BAP Credicorp, Ltd

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Credicorp, Ltd Q2 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Friday, August 14, 2026

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Operator
Conference Call Operator
Good morning, everyone. I would like to welcome you to the Credit Corp Ltd. Second Quarter 2026 Conference Call. A slide presentation will accompany today's webcast, which is available in the Investors section of Credit Corp's website. Today's conference call is being recorded. As a reminder, all participants will be in listen-only mode. There will be an opportunity for you to ask questions at the end of today's presentation. If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you have connected to the call using the HD web phone on your computer, please use the keypad on your computer screen. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Now, it is my pleasure to turn the conference over to Credit Corp's IRO, Milagros Cigüeñas. You may begin.
Milagros Cigüeñas
Investor Relations Officer
Thank you and good morning, everyone. Speaking on today's call will be Gianfranco Ferrari, our Chief Credit Officer, and Alejandro Perez-Reyes, our Chief Financial Officer. Participating in the Q&A session will also be Francesca Raffo, Chief Innovation Officer, Cesar Rios, Chief Risk Officer, Diego Cabrero, Head of Universal Banking, Eduardo Montero, Head of Insurance and Pensions, and Rocio Benavidez, CFO at MiBank.
spk07
Before we proceed, I would like to make the following safe harbor statement.
Milagros Cigüeñas
Investor Relations Officer
Today's call will contain forward-looking statements which are based on management's current expectations and beliefs and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. And I refer you to the forward-looking statement section in our earnings release and recent filings with the FCC. We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect new or changed events or circumstances. Gianfranco Ferrari will begin the call with remarks on the current operating environment, credit card strategic priorities, and the key drivers underpinning our confidence in achieving a medium-term ROE of around 22%. He will also highlight our strong performance this quarter. Alejandro Perez-Reyes will then review our financial performance in greater detail and discuss our outlook for 2026. Gianfranco, please go ahead.
Gianfranco Ferrari
Chief Credit Officer
Thank you, Milagros. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Before reviewing our quarterly performance, I would like to begin by sharing why we have greater confidence in Peru's medium-term outlook and what this means for credit corp. We believe Peru is entering a more favorable environment for growth. This confidence is grounded first in the continued improvement of the country's underlying economic fundamentals. Private investment, domestic demand, favorable commodity prices, and business confidence were already gaining momentum before the recent elections. The political transition could help reinforce this momentum, greater visibility around the policy agenda, a less-sugmented Congress, and continued commitment to produce sound macroeconomic framework and private investment would further support Congress. Early signals of policy continuity and discipline, including the formation of a new and solid technical team at the Ministry of Economy and Finance and continuity at the central bank, are encouraging and consistent with a more predictable economic environment. Data supports this view. Business confidence has recovered to its highest level in years. Private investment is growing by approximately 13% And domestic demand by more than 5%. Peru also continues to benefit from exceptional payroll commodity prices, with gold prices having roughly doubled since 2023 and copper prices increasing nearly 60%. Together, these factors are strengthening investment, trading demand, and economic activity, providing a solid foundation for stronger medium-term growth. The principal near-term risk to this outlook is aluminum. When we recognize its potential impact on families, communities, and small businesses, we continue to view it as a temporary and manageable shock rather than a structural change in Peru's growth trajectory. At PlayCorp, we are prepared to support our clients and communities through this period. Leveraging our ecosystem, distribution channels, and digital capabilities to help them anticipate and manage potential disruptions. Alejandro will provide more details on the expected financial impact and how we are incorporating currently available information related to El Nino risk into our financial outlook. Importantly, based on the information currently available, El Nino does not alter our broader confidence in Peru's medium-term outlook or its pericorp's ability to continue delivering sustainable growth. Across the region, the outlook remains mixed, but constructive over the medium term. In Chile, while near-term activities have been softer than expected, the investment pipeline elevated copper prices and policies aimed at encouraging private investment support a better outlook. In Colombia, despite ongoing challenges and the terrible impact of the recent earthquake Market sentiment has improved following recent political developments, reflected in a stronger currency and lower sovereign yields. Overall, the improving operating environment reinforces our confidence in Pericorp's long-term outlook. Against this backdrop, we delivered a strong second quarter with solid performance across our businesses and continued progress against our strategic priorities. Let me now walk you through the key results. We delivered another quarter of strong execution, reporting a 20.3% ROE, reflecting the strength of our diversified business model and solid performance across our core businesses. Operational momentum remained robust across the franchise. Our innovation portfolio contributed 9.9% of credit cost risk-adjusted readiness, keeping us firmly on track toward our strategic objectives while demonstrating demonstrating how the portfolio is becoming an increasingly meaningful contributor to our earnings profile. We're also seeing trade demand continue to strengthen. One growth accelerated across our main lending businesses supported by both retail and wholesale banking at DCP as well as Miraco. Our profitability continues to benefit from discipline execution. Risk adjusted mean stood at 5.5% supported by our low-cost funding advantage, healthy portfolio mix, and disciplined pricing. Our strong capital position and disciplined risk management continue to provide resilience. We're actively monitoring El Nino risk, reinforcing our ability to support clients while maintaining a sound risk profile. At the same time, we remain focused on building the business for the long term. Our efficiency ratio stood at 45.4%, while investments in innovation and digital capabilities continue to broaden our revenue base, deepen customer engagement, foster financial inclusion, and support more scalable growth. As we have discussed in recent quarters, our previous medium-term ROE expectation of around 19.5% had become increasingly conservative As our performance strengthens and the underlying economics of our business continue to improve, with greater visibility across our key markets and earning drivers, we believe the time is right to update our medium-term ROE expectations. We now believe Pericorp has the capacity to deliver a medium-term return on equity of approximately 22%. This reflects a more stable operating environment, but more importantly, the structural transformation of our ecosystem. Over the past several years, we've strengthened the drivers of our earnings, improving the quality of our loan portfolio, enhancing risk management capabilities, reinforcing our structural funding advantage, and diversifying our sources of revenue. At the same time, we have invested consistently in technology, data, and talent, Creating a more scalable and efficient business model. Innovation is an increasingly important part of that transformation. It is expanding financial inclusion and deepening customer relationships while becoming a more meaningful contributor to growth, early diversification, and long-term resilience. Together, these structural improvements position us to deliver stronger and more sustainable profitability across economic cycles. We look forward to sharing more information about how our innovation strategy is becoming an increasingly important driver of growth and value creation across credit corps at our Drift Road Strategy Update on November 17th. Now, let me turn the call over to Alejandro.
