on the ocean side, you mentioned earlier on the call expectations for better average earnings through the next years due to congestion. You mentioned the capacity constraints and if I do the math on your current I think our market share in the ocean will shrink down. What do you think is an appropriate market share that you should have in the ocean for the next few years, having in mind all these data points? And the second part, if I sort of think, you know, you have 3.4 billion of net cash currently on the balance sheet, Your return on capital input in terminals is very strong. Through logistics you've made progress through the integrations. How do you think about any connection to this? Is this fair to assume the returns that you get in terminals and logistics are better than the returns that you're getting on the share buyback today or not really? Thank you.
Vincent Clerc
Chief Executive Officer, A.P. Moller - Maersk
Thank you for that question. We look at market share in terms of volume share, not necessarily capacity, because that capacity is a bit misleading. It's like if you're in retail, measuring this in square meters rather than in revenue. So that's what we have and since the market is growing faster now three years in a row from what we anticipated there was a need for us to catch up on some of the capacity we would be lacking and there's different other levers that we can use so that we can keep up with the market to stay around that capacity for the foreseeable future. In terminals You're correct. I think we mentioned that it means in terms of growth potential and earnings potential for the terminals because of course terminals are in general in a very positive supply and demand situation because of that shortage of land-side infrastructure and as governments and port authorities are trying to de-bottleneck this by By bringing new capacity online, you see tenders coming on, and we took the example of Swape this time, you have examples in Da Nang, and you have a lot of other things that are ongoing. So you will see, I think, over the years. The thing is that these facilities take a while to develop, of course. But it means also that from a capital allocation perspective, given the returns that we're having in APMT and the fact that we think these returns will be sustained, In the portfolio, and if we can develop, we can bring a lot of new facilities online that would deliver similar returns, we look at it very, very positively at everything that we can do provided that we don't delude ourselves in the process. There we would be inclined to, if we find the right candidate, to also dedicate capital to further growth. And as we mentioned in the call, there is a couple of areas still where I think the focus needs to be on margin restoration and performance more than M&A. And so we continue to scan and we want to make sure we have enough firepower there, Your initial question is that I think the balance sheet that we have allows us to seize the opportunity that is going to come in terminal. It allows us to maintain our market share in ocean and seize the opportunity of having a better market for the years to come. And it allows us also to do what we want to do in logistics. After that, from a question of distribution in February. But I think those are the opportunities. I think the more Thank you very much.
Multiple Analysts
Equity Research Analysts
Yes, hello Vincent and Robert, thank you for taking my question.
Unidentified Analyst
Equity Research Analyst
So last week there were some news out that you were ordering additional vessels on top of the ones that you mentioned in your prepared remarks, another 570,000 TU's. And if I convert those TU's that you ordered to CapEx, I get, on my math, I get around 12 billion between now and 2030.
Multiple Analysts
Equity Research Analysts
And with delivery of around 29 and 30 and adding... Does that sound right or am I missing something here? Thank you.
Robert Erni
Chief Financial Officer, A.P. Moller - Maersk
It will definitely increase the capex towards the years that you mentioned, 29, 20, 30. That's when these vessels will hopefully be delivered. It will also average for the next five years, stretch a bit the guidance that we had in the past. The numbers that you provided to us look a bit on the high side for these particular years.
Unidentified Analyst
Equity Research Analyst
Thank you. Then perhaps a follow-up on your implied Q4 capex guidance, because you have invested around one billion per quarter this year. We have guidance for this year unchanged, which implies around 2.7 billion in Q4.
Multiple Analysts
Equity Research Analysts
Please elaborate on that increase Q over Q.
Robert Erni
Chief Financial Officer, A.P. Moller - Maersk
That is, to a large extent, making up the increase in Q4. Whether we land on the higher limit of the guidance, we will see, but that is the main reason, the investment into the fleet and the down payments.
Unidentified Analyst
Equity Research Analyst
Thank you.
Conference Operator
Operator
The next question from Christian Goddickson, SEB. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Analyst
Equity Research Analyst
Thank you. Also a household question on the free cash flow side of it. But turning to the net working capital, just wondering if you could elaborate on your assumptions for what's included in your guidance for 2026, where you saw considerable headwind in the Q2 numbers.
Robert Erni
Chief Financial Officer, A.P. Moller - Maersk
Thank you for that question. That's actually a good problem to have because it's nothing else than translating the higher turnover into invoices with the customer. So it's a pure timing issue. We will still have a little of that impact, rates are much higher, and then we will see how freight rates develop, but then it should basically phase out. So there shouldn't be at least a year-on-year comparison impact or a drastic impact anymore. What we also have on the working capital is the inventory cost, which costs us more than it used to be for bunker.
Multiple Analysts
Equity Research Analysts
That's correct. Perfect. Thank you.
Conference Operator
Operator
The next question is from Alexia Dogani. JP Morgan, please go ahead. Good morning.
Multiple Analysts / Operator
Equity Research Analysts and Conference Operator
Thanks for taking my question. Just a clarification, Vincent. Are you planning another vessel order?
Vincent Clerc
Chief Executive Officer, A.P. Moller - Maersk
We order ships every year. That's part of the renewal program and that's also part of the cycle. That's also part of the cycle to withstand whatever congestion or the congestions that we expect to be there and be able to hold on to that growth, not be victims every time congestion happens. So you should expect, I mean, we're We're in regular dialogue with yards and sometimes we place orders, sometimes we don't, but we're constantly working on what is the right way for us to renew the fleet and what is the right way for us to just make sure that we position as we should expect always.
