BMA Banco Macro S.A.

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Banco Macro S.A. Q2 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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Nicolas Torres
Investor Relations, Banco Macro
Good morning and welcome to Banco Macro's second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Thank you all for joining us today. Banco Macro's second quarter earnings release was distributed yesterday and it's available on our investor-related website. For this quarter's call, we are also introducing an earnings call presentation which will be accompanied today's remark. The presentation will be available on our website following the call. Please note that this call may include forward-looking statements, and please refer to our SEC filings for further information. All figures discussed today are in our certain cases and have been restated in terms of the measuring unit current at the end of the reporting period, in accordance with central market regulations. With that, let me briefly introduce today's speakers. We have with us today Juan Parma, Chief Executive Officer of Banco Macro, Jorge Scarinci, Chief Financial Officer of Banco Macro, and myself, Nicolas Torres, Investor Relations from Banco Macro. I will now briefly comment on the second quarter 2026 macroeconomic context before moving on to the bank's second quarter 2026 financial performance. Economic activity moderated after the first quarter, with April and May economic activity averaging 0.8% below the first quarter of 2026. Agriculture and mining offset weakness in manufacturing and commerce. Inflation declined throughout the quarter, from 2.6% in April to 1.9% in June. On breaks, tomorrow declined from 26.3% at the end of March to 22.7% at the end of June. On the exchange rate, the pressure depreciated 7.3% during the quarter, remaining stable throughout April and May, before weakening in June. On credit, growth remained muted. Finally, systematic quality remained under pressure. System NPLs increased from 7.7% in March to 7.7% in May, which is the latest available data. with household adequacy at 12.8% versus 3.5% for corporates, while corporates declined from 19.1% to 86.3%. Turning to our main figures, starting on the left, second quarter net income totaled 206.8 billion pesos, increasing 39% quarter-on-quarter and 4% year-on-year. The improvement was mainly driven by higher results from financial instruments at fair value through P&L Lower loan loss provisions and a smaller loss from the net monetary position. Net operating income before administrative expenses reached 1.29 trillion pesos, down 2% quarter-on-quarter and up 1% year-on-year. Operating income after administrative expenses was 603.8 billion pesos, down 1% quarter-on-quarter and up 1% year-on-year. Moving to the left-hand side, adjusted net income reached 221 billion pesos, inclined and adjusted annualized ROE of 14.3%. This excludes 14.2 billion pesos in after-tax restructuring expenses, in line with the restructuring impact that we saw in the first war. On efficiency, our efficiency ratio was 33.9%, stable year-on-year, as we continue to execute on the bank's efficiency platformation. Finally, our reported NPL ratio was 6.25% as of June 2026. This remained below the 7.7% report for the season as of May 2026. While our coverage ratio stood at 95.4% above the market's 86.3% of May. For moving on to the detailed financial performance, let's review the main highlights of the quarter. First, reverse double-digit net income growth, with net income up 39% quarter-on-quarter to 206.8 billion pesos. This result represents an annual ROE of 13.4%, while adjusted ROE is still at 14.3%, up 4.4 percentage points from the last quarter. Second, margins remain stable, net interest income remains stable, while deposits continue to represent 76% of liabilities, as the average cost of interest per annum is below 20%. Third, we continue executing on efficiency, including another 18 branch closures during the quarter. The asset tax and settlement charges remain almost unchanged quarter over quarter at 14 billion pesos. Fourth, asset quality continued to outperform the system, with NPLs at 6.25% below the system's 7.7%, and moreover, coverage stood at 95.4% above the system's 86.3%. Fifth, lending growth remained challenging. Total lending increased 3% quarter-on-quarter, supported by commercial growth, while on a yearly basis, total financing decreased 5%. Our private sector loan market share remained stable at 8.2%. And sixth, our balance sheets who remain strong, with a Tier 1 ratio of 28% and adequate liquidity, both fundamental for percentage growth and strategic opportunities. Now, let's turn to the quarter-to-quarter P&L variations breakdown. Net income increased 57 billion pesos quarter-to-quarter due to higher income from government securities for value of profit or loss, lower low-nose provisions, and lower loss from the net monetary position. Net Interest Income decreased 1% of 7.4 billion pesos per quarter, as lower funding costs mostly offset lower loan yields and average lending volumes. Income from securities decreased 18% of 30.5 billion pesos per