Alejandro Perez-Reyes
Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Gianfranco, and good morning, everyone. As Gianfranco mentioned, we delivered a 20.3% ROE this quarter. supported by strong operating performance, accelerated loan growth, and higher risk-adjusted revenues across our diversified business ecosystem. To discuss the quarter highlights, I will focus on the year-over-year operating trends. Loans measured in quarter-end balances increased 13.1%. This uptick was driven primarily by BCP through both retail and wholesale banking and by MiBank. Asset quality improved further, with credit course NPL ratio declining to 4.1% for the quarter, supported by better origination quality and enhanced collections capabilities. The cost of risk stood at 1.9%, reflecting portfolio growth within our risk appetite, and an impact of 27 basis points due to El Nino-related provisions based on currently available information. Net interest income increased 13.3%, mainly driven by lower interest expenses supported by our local funding structure and by a higher yielding loan mix. Against this backdrop, NIN stood at 6.6%. Other core income grew 19.7%. Fee income increased 15.9% boosted by transactional activity at YAPE and BCP. Gains on FX transactions rose 29.8% through higher volumes at BCP, which rose in context of a higher volatility. in the context of higher volatility. Lastly, the insurance underwriting results decreased, mainly reflecting a base effect from provision reversals recorded in the second quarter of last year in the live business. At our base price business portfolio, strong capital position and healthy asset quality puts us in good stead to navigate potential El Nino impact as we continue to execute our strategic priorities. Next slide, please. The loose economy remained resilient in the second quarter of the year. with GDP estimated to have grown by around 3% year-over-year. Robust domestic demand, supported by historically high terms of trade, employment gains, and ongoing business cycle momentum, helped offset a sharp contraction in primary activities. Primary GDP is estimated to have fallen by nearly 5% year-over-year, marking its steepest decline since 2014, excluding the pandemic. Athenia-related disruptions weighted on fishing, agriculture, and primary manufacturing. Despite these headwinds, domestic demand is estimated to have expanded roughly 5% year-over-year, reporting the seventh consecutive quarter of strong growth. High-frequency indicators continue to signal growth-based and robust economic expansion, with several indicators posting double-D year-over-year growth. Private investment expectations have rebounded sharply following the presidential election, reaching their highest level since the series began in 2013. President Keiko Fujimori has confirmed Julio Velarde's continuation as Governor of the Central Bank and appointed Elmer Cuba, a respected macroeconomist and former Central Bank Director, as Finance Minister, reinforcing expectations of solid and predictable macroeconomic policy under the new administration. Next slide, please. Under Chairman Kevin Walsh, the Federal Reserve has emphasized its commitment to price stability and signed on limited tolerance for persistently elevated inflation. Economists remain divided between expectations of additional rate hikes and an extended cost in monetary policy. In Peru, annual inflation remained around 4% year-over-year between April and July, its highest level since late 2023, driven primarily by higher local transportation costs. Core inflation, excluding transportation, is still below 2%. Annual inflation is slightly to 6% year-over-year in July, down from 6.1% in June, marking the first moderation after four consecutive monthly increases. Inflation remains elevated, however, partly reflecting the significant minimum wage increase implemented at the beginning of the year. The central bank has responded by raising its policy rate by 275 basis points since December. Investor sentiment, in turn, has improved following the election of President Abelardo de la Priela. In this context, the peso has appreciated sharply, making its strongest showing against the U.S. dollar since 2019. In Chile, higher oil prices and weaker than expected mining production have weighted on the economic outlook this year. Annual inflation is to 3.5% year-over-year in July, after reaching its highest level in nine months in June, while the central bank has kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.5%. In June 2026, Bolivia transitioned to a market-based FX framework, replacing its long-standing PEG. We do not anticipate a material impact on Credit Corp, given that we incorporated market exchange rate dynamics in Bolivia in our reporting as of the first quarter of last year. In parallel, the IMF and authorities reached a staff-level agreement on a new program of about $1.9 billion to support the country's economic reform program. Although uncertainty persists around oil prices, geopolitical developments in the Middle East, and the potential impact of El Niño during the remainder of the year, as Gianfranco mentioned, we believe that improvements in the regional operating environment support our confidence in a more favorable medium-term outlook. Next slide, please. Before moving on, I would like to address El Niño risk in Peru, a key topic for investors assessing our earnings, asset quality, and capital generation resilience. El Niño is a transitory event that periodically affects Peru. While it may create short-term volatility, it does not alter our long-term view of the Peruvian economy or its underlying strength. So far in 2026, El Niño-Costero has mainly affected Peru's fishing, agriculture, and related activities in the north, while the broader economy has remained resilient. The strongest impacts would likely materialize in the first quarter of next year if the event intensifies or converges with a global El Niño scenario. From a macro perspective, we estimate 2027 GDP growth to remain resilient around 3% under a moderate to strong El Niño scenario, while an extraordinary event could lead to a more pronounced slowdown. Importantly, Peru is entering this period with stronger fundamentals and higher liquidity across the financial system than in prior El Niño episodes. For Credit Corp, estimated direct exposure to potentially affected clients is approximately 9% of total loans. While visibility should improve toward the last quarter of this year, we are already incorporating the currently available information related to linear risk, resulting in additional provisions starting in June. Under the scenarios currently assessed, we expect full-year 2026 cost of risk to remain within guidance. Looking towards 2027, a more severe event could moderate loan growth and fee income through downward pressures on activity. However, we are better prepared than in previous similar events, supported by lower direct exposure, Early Mitigation, Stronger Risk Management and Analytics, and Healthier Portfolio Quality. More broadly, this is not a new risk for us. We have a robust governance framework and mitigation playbook supported by enhanced data and digital