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Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. Q4 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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Conference Call Operator
Operator
Good morning and welcome to Air Products' fourth quarter earnings release conference call. Today's call is being recorded at the request of Air Products. Please note that this presentation and the comments made on behalf of Air Products are subject to copyright by Air Products and all rights are reserved. Beginning today's call is Megan Britt. Please go ahead.
Megan Britt
Investor Relations, Air Products
Hello and welcome to the fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2026 earnings conference call for Air Products. Our prepared remarks today will be led by Eduardo Menezes, Chief Executive Officer, and Melissa Schaeffer, Chief Financial Officer. We have prepared presentation slides to supplement our remarks during the call, which are posted on the Investor Relations section of the Air Products website. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements, which are our expectations about the future. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Our actual results could materially differ from these statements due to these risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to those discussed on this call and in the forward-looking statements and risk factor sections of our reports filed with or furnished to the SEC. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements. Please note in today's presentation, we will refer to various financial measures, including earnings per share, capital expenditures, operating income, operating margin, The Effective Tax Rate, ROC, Net Cash Flow, and Net Debt to EBITDA on a total company basis. Unless we specifically state otherwise, statements regarding these measures refer to our adjusted non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these measures to our most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found on our investor website in the Relevant Earnings Release section. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Eduardo.
Eduardo Menezes
Chief Executive Officer, Air Products
Thank you, Megan. Hello, and thank you for joining our call today. Please turn to slide three. Earlier today, we reported our fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2026 results. These results demonstrate the progress we made to drive earnings growth while adjusting our portfolio for legacy energy transition projects and increasing the investment in our core industrial gas business. Our adjusted financial results were strong. We delivered 8% year-on-year sales growth and adjusted earnings per share of $13.45, which represents a 12% increase compared to the prior year. EPS growth was comprised of operating income growth of 11% and equity-affiliated income growth of 14%. Our operating income margin was 24.4%, a 70 basis point improvement relative to prior year. and Return on Capital was 11.9%, a 100 basis point improvement relative to prior year. Our total capital expenditure was reduced by $1.8 billion compared to fiscal year 2025 and we achieved net cash flow neutrality. All that while significantly expanding our investment and backlog of industrial gas projects, primarily in the electronics and space sectors, and maintaining our historical track record of dividend increases with $1.6 billion paid to shareholders in fiscal 2026. Overall, our results for fiscal year 2026 demonstrate the benefit of focusing on our core industrial gas business, setting meaningful targets and executing with resilience to ensure that we deliver on the targets we set. I want to express my appreciation to the entire Air Products team for their dedication to safety, reliably serving our customers, and supporting our projects. Moving to slide four, we show our progress relative to our mid-term targets. In early 2025, we provided a roadmap on this slide, and we have made meaningful progress in 2026 on several of these targets. We delivered double-digit adjusted earnings per share in fiscal year 2026, above our original guidance for the year, and as you see in this slide, we also made progress relative to each of our midterm targets. For example, we demonstrated progress on our commitment to return to excellence in execution through a right-size organization. We achieved $95 million in savings from cost reductions in the year and have completed approximately 93% of our previously announced workforce reduction. These actions are critical to offset inflation and adapt the organization to a lower level of capex spending. will continue to pursue further productivity gains using tools like AI and taking meaningful productivity actions that keep us on track to deliver our multi-year commitments. Moving to slide five, we have our key priorities for 2027 to continue our performance momentum and our progress to reach our medium-term targets. We have an objective to improve our operating income margin and achieve best-in-class margins among our primary peer group. We expect to deliver a step-up in margin improvement this year using a combination of pricing, productivity actions, and portfolio optimization. Also, we expect to continue to win high-quality industrial gases projects, particularly in the electronics and market. Last quarter, we highlighted that our industrial gas backlog was approximately $3 billion. With another group of project wins in the fourth quarter, which we plan to announce during the next few months, our IG backlog now stands at $3.3 billion, and we are still evaluating a healthy pipeline of opportunities. I will share more detail on the backlog in a moment. Finally, we expect to strengthen our balance sheet in fiscal 2027 as improved operating cash flow relative to capital expenditure is expected to generate positive net cash flow. We also anticipate the opportunity for proceeds related to several asset transactions to improve our overall balance sheet and support improved return on capital. Please turn to slide 6 for a summary of our current project backlog and our update to our capital expenditure forecast. We currently have a traditional industrial gas backlog of approximately $3.3 billion in projects. A significant portion of the capital projected for the backlog will support electronic customers, including over $2 billion in project wins for air products during the last 12 months. Translating our backlog into a view of capital expenditures, on the right-hand side of this slide, we are targeting to invest approximately $3 to $3.5 billion in capex in fiscal 2027, with over $1 billion currently forecasted to go toward traditional industrial gas growth projects. As a reminder, there are new projects being added and completed projects being removed from the list every quarter. As we have previously disclosed, we are also moving forward with several underperforming projects, giving our commercial obligations and project status. Although these projects are not expected to contribute materially to our future operating income, we continue to work to improve their results through commercial negotiations, operational improvements, and productivity. Overall, I would say 2026 was the year we demonstrated we can turn the ship and Return Air Products to its long-term mission of being a high-performance, pure-play industrial gases company. I look forward to maintaining our momentum in 2027 and continue our progress on delivering our commitments. Now, I will turn the call over to Melissa to discuss our results in greater depth and review our 2027 outlook. Melissa?