quarter, In the first quarter of 2026, 71 billion pesos one-off result from the sale of palms was recorded. Net income decreased 2% of 4.6 billion pesos in the quarter as high amounts of funds and securities fees were offset by lower credit and debit card fees as well as lower covered services fees. Loan loss provisions decreased 24% or 60.7 billion pesos in the quarter, mainly reflecting lower commercial delinquency while keeping coverage at an adequate level. Personal and administrative expenses increased 26.6 billion pesos, led by personal and marketing and publicity costs, while achieving extraordinary efficiency. The other major positive driver of the quarter was the result from the net monetary position. The loss was 102.1 billion pesos smaller than the first quarter, reflecting the decline in quarterly inflation. Finally, income tax and other items contributed 7 billion pesos to the quarter-on-quarter valuations. and other operating expenses more than offset the higher income tax rate registered in the quarter. Altogether, these factors explain the increase in reported ROE from 10% in the first quarter to 13.4% in the second quarter. Slide 8 shows the impact of the reserving program on reported profitability. Reporting net income was $206.8 billion. Thank you very much. Moving to our second quarter 2026 assets and liabilities performance, you can see the evolution of our balance sheet mix and pricing of both assets and liabilities. On the asset side, LOMOS increased 3% at quarter end and represents 45% of total assets, while government securities make up 25% of our assets. Assets yielded a decline of 208 basis points quarter on quarter, from 44% to 41% in the second quarter, reflecting a 327 basis points decline in the average lending rate, while the average volume of dollars decreased 3%. On the liability side, deposits continued to represent 76% of dollar assets, 300 deposits reached 14.7 trillion pesos, down 1% quarter-on-quarter and up 4% year-on-year. Funding costs declined 550 basis points quarter-on-quarter from 24% to 19% due to a 310 basis points decline in the average rate paid on deposits while the average volume of deposits decreased 3%. Funding costs declined faster than the asset yield, driven by lower private sector pressure deposit rates. Turning to slide 10, the gross credit portfolio shown on the left received growth until 12.6 trillion pesos, moving from 3% to 1.4%. Commercial lending was the main driver of the increase, while consumer lending grew more moderately and represented 71% of the gross portfolio at quarter end. compared with 29% for commercial loans. Loans and other financing reached 11.7 trillion pesos with private sector financing up 3% for one quarter, including 2% growth in personal lending and 1% growth in U.S. dollar lending, while our private sector loan market share remains stable at 8.2%. On the right-hand side, net interest income reached 1.03 trillion pesos, stable compared with the first quarter and 11% above the second quarter of last year. Net interest margin, including FX, declined from 25% to 24%, mainly due to a lower FX contribution. Excluding FX, net interest margin increased 30 basis points from 23.8% in the first quarter to 23.5% in the second quarter. Moving on to asset quality, the left-hand chart shows our reported NPR ratio, increasing from 5.4% in the first quarter of 2026 to 6.25% in the second quarter. As we explained last quarter, the reported NPR ratio is affected by mandatory customer representation that takes into account a customer's behavior across the financial system. Our Stage 3 loans ratio increased 30 basis points from 3.8% to 4.1%. Our coverage ratio stood at 95.4%, just remaining above the 86.3% level for the system as of May 2026. It is important to mention that coverage of Stage 3 loans reached 148.8% in the second quarter. The right-hand chart shows the different trend by segments. Commercial NPLs improved to 0.9% from 1.3% in the first quarter and remained well below the system's average of 3.5%. Consumer NPLs increased to 8.4% from 6.9% in the last quarter, but also remained below the 12.8% reported from the system. Turning to the efficiency, operating expenses shown on the left, which forecast The chart on the right shows the continuous streamlining of our operating model. We ended the quarter with 402 branches, 18 fewer than in March, and 89 fewer than one year ago. and the client to 8,180 employees, down 1% one-on-quarter and 8% year-on-year. These actions are part of the reserving problem with the objective of increasing efficiency and agility by preserving the reach and service capabilities of our franchise. Slide 13 shows the capital and liquidity remaining key strengths. On the left, our Tier 1 capital ratio stood at 28% compared with an 11.5 regulatory requirement. On the right, the amount of deposit ratio increased to 79% while liquid assets remained equivalent to 74% for our composites. Our capital and liquidity positions, therefore, continue to provide significant capacity to support growth and elevate strategy opportunities. Before opening the call, For questions, I would like to spend a few minutes discussing our long-term transformation.