capabilities. This helps us identify vulnerable clients earlier, communicate at scale, and deploy targeted actions faster. In short, we are approaching this scenario from a position of strength. Portfolio quality remains healthy, our balance sheet is strong, And we are confident in our ability to manage potential El Nino impact while supporting clients, communities, and the broader Peruvian economy and preserving profitability. Next slide, please. This quarter, BCP's profitability remains strong with a favorable economic backdrop. Loan growth continues to accelerate as underlying credit risk trends remain positive. In parallel, currently available information related to El Nino risk has been incorporated into provision. In this context, ROE stood at 29.2%. From a quarter-over-quarter perspective, total loans rose 4.7%. In FX-neutral terms, loan growth stood at 5.5%. Retail loans led the expansion, bolstered by performance in the consumer and SME payment segments. Additionally, wholesale loans rose primarily on the back of long-term loans, as the outlook for private investment continued to improve. NIMS stood at 6.1% as the loan portfolio shifted to a higher-yield mix while funding costs remained stable. The NPR ratio fell to 3.9%. This result was driven by improvements across business segments, where the NPR ratio fell on the back of fortified risk management capabilities. The cost of risk rose to 1.4%, reflecting the normalization of underlying cost of risk and additional El Nino-related provisions. Underlying provisioning was mainly driven by portfolio growth in specific retail segments, particularly consumer and SME PMA, where higher yielding products continue to perform within our expectations. As a result, BCP's risk-adjusted NIMS stood at 5.2%. On a year-over-year basis, total loans rose 10.9% and 12.2% in FX neutral terms, led by retail banking and secondarily by wholesale banking, through the same factors mentioned in the quarter-over-quarter analysis. NIEM rose 12 basis points, mainly driven by funding cost improvement alongside an increase in low-cost deposits' share of total funding. The FBA ratio dropped 93 basis points, fueled mainly by the SME, PMA, and individual segments, mostly driven by better origination and enhanced collection capabilities. Cost of risk rose 25 basis points, mainly as a result of higher loan volumes rather than a deterioration in underlying credit trends. Higher core income rose 15.4%. Driven mainly by fee income, a strong transactional activity was channeled through IAPE and BCP. Gains and effect transactions also contributed to this result, albeit to a lesser extent, as transacted volumes rose significantly in a context marked by high volatility. As a result, the ratio of other core income to assets remained strong, supported by our diversified revenue streams. Finally, operating expenses, which are better explained on an accumulated basis, rose for 14.9% year-to-date due to an uptick in both administrative and personal expenses. Administrative expenses rose on the back of growth in IT-related services and use of cloud infrastructure. Personal expenses rose driven by the continued development of commercial and technological capabilities and by an uptick in variable compensation. In this context, the efficiency ratio stood at 38.6% for the first half of the year. Next slide, please. JAPE continues to strengthen its position as Peru's leading digital ecosystem. The platform remains highly engaged, with more than 16 million monthly active users transacting 69 times per month and maintaining an MPS of 78. Customer engagement remains exceptionally strong, and we continue to see that translate into stronger unit economics. Revenue per mile reached 11.1 soles, outpacing growth in expenses per mile, which stood at 6 soles. YAPE's contribution to credit corps' risk-adjusted revenues increased to 8.9%, reinforcing its growing relevance within the group. At the same time, YAPE continues to expand its financial services footprint. Loans reached $1.8 billion solid, up four times year-over-year, while the number of clients receiving loan disbursements increased to 5.6 million. With loan penetration at around one-third of monthly active users, We continue to see significant opportunities to further expand lending adoption, increase customer lifetime value, and deepen financial inclusion across Peru. As YAPE scales, the composition of YAPE's revenues continues to evolve. Lending further increased its contribution to 28%, while payment contributions stood at 45%. Moreover, revenue-generating payment transactions grew 42% year-over-year. continuing to strengthen JAPE's ability to generate data, enhance customer engagement, and unlock cross-selling opportunities across credit groups. JAPE's strong engagement, improving monetization, and significant headroom for deeper product and service adoption position the platform to sustain scalable, profitable growth. Next slide, please. MiBanco continues to strengthen its franchise, combining healthy growth with disciplined risk management. At the same time, We continue fostering revenue diversification to enhance the resilience and quality of earnings. This strong execution translated into a quarterly ROE of 22.9%. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, loans measured in quarter-end balances grew 4.4%, supported by continued growth in low ticket loans, the main driver of recent quarters, and a greater focus on higher ticket segments where larger loan sizes accelerated volume growth. In this context, the NPA ratio continues its downward trend, reaching a record low of 4.8%. The average yield on interest-earning assets maintains an upward trend offsetting a slight uptick in the cost of funding. As a result, NIMH rose 23 basis points to stand at 15.2%. The cost of REITs rose 30 basis points and stood at 5.1%, reflecting higher underlying provisions and additional and El Nino-related provisions. Provisioning for underlying credit risk growths driven primarily by portfolio growth within our risk appetite, and to a lesser extent, slight increase in RIDOs. Risk-adjusted MIM stood at 11.2%, down five basis points. From a year-over-year perspective, loans rose 15%, supported by improved productivity amid a dynamic economy. In this context, our portfolio's margin increased despite a slight uptick in the cost of funding. As a result, MIM rose 78 basis points, The cost of risk fell 24 basis points on the back of lower-risk vintages. Despite ongoing investments in strategic initiatives to fuel digital transformation and modernize technology, the efficiency ratio for the first half of the year dropped 4 percentage points to stand at 48%. Bibanco Colombia continued to deliver strong results with double-D loan growth, disciplined risk management, and enhanced commercial productivity. As a result, ROE reached 18.5% for the work. Next slide, please. Grupo Pacifico delivered solid results this quarter on the back of strong commercial execution across all businesses. In this context, ROE stood at 19.1% at quarter end. Net income remained relatively flat year over year. Pacifico continues to deliver solid profitability led by our live business, the largest contributor