Melissa Schaeffer
Chief Financial Officer, Air Products
Thank you, Eduardo. Please move to slide 7 for a high-level summary of our fiscal year financial results. Sales were up 8% while operating income improved 11% and earnings per share improved 12% on strong underlying business performance. Even with headwinds from higher energy pass-through, operating margin expanded 70 basis points compared to the prior year. Return on capital of nearly 12% also improved from last year on strong base business performance and large project optimization. Please turn to slide eight. Our fiscal year earnings per share of $13.45 increased 12% on improved base business performance, led by strong onsite volume from our existing assets and new startups. We also saw benefits from portfolio optimization, pricing action, and our equity affiliates. Despite overall higher costs from inflation and incentive compensation, we recognized approximately $95 million in savings in fiscal 2026 from our headcount reduction plan and have reduced headcount 15% since the FY24 peak. These results also reflect a 3% headwind from Helium. Against a challenging supply chain environment, we're able to navigate the disruption while narrowing the pricing headwinds through positive volume momentum from reliably supplying our customers. Moving now to slide nine, I'll provide an overview of our results by segment for the fiscal year. You can find additional details on the fourth quarter results by segment in the appendix. America's operating income increased 8%, primarily driven by onsite volume, including higher production from U.S. refinery assets, as well as new assets, which began contributing in the second half. The volume in pricing improvement was partially offset by higher costs. America's equity affiliate income was elevated during the fiscal year due to higher volumes from a short-term contract in our Mexico joint venture. Asia's operating income grew 15% due to benefits from the gasification assets held for sale, new electronic assets starting up, and lower costs driven by productivity, partially offset by weaker pricing particularly in China. Asia also saw improvement from helium volumes driven by reliably supplying our electronics customers. Currency improved results 3%. Europe's operating income improved 7%, including 4% from federal currency. The remaining growth was primarily driven by onsite volume and pricing actions, which were partially offset by higher costs. Europe's equity-affiliated income was up due to the performance in our Italy joint venture. In our Middle East and India segment, operating income improved on lower cost, while equity affiliate income increased 6%, primarily due to lower cost in an affiliate in Saudi Arabia. Lastly, the corporate and other segment experienced lower sale of equipment activity, which was partially offset by productivity improvements that drove a 10% reduction in corporate SG&A. We also recognize lower changes to cost estimates associated to our sales equipment projects. Please turn to slide 10. For the fourth quarter, earnings per share increased 6%, which is primarily driven by higher volumes from new assets and a strategic asset sale associated with an early contract termination in the Americas. Additionally, we were able to implement timely pricing actions to recover higher power costs. This improvement was partially offset by higher costs, which included higher incentive compensation and fixed cost inflation, partially offset by productivity. While we continued to experience a helium price headwind in the quarter, we were able to partially offset the impact through positive momentum in electronics volume. Moving now to slide 11, we will review our outlook for fiscal 2027. For the full year, we expect earnings per share to be within the range of $14.15 to $14.50, which is an improvement of 5% to 8% from the prior year. In terms of key drivers, we expect to more than offset inflation with pricing actions and productivity. This includes realizing an approximate $50 million of benefit associated with our existing cost reduction plan. For new assets, we expect a continuation of the benefit recognized in the prior year from the ramp up of new startups in the Americas and Asia. As a reminder, we do not anticipate a material financial impact from NEOM in fiscal 2027. In our outlook, we have assumed modest market volume growth in line with current industrial production growth rates. We also do not expect a prior year sale of equipment cost adjustments in our corporate segment to repeat. As a reminder, last fiscal year, we benefited from collections related to the China gasification assets that were held for sale that will not repeat, as we are now exiting both assets. We expect a 2% headwind from non-operating items, including higher interest expense due to the canceled projects and higher tax rate of 19%, primarily due to lower tax credits. We anticipate contributions from our equity affiliates to be flat, primarily due to the contractually lower interest income in our Gazan joint venture, largely offset by modest improvement in our other affiliates. Lastly, we have not anticipated share buybacks within this outlook. In the first quarter, we expect earnings per share to be within the range of $3.35 to $3.45, up 6% to 9% from the prior year. Although we expect helium to stabilize for the full fiscal year, we anticipate a headwind in the first quarter due to lower pricing from a contract renewal with strategic customers. For capital expenditures, as Eduardo noted earlier, we expect to spend within the range of $3 to $3.5 billion. From a cash perspective, we expect to be net cash flow positive as improvements in our operating cash flow and anticipated asset proceeds are expected to offset anticipated capital expenditures and dividends paid to our shareholders. We will now open the call up for questions. Operator?