Multiple Analysts / Operator
Equity Research Analysts and Conference Operator
Okay, so I guess my real question is This is quite a big change in your integrator strategy. When that was introduced, it was all about maintaining a container capacity at 4.1 to 4.3 million TEUs. You're now at 4.7. There's more to come. What has actually changed in your view that you're now willing to double down on Notion? And what is there for the investment case for Maersk? It's a bit too much, but ultimately what is the long-term direction of the group? Thank you.
Vincent Clerc
Chief Executive Officer, A.P. Moller - Maersk
So if you look at the return for the industry from 2010 to 2020, you get close to one or one and a half percent. That is not attractive. If you look at the return for the industry from 2023, let's say, let's just forget the 21, 22, because that was maybe special circumstances with COVID. From 23 years until now, and also the market dynamics, and therefore a view on the profitability in the segment that's being more positive, which makes not an aggressive investment program, but simply retaining our current position, we think, an attractive investment opportunity. Then, that for me is a compliment to the rest of The European Commission for Sustainability and the European Commission for Sustainability and the European Commission for Sustainability which for the logistics will be the same. The good thing and the positive thing that has changed is that actually the earnings potential of shipping for the years to come I think is higher than what was expected at the inception of the strategy, hence the adjustment for that sector.
Multiple Analysts / Operator
Equity Research Analysts and Conference Operator
Okay, so we shouldn't be worried about the 45% order book to feed ration anymore then?
Vincent Clerc
Chief Executive Officer, A.P. Moller - Maersk
If you look at order book over expected market growth, the order book has been too big for the market growth for the last 20 years. And yet here we are, all ships are full. That's the first reflection. Maybe it's time to re-look a bit at the model. I think we've made quite a lot of analysis on this ordering activity. Certainly some of the years that we have ahead will see ship deliveries that are well ahead of what market demand has. And it will eventually translate into a period of adjustment. Whether this happens next year or in five years, because congestion kind of I don't think that I have never seen a downturn in shipping that lasts more than three to four quarters and I don't think I think that even with the order book there is today there is sufficient lever for shipping lines to weather whatever adjustment there needs to be, either by returning chartered tonnage to one of our fleet owners if we need to get back into a smaller size because the market isn't there for it. And I would assume that our competitors have similar views on what type of flexibility they built in their portfolio. There is a lot of pent-up scrapping that needs to happen. There is a lot of, with the current energy price, a lot of further slow steaming that could happen. There will still be a lot of congestion. So I think that we're still within something where I don't believe in...
Conference Operator
Operator
The next question from Arthur Traskloff, C. Please go ahead.
Multiple Analysts
Equity Research Analysts
Good morning everyone, thank you very much. So one question from me, so your picture Q2 was clearly that essentially when the equation between demand and poor congestion gets beyond a certain point, trade rate growth is extremely strong. You obviously benefited from I think the way to think about this is and what makes this extremely difficult to forecast
Vincent Clerc
Chief Executive Officer, A.P. Moller - Maersk
In the statistics, you can follow the utilization of the different terminals or assets, and it raises 1%. A lot happens. And it's a bit the same when it decongests. It has decongested so far quite a bit from the peak of congestion. Because there is an influx of tonnage being freed from stupas and so on, but so far we have not crossed the tipping point, so it has had no impact on freight rates. Hence also our view on the fourth quarter and the fact that the quarter will be strong throughout. It's hard to tell you where further away from that tipping point and back to even higher freight rates or whether at some point it will decongest for a while until the next peak or until the next weather event or labor event or whatever that might be and then we get back there. But I think we're so close to the ceiling that we're going to cross these tipping points back and forth quite a bit in the coming five years. And that's why we're going to see that volatility. So this is, I want to say that again, our volatile rates the next five years where these tipping points will be crossed multiple times and where there will be quarters such as the one we just had that are very profitable and there will be quarters such as the one we had in Q1 that are not profitable. and that this will average into something that you know maybe a bit like last year or a bit like this year but certainly much better than what we've seen on average from the 10 to 20 decade.
Multiple Analysts
Equity Research Analysts
Thank you very much, very clear, thank you.
Multiple Analysts / Operator
Equity Research Analysts and Conference Operator
The next question from Michael
Multiple Analysts
Equity Research Analysts
Just back to the demand supply picture in the medium term. We've been talking about strong demand and capacity being tied for whatever reason. My question to you is what's your view on the shipping players more broadly? Do you think that container shipping lines have become more disciplined Thank you.
Vincent Clerc
Chief Executive Officer, A.P. Moller - Maersk
I think that the shipping lines' ordering behaviors have not changed, but the shipping lines' operating models have evolved towards being much more rational when it comes to dealing with situations of either over or under capacity and how pricing reacts. And that's what I think you see playing since after COVID basically in the last four years.
Multiple Analysts
Equity Research Analysts
And do you think that alliances play a role in that sense or not? Thank you.
Vincent Clerc
Chief Executive Officer, A.P. Moller - Maersk
I don't think alliances play a role in that. If anything, what maybe they do is they make it a bit easier to adapt capacity to demand because it's bigger networks, so you have more flexibility in having a bigger network than you have if you have a smaller network, which is a positive. But otherwise, I think from a competitive behavior, I think these
Conference Operator
Operator
I would like to turn the conference back over to Vincent Clerc for any closing remarks.
Vincent Clerc
Chief Executive Officer, A.P. Moller - Maersk
Alright, thank you again for joining us today and thank you for all the good questions. To summarize, we had a really strong quarter across all of the three segments. In Ocean, sustained high spot rates supported a significant increase in earnings. At the same time, our fleet investments will ensure that we have the capacity to grow with the market and We continue to deliver strong operational and financial performance while investing in new capacity for growth. Finally, on the back of these strong results and continued strong market, we have upgraded our