to net income. Our live business posted healthy organic growth this quarter driven by strong momentum in bank assurance and retail sales. Nevertheless, net income reported lower results due to a base effect associated with provisional reversals in the disability and survivorship line in the second quarter of last year. In the PNC business, net income fell driven primarily by lower underwriting results which raised their higher claims. Our corporate health business posted higher net income for the quarter, Supported by stronger premium production as the customer base expanded. Meanwhile, results in our medical services business remain relatively stable, supported by resilient commercial dynamics and disciplined cost management. Profitability in our investment management and advisory business strengthened significantly this quarter. Sustained growth in recurring businesses, coupled with an uptick in trading contributions due to temporary market volatility, and many others, drove a strong ROE of 23.5%. From a year-over-year perspective, revenues increased, supported by solid performance across our recurring businesses. Asset management and wealth management contributed positively, with AUM up 44% and 30% respect. The capital market line also contributed significantly to results, where heightened market volatility and increased activity among corporate clients created favorable conditions to boost trading and client-driven revenues. Higher revenues were partially upset by an increase in operating expenses, where the APTIC was driven by a comparatively low base in the first half of 2025. As a result, net income increased 47% year-over-year. Next slide, please. Now I'd like to examine the evolution of our consolidated balance sheet. Sequentially, interest-earning assets grew 1.8%, driven primarily by loan growth at BCP, and to a lesser extent, by hiring investment balances as we capitalize on tactical opportunities by leveraging our cash position. On the liability side, the 3.5% funding increase was driven by growth in demand and time deposits and an uptick in the balance of central bank funding instruments. On a year-over-year basis, interest-earning assets rose 12.2%, led by long growth at BCP and Milagros. The impact of this shift in the asset mix offset the impact of decreasing interest rates, keeping the yield on interest-earning assets table at 8.4%. On the liability side, lower interest rates and an increase in the share of low-cost deposits drove up 29 basis points decline in the funding cost, which stood at 2.2% at quarter end. Against this backdrop, MIM was 6.6% for the quarter. Next slide, please. Moving on to non-portfolio quality. Portfolio quality continued to evolve favorably this quarter as MPLs broke to 4.1%. Based on current available information, we registered approximately $106 million in additional approbations related to AdminioRisk. This brought our reported cost of risk to 1.9%. Excluding this impact, cost of risk stood at 1.6%, primarily reflecting portfolio growth within our risk appetite. Underlying portfolio trends remained solid, supported by healthier vintages and enhanced risk capabilities. As a result, coverage levels remained strong, reinforcing the balance sheet's ability to absorb future volatility while preserving capacity to support growth. In this context, the NPL coverage ratio rose and stood at 117.3%. Next slide, please. Core income grew 15.1% year-over-year on the back of diverse revenue streams with net interest income, fees, and FX gains reporting double-digit expansion. Profitability metrics continue to strengthen year-over-year, with risk-adjusted means standing at 5.5% this quarter, reflecting disciplined pricing, portfolio mix optimization, and solid underlying credit performance. The efficiency ratio for the first half of the year stood within guidance of 45.6%. Operating expenses grew 13.5%, fueled primarily by core businesses and BCP and investments in our innovation portfolio. Growth in core business expenses at BCP was driven mainly by IT expenses for commercial and transactional capabilities development. Expenses for our innovation portfolio, which were led by IAPE, Tempo, and Kulki, rose 33% and represented 84% of disruptive expenses for the work. Next slide, please. First half ROE reached 21.2%, supported by the strength of our integrated business ecosystem and ongoing improvement in economic conditions. Net income remained robust, bolstered primarily by accelerated loan growth across key businesses. Loan expansion was achieved alongside prudent risk management and complemented by an increase in contributions from diversified revenue streams, which rose from the lack of marketing, transactional, and digital capabilities. Now, I will move on to our guidance. Next slide, please. We continue to expect Perú's GDP to grow around 3.5% in 2026, including the estimated impact of El Niño. We are raising our outlook for loan growth, measured in quarter end balances, to around 12%, reflecting stronger than expected momentum primarily in retail banking at BCP and Nibales. The expected loan mean shift towards retail, coupled with a more recent scenario where interest rates are expected to remain higher for longer, should support NIM and risk-adjusted NIM. which we expect to stand at the higher end of our guidance range. As retail ordination continues to expand and we incorporate currently available information related to a new risk, we expect the cost of risk to increase in the second half of the year and to remain within our guidance range. We are also raising our fee income outlook, now expecting high teens growth supported by stronger transactional activity, continued economic momentum, and our strategy to strengthen principalities. Deficiency ratio is expected to remain within guidance. We are reaffirming our training to exceed survey guidance of around 19.5%, with a current bias to the upside, subject to how El Niño evolves. While operating income came in ahead of our expectations, visibility on the potential severity of El Niño remains limited. As new information becomes available, we will continue to reflect updated El Niño-related provisions. Looking ahead to the medium term, as Gianfranco mentioned earlier, we expect ROE to move structurally higher. This outlook is supported by stronger loan growth across our core businesses, a higher yield-portfolio mix, sustained funding advantage, and increasing contributions from fee-based revenues. As our ecosystem-based initiatives continue to scale, we expect to capture greater operating leverage while maintaining disciplined risk management and capital allocation. Together, these drivers strengthen our ability to deliver a medium-term ROE of around 22%. Before we begin the Q&A, and given that this will be my last conference call as Credit Corp CFO, I would like to take a moment to thank all of you for your support, engagement, and constructive dialogue throughout my tenure. Your questions, insights, and feedback have helped us make us better, and I'm deeply grateful for your professionalism and trust. As I take on my new role leading Ivanko and Credicorp's microfinance business, I look forward to staying connected with many of you and sharing our progress and perspectives on the opportunities ahead. I would also like to wish Ignacio every success in his new role. Having worked closely with him for the last two and a half years, I am confident that he will do an outstanding job and I know Credicorp will continue to benefit under his leadership and expertise. Now, I would like to open the Q&A session.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you have connected to the call using the HD web phone on your computer, please use the keypad on your computer screen. If you are using a speaker phone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. We will pause for just a moment to allow everyone the opportunity for questions. We also ask that you please only ask one question at a time. After each question has been addressed by our speakers, you will then be allowed to ask as many follow-ups as needed. But again, please only ask one question at a time. Thank you. The first question will come from Ernesto Gabilondo with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