Conference Call Operator
Operator
Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure the mute function is turned off to allow the signal to reach our equipment. In the interest of time, we ask that you please limit yourself to one question. Again, press star 1 to ask a question. We'll pause for just a moment to assemble the queue. And we will take our first question from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.
Emily Fusco
Analyst representative for David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank
Hi, good morning. This is Emily Fusco. I'm for Dave. Could you maybe quantify or give some color on where U.S. high co-volumes ended for 26? And if you're expecting maybe similar levels for 27, and if so, you know, whatever the outlook is there, what gives you confidence in the sustainability or refinery, just any color there would be helpful. Thank you.
Eduardo Menezes
Chief Executive Officer, Air Products
Yeah, I... I believe it's fair to say that we basically sold out in 26. Our volume increased probably in the mid single digit percentage. We are trying to squeeze more molecules and try to find ways to continue to grow the volume, but the demand is very strong, and it's going to be more a function of us optimizing our production than the market, which is very, very strong, as you can imagine, with all the demand from the refineries.
Conference Call Operator
Operator
Got it. Thank you. We will take our next question from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.
Multiple speakers: Steve Haines, Duffy Fisher, Hakeem, Patrick Cunningham, and Kevin
Analysts / analyst representatives, Morgan Stanley / Goldman Sachs / Bank of America / Citi / Jefferies
Hey, good morning. This is Steve Haines on for Vincent. I just want to ask a couple questions on NAOM. I guess you kind of indicated that there's not much of a financial impact in 27, but just wanted to confirm that that also applies on the cash side of things. And then secondly, On the NAOM project financing, who exactly is paying the interest expense and when does the principal start getting repaid? Thank you.
Eduardo Menezes
Chief Executive Officer, Air Products
Yeah, we can confirm again that we do not expect any impact on 2027. We do not disclose exactly on the cash flow of this project, but I can tell you that You know, on this category of projects that we talked about, you know, our energy transition projects, so including the project in Canada, the projects, the multiple projects in the Netherlands and our portion of the NEON project, we have a little over Thank you very much. So the vast majority will be in 2027, the balance in 2028, and zero in 2029. And with that, we will close the expenditures on these energy transition projects. So that's the forecast. We have a project finance for this project, but we do not disclose the terms and conditions that we have with the banks and with our partners.
Multiple speakers
Brief acknowledgements / transition remarks; speaker identity is not uniquely attributable
Thank you. Okay, thank you.
Conference Call Operator
Operator
We will take our next question from Jeff Tsakasas with JP Morgan.
Jeff Zekauskas
Analyst, J.P. Morgan
Thanks very much. I think Lindy's average prices were up 3%, and maybe yours were less than that. And what they argued was that There are all kinds of inflationary costs that need to be captured. Do you feel you're capturing them? And do you feel that you're pricing up with your competitors?
Eduardo Menezes
Chief Executive Officer, Air Products
Good morning, Jeff. Yeah, I believe so. I think we're very close. At the end, as you know, there is a difference in portfolio in the packaged gas side that do not have a price in U.S. in hard goods and so forth. The numbers are always going to be a little different from one company to the other. But I believe on the products and the markets we serve, I think our numbers are similar to our competitors. And I think in 2026... It was a little bit of a battle to pass this cost. At the end of the year, as you know, there was extreme inflation, especially in Europe, that natural gas prices jumped close to $30 per million BTU. We've seen power prices over 200 euros a megawatt. So we passed those prices, as always, to our on-site customers, basically as part of the normal price increases we have in our agreements. On the merchant side, there is a little bit of a lag always, and that's a normal activity. So you may end with a little less recovery than you would like at the closing of a year when the price increases at the end like we have, but we expect that we're going to be able to recover that in the first few months of our fiscal year, 2027.
Multiple speakers
Brief acknowledgements / transition remarks; speaker identity is not uniquely attributable
Thank you.
Conference Call Operator
Operator
We will take our next question from Chris Parkinson with Wolf Research.
Chris Parkinson
Analyst, Wolfe Research
Great. Thank you so much. In your guidance, it indicates that helium is in neutral for the year, following a slight headwind for the first fiscal quarter. And I guess that kind of aligns with what we saw in the fourth fiscal quarter. So could you just give us a little insight on how you're Underpinning your assumptions in terms of cadence for the balance of the year, how you'd apply current, let's say, spot trends, albeit so small to, let's say, contracts that are rolling over, and whether or not you've seen any propensity from customers to adapt, let's say, longer-term contracts with floors, ceilings. Is there any difference in how everything's evolving in due course? Thank you so much.