spk13
Thank you. Hi, good morning, Gianfranco, Alejandro, Ignacio, Cesar, Francesca, and Milagros. Congrats on your second quarter results and in your conviction of reaching a medium-term ROE of 22% in the next years. And also very helpful, the slide that you provided about El Niño, very, very helpful. So my question would be on long-growth. Congrats on returning to a double-digit long-growth, and I noted that you're expecting around 12% growth in this year. But having said that, how should we think about the long-growth breakdown by segment? You also understand if you would be conservative in the risky portfolio or how comfortable you are to grow the portfolio under a potentially strong El Niño. Thank you.
Cesar Rios
Chief Risk Officer
Thank you, Ernesto, for your question. Regarding El Niño, I would say that our approach has been both comprehensive, trying to address the different dimensions on the impact, and also very granular at the same time. As Alejandro has highlighted, we have identified the parts of the portfolio by segment, by geography, by field of the client that are going to be more impacted under the scenarios that we have contemplated, and we are adjusting and going to adjust gradually. The appetite in this segment varies periodically, so our impact is going to be related to this part of the portfolio depending on the severity, but in the rest of the country, Sati to Economic Growth, Our Ambition and Expectations Remains Strong.
Gianfranco Ferrari
Chief Credit Officer
This is Gianfranco. Many complimenting Cesar's comments. Actually, the question has a twofold answer. One is specifically on El Niño, which is what Cesar answered. I would only add there that we're also trying to be proactive in helping our clients to be more prepared for the impact by industry, by region, by really . But the other answer is more, a longer term answer is, as we mentioned along the presentation, business confidence is at record levels. Private investment has been growing at double digits. Private consumption has been growing over 5% over the last, I believe, six quarters already. Commodity prices are where they are and so on. Yes, Nino is, I would say, like a hiccup in terms of potential negative impact, but in a more longer-term vision, we're very confident that the macro environment is very, very positive.
Alejandro Perez-Reyes
Chief Financial Officer
Maybe, this is Alejandro, maybe just to add one more Another important data point to Gianfranco's comment is the loan penetration. I think I mentioned this sometime before, but if you take constant exchange rates of December of 2025, at the end of last quarter, the penetration of loans in Peru is 34%. In 2019, it was 42% to GDP. There's still an opportunity even to go back to numbers that we've already seen. We think the opportunity is big. If we add to that the capabilities that we have developed, we are really confident in the mid-term loan growth, regardless of the hiccups that might come in the short term.
spk13
Perfect. Very helpful, Gianfranco, Cesar and Alejandro. And just to follow up on all this in terms of the trend, For example, wholesale and retail, should we expect in both long portfolios to be at the double digit because of what you were mentioning? Private investment, private consumption, commodities prices, all that should be helping. And in that scenario, very, very granular in what could be exposed related to El Niño. So how should we think about the long world for both segments? Double digit for both or how are you thinking about it?
Alejandro Perez-Reyes
Chief Financial Officer
Yes, we are expecting, I mean, again, without considering the hiccup coming from El Nino, we are expecting double-digit loan growth for both wholesale and retail. Retail has been already showing it, and we were mentioning wholesale is picking up again with very high expectations from private investment. So, yes, the short answer is yes, both portfolios should grow double-digit.
spk13
Perfect. Thank you very much.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
The next question will come from Brian Flores with Citibank. Please go ahead
spk12
Hi team, good morning. Congratulations on the results and best of lucks to Alejandro and Ignacio on their respective roles. I have a question on asset quality. The cost of risk seems to be very controlled despite the fast growth you're showing right across the board in SMEs, in YAPE, in consumer. So we wanted to understand strategically if we as analysts, do you think we're, I don't know, maybe underestimating how much better your underwriting is or the collections have improved? Or do you think this is more extraordinary regarding the extraordinary liquidity in the system, the good conditions from the macro? Just wanted to understand how much do you think this is idiosyncratic and how much would this be more of a tailwind from the macro side?
Cesar Rios
Chief Risk Officer
Thank you, Brian, for the question. I think without that, the positive economic environment is a significant factor. As we have mentioned previously, we have been working very disciplined in several parts of the risk capabilities and the origination, models, monitoring, collections, and we have entered, I would say, after initial phase of identifying We are developing, I would say, better, higher capabilities and we are starting to reap the benefits of that. The approach is very disciplined, also in the other subsidiaries of the group, level by level, and we are developing and deploying these capabilities. These capabilities are also going to help us to withstand the potential impacts of El Niño. But our long-term vision is that we are going to increase the capacity to originate higher, in general, higher yielding loans with controlled risk, monitoring very closely the risk appetite. Alejandro highlighted specifically the collections. We have been more focused on models, origination, monitoring, and recently we have started to develop additional capabilities and collections that are showing results in BCP and NIVAM. So the short answer is the environment helps, but we are doing our job improving internally.
Gianfranco Ferrari
Chief Credit Officer
Just one quick comment on top of what Cesar just mentioned. Don't forget that we don't manage by cost of risk, we manage by risk-adjusted means. So yes, the cost of risk may increase, but what we're convinced is that the risk-adjusted means is going to increase more than that, really. Because as we go into new markets, the YAPE portfolio is a great example. Yes, the cost of risk is higher, but the risk of adjustment is also higher.
spk12
No, super clear, Gianfranco. Thank you. Just also, if I may, a quick follow-up on your recent comment. We know, obviously, we have a new administration coming in. Just wanted to check with you after maybe your initial approaches with them if you feel the tone in terms of partnerships, in terms of growth is a bit more upbeat, or are you a bit more constructive in terms of the outlook here for particularly growth, right?
Gianfranco Ferrari
Chief Credit Officer
Yes, as Alejandro mentioned before, the penetration in the financial system, we've gone back. It's still very low and we've gone back. We haven't had any specific contact with the new administration, but from what we see and listen, the whole environment is going to be much more proactive in terms of The next question will come from Renato Meloni with Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.
spk11
Hi everyone, good morning, congrats on the results and thanks for taking the question here. I wanted you to expand your comments on the provisions for El Nino and what to expect going forward. So first on the 106 million this quarter, was that done like client specific or it was that more sector specific in the ones that you mentioned before? and then going forward, is this going to be like a recurring level for the next couple of quarters or this is enough for the foreseeable future? Thank you.
Gianfranco Ferrari
Chief Credit Officer
Cesar?
Cesar Rios
Chief Risk Officer
Yes, thank you for the question Renato. As we mentioned, we have done a very thorough analysis of the portfolio Talking specifically the provision thing, we have done client by client, segment by segment in the wholesale part of the portfolio. In the retail, we have used an approach of geography and profile of the client. We have several scenarios. We are, with the logic of expected losses that is embedded in the logic of IFRS 9, we are constituting provisioning and we are going to have probably a second important point of control at the end of the second quarter, the beginning of the, sorry, at the end of the third quarter, the beginning of the fourth, because in our conversation with the specialist, the climatologist, at this point, September, October, we are going to have a much better assessment of the severity. We are moving in the expectation of medium and strong aluminum and at this point, We are going to make a reassessment to calibrate the expected losses that we need to book this year.
spk11
Perfect. So, September, October, a potential new adjustment, and that's going to be it for this year. And when we get to 2027, when you mentioned it's when the economy will see the impacts, maybe another one there or potentially reversing. What was that? Yes.
Gianfranco Ferrari
Chief Credit Officer
The way we provision through IFRS 9 is a forward-looking provision. Therefore, you're completely right. Depending on the data, as Cesar just mentioned, depending on the data we can analyze in September, October, we will make a new assessment. And as we move forward and the real impact of the NINO comes into play, we will decide what that will be. The models will tell us The next question will come from Daniel Vaz with SAFRA. Please go ahead.
spk00
Hi guys, good morning. Congrats on the results. Alejandro and Ignacio, wishing you the success on your new roles. So my question is regarding your refreshed midterm ROE guidance. So we often, as you are a bank, we often do a bottom-up analysis to your model, but Credit You still are holding also, right? So, you have a lot of businesses. We could look at the top-down view or some of the parts view also. So, I guess my question is, which companies in your holding carry the most upside right now? So, Mi Banco is already running above the 22% guidance, BCP runs at 30s and Pacifico ND Advisory runs below. So, should we expect even better ROEs at the ones that already run above it or ROE is improving at the ones which were at this level right now. Thank you.
Gianfranco Ferrari
Chief Credit Officer
Alejandro?
Alejandro Perez-Reyes
Chief Financial Officer
Yes, thank you, Daniel. I'll first start talking about the levers that we believe are behind the new midterm ROE that we've shared, and then give you some color on the specific questions. We believe this comes from continuing to grow in the under-penetrated financial product segment. And this, by the way, is lending, but it's also investments, it's also insurance. So, all in all, they are all under-penetrated segments, even if you compare them to countries like Colombia and, of course, Chile. So, there's still an opportunity to continue penetrating. The other thing is that we are expecting higher risk-adjusted margins. These are supported by pricing, the shifting portfolio mix that I've been mentioning, risk capabilities also, so we should see an impact there. The other important thing is an increasing fee income and monetization of our innovation portfolio. YAPE being the most visible one, but other ones coming down the pipeline that should start to generate also more fee income. And a positive operating leverage. where basically income should grow faster than our expenses. So all of those things bring us to this new around 22% ROE. When you talk specifically, I think both things can be true in the sense that we believe there's still space for some improvement in ROE in the companies that are performing strong today, say BCP, Mibanco, going back to this penetration in lending, et cetera. But if you think about also the underpenetration in insurance, underpenetration in mutual funds, there is still space also in the other companies. So we are not seeing this like specifically in one or two companies. We believe there's space for improvement across the board.
Gianfranco Ferrari
Chief Credit Officer
Just to add on what Alejandro just mentioned, also bear in mind the impact on the disruptive initiatives. The next question will come from Carlos Gomez-Lopez, which ate at BC. Please go ahead.
spk05
Thank you for taking the question and the first thing congratulations and thank you to Alejandro for this time with us. It has been brief but it has been good and good luck to Ignacio and his new role. I want to go back to the same question which is the target per array and my question is a little bit different. What is the urgency to increase the mid-term array? You were at around 17% for a long time, increased only last October to 19.5%. Now you've got 22. At this point in time where arguably everything is going right, you've delivered 21%. Is this something that you are setting an internal goal or something has changed fundamentally that makes you believe that you absolutely need to be there? And I also ask that because I go back in time and over the last 10 or 20 years, your RAs have been my number 17 and a half, 19%. That's even taken out COVID. and you actually are less leveraged now than you were then. You have more capital. So, I mean, it would stand to reason that maybe, you know, it doesn't get that high. So, we want to understand why you need to move the target now. And again, I don't doubt that you can achieve it. I'm just wondering why.