Eduardo Menezes
Chief Executive Officer, Air Products
Thank you, Chris. Yes, Helium, as you know, we had a lot of changes in the market in the last year. Most of the changes, they started with the war, so after the first quarter. So we have a little bit of a, you know, a lap effect between the first quarter of last year to this year. and some of price renegotiations that will affect this year. And in addition to that, we are working on the direction of changing a little bit how we value our inventory and that will have also a negative effect for the year. That is part of our estimate. So when we say that our guidance is to be neutral, we have to overcome this change in the in inventory costs, and also we have to overcome several renegotiations that we had, you know, we started in last, you know, in 25 and the beginning of 26 that will have a negative effect for us in 27. Put that aside, I would say that our volumes, they continue to grow. We continue to use our storage, our cavern. We have many, many quarters that we can continue to supply about 40%, 50% of our needs with product that comes from the cavern. And that is giving our customers the confidence to sign long-term agreements and work with us in a different way to contract heating in the future. So some of our agreements that we assign, especially with our new on-site plants in oxygen and nitrogen space, They are combined with agreements for heating that sometimes can go for the entire life of the air separation plant. So 15-year contracts for heating, which was not something that we've seen before. I know the next question will be about price and heating. Of course, we understand the dynamics. Our customers understand the dynamics. These contracts, the long-term contracts they have, Thank you for joining us. Thank you very much. But we are on our way to recover a significant part of that volume and be what our goal is, the most reliable supplier in this market. Since I mentioned this inventory thing, I'll ask Melissa to provide a little more color on that.
Melissa Schaeffer
Chief Financial Officer, Air Products
Sure, absolutely. So we are changing our inventory accounting method starting in FY27 for helium. This is really to align with the industry standards. This is going to an average cost accounting. Now, this will create a modest headwind in FY27, which are, as Eduardo mentioned, currently considered in our range for the guidance.
Eduardo Menezes
Chief Executive Officer, Air Products
And that's not a cash headwind?
Melissa Schaeffer
Chief Financial Officer, Air Products
Not a cash headwind, purely in accounting.
Eduardo Menezes
Chief Executive Officer, Air Products
Okay. Thank you. Thank you.
Conference Call Operator
Operator
We will take our next question from John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.
John McNulty
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets
Yeah, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So, Eduardo, I think you spoke early on around an early contract termination and asset sale. I guess, can you give us a little bit more color on that? Maybe how much of a benefit it gave you in 4Q on the sales and operating income side? And also, Should we be thinking about that? Okay, if it's a contract that's now ended and you sold off the asset, is there any drag going forward with the absence of that business? And then I guess finally in that, how would you characterize excluding this termination and asset sale, the overall America's volumes, just so we can kind of get a picture of kind of what you're seeing in the market?
Eduardo Menezes
Chief Executive Officer, Air Products
Okay. Let me divide the question in two. I'll take the first part and I'll ask Melissa to answer the second part. But related to that transaction, this is part of a collection of hydrogen plants that are products bought, I would say, during COVID. And this specific facility, it's probably 60 years old. And so a very old reformer that sits in the middle of the refinery area. and with time, I think both our products and the customer, they understood that the customer is probably the best owner for that asset as they can provide O&M services for a cost that is lower than our cost. So I think we both understood that. We were able to get to a resolution of the case where they are buying back the The facility, they believe they can have a reduction in cost, and we believe we can have a reduction in the, let's say, the difference between what we're actually spending and what we're charging them for O&M. So I think it was a win-win approach for both sides. Going to $27 million, I would say that we do not expect an impact from our deal or the performance of that specific asset because it's true that we've made some money this year with that sale, but it's also true that we're going to save O&M going forward. So there will be no impact year over year in 27, and I'll ask Melissa to answer the question specifically on 26th. Thank you for joining us. The loss in the equipment sale that we had in the first half of the year that was negative. So these things, they tend to balance each other at the end. And I expect that we're going to have more in 27, but that's the nature of the business. But Melissa, in the 26th.
Melissa Schaeffer
Chief Financial Officer, Air Products
Sure, absolutely. So thank you, Eduardo. So from a volume perspective in America, to answer your question, it was a good portion of the volumes, but I will remind you we had very strong HEICO volumes in America, so we also had the contributions of new assets as well. Now, one thing I want to note for as we lead into 27, this will be recognized as a financing agreement. So at closing, we did remove the net book value on the balance sheet and established a financing receivable at the present value of the six payments. So what we will see next year, as Eduardo mentioned, will be neutral, and the customer will pay us a monthly fee for the purchase of the asset over the remaining nine years.
Multiple speakers
Brief acknowledgements / transition remarks; speaker identity is not uniquely attributable
Got it. Thanks very much for the call. I appreciate it.
Conference Call Operator
Operator
We will take our next question from Duffy Fisher with Goldman Sachs.
Multiple speakers: Steve Haines, Duffy Fisher, Hakeem, Patrick Cunningham, and Kevin
Analysts / analyst representatives, Morgan Stanley / Goldman Sachs / Bank of America / Citi / Jefferies
Good morning. I was hoping maybe just walk through where your coal gasification business in China is today, particularly the three plants with Luan, Dabang, and Zhutai, two held not for sale, but there's a bigger coal chemistry business around that. So I would assume that just like your HICO business, that's doing very well given this stuff in the Middle East. But just year over year, what does coal gasification do from 26 to 27? And kind of what were the results of the held for sale assets?
Eduardo Menezes
Chief Executive Officer, Air Products
Yeah. Yes, you know, we had three assets in China. We took two of these assets and we announced that they were set aside for sale. There were Zhutai and D-Bank. Jyotai was closed. We sold the asset at the end of the fiscal year, beginning of this fiscal year, 27. I believe we collected something, you know, a little over $250 million for that, and that will be out of our numbers going forward. Deep Bank is an asset that we also put for sale. We still expect to conclude that sale, but that also has some issues there with the customer, some legal procedures that are going forward. And because of limitations on how much time we can keep an asset held for sale in our books, We decided to take an adjustment, a write-down of this asset this quarter. So this is also out of our books at this point. Again, we expect that as soon as the arbitration is concluded that we're going to be able to proceed and close the sale of that asset as well. Those two assets, as you said, the coal gasification is going very strong in China right now. The issue that we had in these both assets were the quality of the counterparts that we had and a history of very complicated relationship in payments. The third asset that we have, which is the largest asset, which is Luan, is running basically above nameplate capacity, doing very well, and we do not expect any changes on that. So that's, in a nutshell, the story of our three projects in China.
Multiple speakers: John Roberts, Chris Perella, and Duffy Fisher
Analysts, Mizuho / UBS / Goldman Sachs
Thank you, guys.
Multiple speakers
Brief acknowledgements / transition remarks; speaker identity is not uniquely attributable
Thank you.
Conference Call Operator
Operator
We will take our next question from Matthew Deo with Bank of America.
Multiple speakers: Steve Haines, Duffy Fisher, Hakeem, Patrick Cunningham, and Kevin
Analysts / analyst representatives, Morgan Stanley / Goldman Sachs / Bank of America / Citi / Jefferies
Good morning. Hakeem on for Matthew. So even growth for 2017 seems strong with interest in tax being a more headwind to EPS growth. Can you provide some context into why they're rising and does that pressure kind of skew toward any quarter?
Melissa Schaeffer
Chief Financial Officer, Air Products
I'm sorry, I don't know if I... Yeah, absolutely, I think I can handle that one. So I think, Akeem, what you were asking about is the non-operating items as we head into fiscal 27. So the non-operating items are a headwind. As we are aware, because of the canceled projects, we have higher interest expense that was previously capitalized. So that is providing a headwind as we enter into next year. Additionally, we have a higher tax rate, and this is driven by the absence of U.S. tax credits and a decrease in foreign incentives associated to some of our foreign investments. So as we've mentioned, it's going to be about a 2% headwind versus 26%.
Multiple speakers
Brief acknowledgements / transition remarks; speaker identity is not uniquely attributable
Got it. Thank you so much.
Conference Call Operator
Operator
We will take our next question from John Roberts with Mizuho.
Multiple speakers: John Roberts, Chris Perella, and Duffy Fisher
Analysts, Mizuho / UBS / Goldman Sachs
Thank you. Does your 2027 CapEx include anything for ammonia cracking or maybe give us an update on your plans there?
Eduardo Menezes
Chief Executive Officer, Air Products
Good morning, John. No, we do not have anything specifically for that. We have one project we are still developing, a smaller project we're still developing in Rotterdam. We'll see how that goes. But we did not include anything material for 2027 in our guidance. I would say that the effort that we did as a company to reduce our capex was one of the things that I'm most proud of our performance in 26. And as you see, we had three years, conceptive years, that we were having a capex of $5 billion. We were able to reduce this year to 3.3. Our estimate for next year, it's still in this range of 3 to 3.5. That includes some of these legacy projects that we will finish by 27, 28. And at the same time, we're being able to raise our backlog and raise our expenditure in our traditional industrial gas projects. Our goal long-term is to have a backlog for regular industrial gas projects in the range of $4 to $4.5 billion that allow us to start every year $1.5 to $2 billion in projects, which is our goal at this point as a company. So, 2016 was also a very important year that we proved to ourselves that we can win in the marketplace, that we can bring these new projects and traditional technologies Thank you very much. Thank you very much. We understand exactly what the regulations are, and we have firm commitments from customers that justify these projects.