Alejandro Perez-Reyes
Chief Financial Officer
Thank you. Hi, Carlos. This is Alejandro. So, I'll begin by saying that, yes, we did mention the 19 and a half in October of last year, but I specifically mentioned there that we were going into a and many more. We had a big political cycle in all of Latin America. If you remember at that time we were about to have elections in Chile, Bolivia, Colombia, Peru. We basically decided to take a conservative stance and we were explicit about it. We did mention then that we would come back after that cycle with a revised number which is what we're doing right now. When you look, and I was just explaining the drivers, the ecosystem we've built, our ability, the principality we've built, our ability to better serve all these clients, it makes us confident that we can achieve a higher ROE than the around 19 and a half. Even, I mean, just to give you an example, even this year, if there was no El Nino, we would have outperformed clearly that 19 and a half and probably would have been above the 20% mark. So our ability to generate returns today is higher than the number we gave on a stable situation. I mean, taking away specific things like El Niño. So we thought it was the right thing to basically give a more realistic number on what we can achieve in the coming years.
Gianfranco Ferrari
Chief Credit Officer
Carlos, you hit right on the spot. We also are a less leveraged company Thank you so much and good luck.
spk05
Thank you.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Again, if you have a question, please press star then 1. The next question will come from Yuri Fernandez with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
spk09
Hey, can you hear me? Hi, Gianfranco, Milagros, Cesar, Alejandro, everybody. And congrats also on the quarter. Pretty good 20% are we despite the additional provisions. I have a curiosity about the quarter here on other income, especially the non-core income. It moved up a lot this quarter, some 40% quarter over quarter. So if you can explain what drove it. I guess on your comments in the note, you mentioned FX. Maybe Securities Market to Market. So what drove this? Is this client activity? Should this be more recurring or should we see a normalization of this other income line?
Alejandro Perez-Reyes
Chief Financial Officer
Thank you. Yes, sure. Hi Yuri. So basically I would say it comes from a lot of different sources as we increment this principality we've been talking about there's more I mentioned FX as a driver also, which has been growing for the last few years. It had a very good return due to the volatility related to elections, but we still believe it can continue to have very strong results going forward. Move further down with our strategy to increase principality we are getting a larger share of fees in the market and we expected that to continue and that's why we I mentioned earlier when I was giving the guidance we're talking about high teams or mid to high teams expected growth there and we believe that should continue going forward.
spk09
No super clear and if I made a second one here guys Just on cost and efficiency, could we see for the 2022 ROE cost-to-income being much better? Because I know today expenses and revenues, they are growing somewhat at the similar pace, but you are accelerating on growth. You are pretty confident with risk-adjusted margins. I know you have your new initiatives, 350 bps guidance for cost-to-income headwind. But I don't know, could we start to see expenses slowing down and maybe, you know, Efficiency become a powerful tailwind for you? Thank you.
Alejandro Perez-Reyes
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, the short answer is yes. These numbers haven't changed. When we were in October of last year, we talked about the mid-term cost to income closer to 40%. We are expecting to go in that direction. Our view of the market takes us in that direction. Our innovation scale, Gianfranco just mentioned, today the innovation portfolio is positive in ROE. But it has around 300 basis points of drag on cost-to-income. That is going to change as YAPE keeps scaling and goes from its current cost-to-income, which is higher than BTP, and going below those numbers, more kind of like large neobanks. All in all, what we see going forward is an improvement in the operating leverage. So, basically, income going much faster than expenses and going to the around 40% cost to income in the mid-term.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Okay. Perfect. Thank you very much. The next question will come from Juliana O'Hara with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
spk07
Hi, hi everyone. Thank you for taking my question and congratulations on your results. I just have a quick follow up on a comment you made earlier. I think you mentioned you're adjusting your portfolios based on what you're seeing for El Nino. I just wanted to know if you could share a bit more color if that would have some mixed impact into NIMH and your asset quality expectations. Thank you.
Cesar Rios
Chief Risk Officer
Yes, thank you. The change is actually in the origination mix in a specific area. So, we continue improving in general, but identifying areas that are going to be more severely impacted with the profile of the client, we adjust lowering the risk appetite temporarily in this segment. So, temporarily we are going to have, let's say, a less pronounced change in the mix of the portfolio. but the general trend continues.
Alejandro Perez-Reyes
Chief Financial Officer
Maybe I'll just add a little thing. As I mentioned in the guidance, we are expecting this year to have around 12% loan growth. So again, it's going to be a very strong year where we might see a little bit of a lower loan growth in 2027 when all the things that Cesar is mentioning would take place. Again, the main effects of El Niño are expected to be in 2027 and that could mean and probably a little bit of a lower rate of growth in loans.
spk07
Okay, thank you.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
The next question will come from Andres Soto with Santander. Please go ahead.
spk14
Good morning, everybody. Thank you for the presentation. I have two questions. The first one is a follow-up on the El Niño provisions. We'll do a new assessment by the end of the quarter, beginning of the fourth one. But I would like to understand from your guidance for the full year, how much of additional provisions are you already considering for El Niño? Is it going to be similar to this quarter, which added 30 bps to the cost of rates? Is it going to be higher, lower? Any color there will be helpful.