Multiple speakers
Brief acknowledgements / transition remarks; speaker identity is not uniquely attributable
Thank you.
Conference Call Operator
Operator
We will take our next question from Josh Spector with UBS.
Multiple speakers: John Roberts, Chris Perella, and Duffy Fisher
Analysts, Mizuho / UBS / Goldman Sachs
Hi, good morning. It's Chris Perella on for Josh. Can you just talk through, I guess, the puts and takes of the corporate line in the quarter and the outlook for 27? I think... Some corporate costs are supposed to roll off with the startup of GCA and just how that's going to compare or how you guys are penciling that in with the equipment sales and all the moving parts there?
Melissa Schaeffer
Chief Financial Officer, Air Products
Yeah, no, thanks for the question, Chris. You are right. Corporate was down versus prior year for this quarter. We saw very strong corporate functional productivity, but that was largely offset by the sale of equipment cost increases that we saw largely in the beginning of the first two quarters. But we did see some trail into the fourth quarter. So yes, again, strong functional productivity, but it was offset by the sale of equipment cost increases. and that will not repeat in FY27.
Multiple speakers: John Roberts, Chris Perella, and Duffy Fisher
Analysts, Mizuho / UBS / Goldman Sachs
All right, so what would be the, I guess, the step up or the step down in corporate that you guys are expecting next year with the increased cost savings and the less SOE drag?
Melissa Schaeffer
Chief Financial Officer, Air Products
So as you are aware, we had around a $7 million cost increase that will not repeat associated to the GCA project throughout the year. We do anticipate that to not repeat, and so that will be a tailwind for us in the corporate segment going into 27. Thank you.
Conference Call Operator
Operator
We will take our next question from Alexey Yeferimov with Barclays.
Alexey Yefremov
Analyst, Barclays
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. In your $4 billion pipeline in electronics and space, what's the related timeline for awards? Is it something inside of 12 months or something longer term? And if this is a shorter term number, how do you see the total TAM for electronics pipeline over, say, next two to three years?
Multiple speakers
Brief acknowledgements / transition remarks; speaker identity is not uniquely attributable
Good morning, Alex.
Eduardo Menezes
Chief Executive Officer, Air Products
Good question. We asked this question ourselves because these projects, they are moving very fast, as you can imagine. We expect that the decision for some of these projects to come very soon. I would say that the main hurdles that our customers are facing now are are both in the side of regulatory and a little bit on labor availability, even in countries where they didn't have that before. So it's getting, with the numbers that they have been published in terms of capex, you see that in Taiwan, you see that a little bit in Korea, in the U.S., and so forth. I think the customers are trying to push as hard as they can to make these decisions. We are trying to be responsive and be there. I would expect that you're going to see probably some major definitions being done in the next 12 months. I don't think they have good visibility much after that, but we'll see. In terms of the total market, we still believe that the semiconductor industry, with all the capex we see, all the projects, they're still, let's say, behind the expected demand, especially when you see what people talk about data centers and so forth. I think if a fraction of these data centers that people are talking about, if they go forward, it's still going to see a significant increase in semiconductors demand for the next five to six years. But at this point, you know, the things are moving so fast and furious that our main objective is really to stay close to these products that were going to be decided in the next 12 months and try to get our fair share or more than our fair share on those.
Conference Call Operator
Operator
We will take our next question from Abigail Eberts with Wells Fargo.
Abigail Eberts
Analyst, Wells Fargo
Thanks for taking my question. I'm curious about what your assumptions are regarding the conflict in the Middle East. It seems like the market is expecting, given election results, that it might conclude sooner than originally expected. I'm asking specifically as this pertains to what you called out on slide 20 regarding your expectation for elevated U.S. refinery rates to the full year 27. Thanks.
Multiple speakers
Brief acknowledgements / transition remarks; speaker identity is not uniquely attributable
Yeah, if I knew the answer for that one, Abigail,
Eduardo Menezes
Chief Executive Officer, Air Products
I would be selling that. But as you imagine, it's very important for us. The Middle East, we have very large facilities. We have a very large project we're building there. The impact of the Middle East crisis in the oil side, we see that in Europe in the form of high prices. We see that in the U.S. in the form of inflation. Thank you very much. We try not to be moved by these short-term events, like if the election goes this way, what will be the impact tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. I think at this point, we do not expect any meaningful resolution that will affect the heating market for at least six months. That's our assumption. I would say for the demand of refined products in the U.S., I would say that that will continue to be very strong, not because only the U.S. I think there is a shortage of refining capacity globally, and I think that will take several years to be resolved, so we expect that to continue to be very strong in the next 12 months. and those are the main impacts that we see and the assumptions we're making. But again, things can change very quickly and the straight may be open in a month and things can go back to normal, but that's not the base assumption that we use today.
Conference Call Operator
Operator
Got it. Thank you for the color.
Conference Call Operator
Operator
We will take our next question from Salvatore Tiano with KeyBank Capital Markets.
Salvatore Tiano
Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets
Thank you very much. Just want to check firstly on the Alberta project. What's kind of the expectation at this point for startup and contribution as well as where do you stand on contracting the volumes? And on the same front on contracted volumes on NEOM, I don't think there's been any new developments or agreements. At the same time, there's been actually a pretty steep pickup in activity for green ammonia by other suppliers in Asia. And I wonder, is there any reason, for example, why you haven't participated in this agreement? Is it a matter of price, for example, and the margins you could get?
Multiple speakers
Brief acknowledgements / transition remarks; speaker identity is not uniquely attributable
Yeah, two very different questions.
Eduardo Menezes
Chief Executive Officer, Air Products
So on Edmonton, we are working hard to finish the facility by the end of 27, so we do not expect any impact on that on our fiscal year 27. We are working on how to improve this project. We already made it clear that the project as it was expected to start would not contribute to our operating income. Of course, we are trying to see how we can improve that. I would say that the The changes in Canada in the direction of the prices of renewable diesel and credits and so forth, they gave us some hope that we can improve our position on that. But again, these are also part of all these geopolitical and tariff situations, and these things can change very quickly. We understand the ins and outs, but we see some... Some light there on trying to be able to commercialize the balance of the volume. But we'll keep you informed. And again, we still have more than a year to be able to get to the point that we need to do something there. On neon... Again, everyone can read all these announcements. A lot of those are MOUs and LOIs and from projects that do not exist today. Again, I tell people that Thank you very much. do not make a lot of sense versus the cost of the power plus all the capex you need to invest. I'm always very suspicious of that. So our project is basically construction completed. We're going to go through commissioning. It is a very complex commission. I mentioned that before. We're working on that. We expect to have... Thank you very much. So that's my take. We'll see how that develops. I mentioned before that I believe we're going to be the lowest cost producer of green ammonia forever, and we'll see how that positions us in the marketplace to sell the product.
Conference Call Operator
Operator
We will take our next question from Patrick Cunningham with Citi.
Multiple speakers: Steve Haines, Duffy Fisher, Hakeem, Patrick Cunningham, and Kevin
Analysts / analyst representatives, Morgan Stanley / Goldman Sachs / Bank of America / Citi / Jefferies
Hi, good morning. Just in terms of your line of sight in the positive free, it seems like most of the legacy clean energy projects will be near completion at year end. Are your base assumptions cash flow neutrality this year? And if you do expect to achieve more meaningful positive free cash flow in 2028, are you considering commencing a buyback program?
Multiple speakers
Brief acknowledgements / transition remarks; speaker identity is not uniquely attributable
Well, I think we...
Eduardo Menezes
Chief Executive Officer, Air Products
We're probably going to get to that point. Of course, when we get there, we need to go to our board first and get authorization for all that, and we're going to let you guys know. But yes, we expect that with these projects, as I said, we have a little over $2 billion to finish these projects. The majority of that will be spent in 2027. We'll have a tail in 2028. and assuming that everything goes as expected, even as we grow our capex and backlog for traditional industrial gas projects, we should have enough room on our cash flow to do that. And at that point, we'll discuss with our board and we'll make a decision on how to allocate the capital.
Conference Call Operator
Operator
We will take our next question from James Hooper with Bernstein.
James Hooper
Analyst, Bernstein
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Can I follow up on your portfolio optimization comments you made, Eduardo, please? And I know you've already talked about the gasification assets, but if you could give us a bit more color on what that means and how you're thinking about the assets in the portfolio and how you test them for returns, please.
Eduardo Menezes
Chief Executive Officer, Air Products
Good morning, James. It's not anything major. I think we talked about these gasification projects. We talked about the transaction we did in the U.S. for that reformer. I would say that The next one, which became public a few months ago, was the work that we're doing trying to understand if we're going to go forward with the IPO of our subsidiary in India. It is a Fantastic business that we have, probably our fastest growing JV, and the market in India is at very high multiples at this point, and our partner wants to go for that IPO. The obligations of disclosure obligations that you have In India, with the local regulations, SEBI, they are very, very specific. We publish an IPO prospectus of more than 500 pages. We cannot say more than what is there. We are proposing or considering to sell between 10% and 15% of the company. And by the interim regulations, if we go forward, we will have an obligation to do 25% in between three to five years. Of course, this is a question of opportunity, how you see the valuation. and we expect this decision for the initial trench that will also make us basically liable to do the entire 25%. We should take this decision during the first calendar quarter of 27. If we make that decision, it will be a function of what we think the proceedings will be and we will inform the Thank you very much.
Multiple speakers
Brief acknowledgements / transition remarks; speaker identity is not uniquely attributable
Thank you.
Conference Call Operator
Operator
We will take our next question from Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.