Alejandro Perez-Reyes
Chief Financial Officer
Hi, Andres. This is Alejandro. The main color I'll give is that What we're expecting is to remain within guidance even with a severe El Niño case. So, I mean, we still don't know how far it's going to get, but given the dynamics we've seen this year where we were coming on the lower end of the guidance, what will probably happen is that we'll move towards the middle to higher end of the guidance, but stay within guidance even with the full provisioning of a severe El Niño.
spk14
Okay, that helps. My second question is on JAPE lending. We saw a significant acceleration this quarter. I would like to understand this acceleration is coming from increasing the balances for your existing customers as you extend duration or is it coming from new customers or is already reflecting the lending initiatives with SMEs within JAPE?
Gianfranco Ferrari
Chief Credit Officer
Yes, Francesca?
Francesca Raffo
Chief Innovation Officer
Yes, hi, Andre. So, it's actually coming from both. As you have heard us, we start YAPE with a mono quota, a mono installment, and then once we know your behavior, we go into a multi-installment. We do this for SME and for individuals. The growth is today primarily in individuals just because the SME is a little farther behind. We started later. So we're seeing growth on both sides. And what we are seeing as well is recurrence in customers, so repayments and a secondary loan, a third loan. and we are seeing ticket growth and also term growth. Those contribute both on the loan portfolio size and of course on the NIM. So this is still gradual, this is very slow, but this is what we're seeing on both segments.
spk14
Thank you so much, Francesca. At some point you mentioned what the potential number of customers that you could reach via lending. Do we have any update to that number based on the performance that you have achieved over the past few quarters?
Francesca Raffo
Chief Innovation Officer
Yes, so YAPE, as you know, has a base of over 16 million. You've heard that credit penetration in Peru is still low. We have today reached over 5 million customers through a loan. and the portfolio is around, I would say we disbursed around 2 million loans. So the growth rate here is important. We don't have a set target in terms of like 50% of IAPE customers should have a loan or anything like that. But of course we feel because of the product and the type of customer we serve, this is going to be a large scale in terms of loans. Thank you so much and congratulations everybody on the results. The next question will come from Alvaro Galicia, private investor. Please go ahead.
spk08
Thank you for taking my question. Well, you've just upgraded your medium term ROE target to an impressive 22% driven by structural improvements and detailed monetization. However, you also mentioned that the strongest impact of El Niño will likely materialize in Q1 2027 and a severe scenario could pressure long growth and fee income. Realistically, how much of that 22% of ROE guidance is at risk if El Niño shifts from a manageable shock to a severe even later this year? And what is the specific cost of risk threshold that would force you to walk back in this new profitability target?
Alejandro Perez-Reyes
Chief Financial Officer
Hi, this is Alejandro. So when we talk about the midterm ROE, we're talking an ROE for the next two to three years, and we believe it is completely at yield, as I was mentioning. We are not necessarily expressing a specific guidance for 2027, which would, of course, be impacted by a severe El Niño and could potentially, 2027, we could guide for a lower ROE than the 22%. Again, we're not saying anything about that as of now. But it doesn't change our expectation of achieving this 22% midterm ROE at all. It would just have a shorter-term impact. The same with long-growth. We're expecting that will be long-growth for the coming years. It's not necessarily going to be the case in 2027, depending on how severe El Niño happens to be.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
The next question will come from Alonso Aramburu with BTG. Please go ahead.
Cesar Rios
Chief Risk Officer
Yes, hi, good morning. Thank you for the call.
Alejandro Perez-Reyes
Chief Financial Officer
Just following up on a little bit on El Niño as well, how are you thinking about dividends, potential extraordinary dividends for the second half of the year?
Cesar Rios
Chief Risk Officer
And maybe if I can ask about El Niño on a separate, on a different way, if it's a severe El Niño,
Alejandro Perez-Reyes
Chief Financial Officer
What's the amount of provisions that you think you will have to book this year?
Cesar Rios
Chief Risk Officer
Is it 500 million soles? Is it a billion soles? Maybe if you can provide a figure for that. Thank you.
Gianfranco Ferrari
Chief Credit Officer
Alejandro, can you take a second part and we'll talk about billions?
Alejandro Perez-Reyes
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. You mean the total provision? Yeah. So, again, we are not providing a number because, as was mentioned earlier, this is information that goes into our models and comes out with a certain... that we will include and we'll give more color as we put more provisions into the numbers. But again, as I mentioned, we are expecting to remain in guidance even in the case of Pasevir El Niño from what we see today. So again, without giving a number, just To give you some color, imagine us going up to the upper side of our guidance and that should give you a sense of what could end up happening, but it's going to depend on the information that keeps coming in the coming weeks and months.
Gianfranco Ferrari
Chief Credit Officer
And maybe on the dividend question, we believe that we are very well capitalized, so the potential provisions or additional provisions because of our very strong El Nino shouldn't affect It appears there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Gianfranco Ferrari, Chief Executive Officer, for closing remarks. Thank you. As we close today's discussion, I want to come back to the main message I shared at the beginning of the call. We have greater confidence in Peru's medium-term outlook, and Credit Corp is well positioned to capture the opportunities ahead. The results we discussed today, together with the updated medium-term ROE expectations we shared, reflect not only a more constructive operating environment, but also the structural progress we've made across our ecosystem. CREACorp today has a deeper customer relationship, stronger digital capabilities, disciplined risk management, and a more scalable business model. Importantly, our growth remains anchored in our purpose, improving lives by helping people and business thrive. That purpose guides how we invest, expand financial inclusion, and support our customers and communities through changing conditions. We believe in Peru, and we believe CREI Corp has an important role in shaping its future. Every day, we have the privilege of helping millions of people and businesses move forward, and there is no greater opportunity than that. Before closing, I want to thank Alejandro for his partnership and leadership as CFO. I look forward to continuing to work closely with him in his new role I also want to welcome Ignacio who will join us as CFO and will be with us on next quarter's call. Thank you all for joining us today.