Kevin McCarthy
Analyst, Vertical Research Partners
Thank you very much and good morning. I'm curious to hear your thoughts on volume trajectory moving forward. And so maybe a two-part question on that subject. First, what are you baking into your fiscal 2027 EPS guide? related to volume specifically. And then second, maybe more broadly, Eduardo, as you look across the portfolio, where would you expect volumes to accelerate sitting here today in 27 versus 26? And where would you expect deceleration, either from an end market perspective or regionally?
Eduardo Menezes
Chief Executive Officer, Air Products
Yeah. Yeah, our 27 numbers guidance, I would say that, you know, you guys probably got that from the presentation, the remarks that in 26, we had a very strong performance on our business and we had a very strong performance on our affiliates. So our affiliate income in 26 increased around 14%. and that's a very significant number for a product. So 20% of our operating income comes from that equity-affiliated income. No, not operating income. Our EPS comes from that. 80% comes from our operating income from the business we consolidate and both had strong performances in 26 with the EAI growing faster than our business. For 27... for several different reasons. We expect the equity-filling income to be flat year over year. And when you have 20% of our EPS being flat, you imagine the pressure that it's putting on the rest of the operating income. So our operating income, our volumes that are embedded, our total number is around 2%, with another 3% additional coming from New assets that are coming on stream. But that is on the overall company, I would say, for the business we consolidate is even a little higher than that. But that's what we expect. On that math, there is a lot of components. We expect the hydrogen business in the U.S. to continue to be very strong and grow a little bit. We continue to expect the volumes in electronics to grow. And frankly, the rest of the economy, we see the same things that everybody sees. You know, a tough scenario in, you know, a very negative scenario in Europe, a tough scenario in the U.S., and a tough scenario in China. So, but overall, you know, our assumption is around 2%.
Kevin McCarthy
Analyst, Vertical Research Partners
Thank you very much.
Conference Call Operator
Operator
We will take our next question from Mike Harrison with Seaport Research Partners.
Mike Harrison
Analyst, Seaport Research Partners
Hi, good morning. Just a question about on-site maintenance costs in the Americas. It sounds like your Gulf Coast assets have been running pretty hard. Your refinery customers are running hard, maybe skipping or delaying for maintenance or turnaround activity. Just hoping that you could provide some guidance on how we should think about maintenance costs during fiscal 27, and are there any quarters where turnaround activity is maybe expected to be different from the normal cadence?
Multiple speakers
Brief acknowledgements / transition remarks; speaker identity is not uniquely attributable
Yeah, we continue to make progress with our maintenance costs.
Eduardo Menezes
Chief Executive Officer, Air Products
I think in 26, we made meaningful progress reducing our overall maintenance costs in the company. 27, we're still making the assumption that we're going to be able to do that. You are correct that there is some pressure on trying to run our assets as hard as possible. and we'll do that. We'll try to work with our customers but there is always a physical limitation of what you can and cannot do. But I would say that our goal is always to spend less on our maintenance. I have to say that... Thank you very much. What we see in the marketplace from suppliers and contractors, especially when you go for a turnaround at the same time your customer next door is doing the same and they are normally much, much bigger than we are, has been a headwind for us in terms of maintenance costs for several years. So we're trying to be creative and try to find different ways to reduce our costs.
Conference Call Operator
Operator
We will take our final question from Lourdes Alexander with Jefferies.
Multiple speakers: Steve Haines, Duffy Fisher, Hakeem, Patrick Cunningham, and Kevin
Analysts / analyst representatives, Morgan Stanley / Goldman Sachs / Bank of America / Citi / Jefferies
Good morning. This is Kevin on for Lawrence. Thank you for taking my question. So most of my questions have been asked, but just on maybe margin expansion, I just wanted to get a sense of, you know, after the first quarter, what the sort of cadence of margin expansion would be, maybe from Q2 to Q4?
Melissa Schaeffer
Chief Financial Officer, Air Products
Sure, absolutely. Thanks for the question. So as we look into our guidance for FY27 and our margin forecast, we are expecting a sizable improvement. This is driven by new asset contributions and base volume driving a good portion of that improvement. We are looking for also strong price over recovery as we continue to see those cost inflations that we talked about previously. The headwinds that we will be seeing are obviously the assets for health for sale and the gasification space that we have sold down, so those will not continue, and any other significant headwinds from cost inflation. So again, improvement through 27, largely driven on new asset contributions and base volume.
Multiple speakers
Brief acknowledgements / transition remarks; speaker identity is not uniquely attributable
Okay, thank you.
Conference Call Operator
Operator
That concludes today's question and answer session. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Menezes for any additional or closing remarks.
Eduardo Menezes
Chief Executive Officer, Air Products
Thank you all for joining our call today. We appreciate your interest in our products and we look forward to discuss our results in the next one. Have a safe day. Thank you. Bye.
Conference Call Operator
Operator
This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.