Juan Martin Parma
Chief Executive Officer, Banco Macro
So I will now let Juan Martin Parma, our CEO, to comment on strategy. Good morning, everyone. Pleased to be here with you. I'm going to cover quickly a couple of slides of our trajectory to 2030, basically the execution of our strategic plan that we presented back in December last year. So as a recap, our purpose is to be the leading bank for a thriving Argentina recognized for excellence in customer service and value proposition with four strategic pillars and four enablers. The four strategic pillars are simplicity, which means providing customers with simple, intuitive, and increasingly digital day-to-day Thank you very much. Thank you very much. More cross-sell with future-looking value propositions. And finally, what has to do with how do we service our customers, which has to do with the application of data, technology, artificial intelligence in our distribution models while keeping the human touch that's digital plus human. And of course, as enablers, take data and AI, Our talent efficiency to fund our investment in strategic areas. We need to reduce our physical structure, our less value adding expenses to fund our investment into the growth areas. And finally, risk management to make our results sustainable into the future. The good thing is that this is our first year of the execution of the five-year plan and it's under execution. We are moving ahead with the transformation of the bank following these four strategic pillars. For example, and this is just an example, this is not taxative. It's just some examples of the things that the bank has deployed across this second quarter of the year. With a pillar of simplicity, for example, we've almost completed the deployment of the new retail banking app with unified digital onboarding processes for retail customers. We've launched extended hours to operate through the weekends for commercial customers. and much more on Primacy. We've launched a first mover loyalty program. We're the first bank using loyalty programs as the ones that airlines or some well-advanced fintechs and digital banks use globally. were the first bank in Argentina to do this. This will help. This will create a platform for us to move at scale customers from non-primary to primary. We are moving also with a relationship pricing facility to be sure that we price each customer according to their profitability potential, their risk, and their loyalty. We are moving ahead Thank you very much. a driver of future fee income growth and we are preparing for the launch of Banco Macro private bank proposition and hiring but also preparing our talent with a cutting edge innovative wealth private banking academy for our people finally on digital plus human another Thank you very much. No other bank is doing this at this scale in Argentina, so this is also giving us a competitive differentiation using and making the use of AI in banking in Argentina real. We continue with the transformation of the physical network. Thank you very much. So this is basically what is going on. There's much more under execution. We expect to continue bringing to the skulls quarter by quarter the progress that we are making on our way to 2030. Of course, there are some variables in the macroeconomic context and the political context that are not in our control. We will continue navigating The situation in this pre-electoral year, but we remain confident of the future of Argentina and that's why we will continue building, doing our job in building the bank of the future for a thriving Argentina. Thank you, Agustin.
Nicolas Torres
Investor Relations, Banco Macro
Thank you, Juan. This concludes our prepared remarks. At this time, we would like to take the questions you may have. Operator, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator
Ok, at this time you are going to open it up for questions and answers. If you would like to ask a question, please press the Q&A button at the bottom of the screen. Or to ask a question audio, click on Raise Hand. We will then receive a request to activate your microphone. One moment please for the first question. Our first question comes from Yuda Fernandes with GP Morgan.
Yuda Fernandes
Analyst at GP Morgan
Hi all, good morning and thank you for the opportunity of asking questions. I have a follow-up on asset quality and thank you for the slide presenting some of the metrics. It is clear that was this model update, right, that drove some, you know, adjustments here. But still there was an ongoing worsening and a drop on your coverage ratio, right? So if you can give us just some more to look on how do you see cost of risk? How do you see NPLs evolving for the second half? And regarding the coverage, if this should be like the minimum, because I know Macro still has a good level when we compare to some peers. But the delta narrow now, right, this quarter. So if you can also give us a message regarding the coverage ratio. Thank you.
Jorge Scarinci
Chief Financial Officer, Banco Macro
This is Jorge Scarinci. Thanks for your question. Yes, in terms of asset quality, I think across the board, the second quarter in the Argentine market was about worth in terms of asset quality iteration in MPLs. Basically, what we saw at some point is that the deterioration on the consumer portfolio continued, maybe at a lower pace than the one that we saw in the first quarter. There were some also pick up in the rhythm of deterioration on the company's portfolio. I would say that in terms of MPLs, and I would put that it is very important to make the difference between our own risk customers and the contagion of our own customers with being non-recurrent in other banks or digital wallets here. This is very important to highlight there the difference between the 4.1 in our always and the 6.3 with the contagious there. Also, we posted similar on coverage ratios, both looking at stage three, the coverage ratio is almost 149%. That is something that we are cautiously looking at. Of course, it's well, well, Looking very healthy. In terms of the 95.4% that is coming down from the 109.8% total coverage compared to the previous quarter, that is something that we were questioning because we were kind of the only bank being above the 100% level before. The rest of the system was going downwards. So we did the same, but always keeping an eye on the stage three Thank you very much. Those are, in terms of NPLs, about talking about the total portfolio, not state three. State three, of course, we are looking to be below 4% by far by the end of 26. And in terms of coverage ratio, Yuri, again, we, for the moment, we are not seeing the total coverage ratio going below 90%. We have to see what's going on in the industry going forward. But that is something that we, that number, we have it as a, not as a barrier, but a kind of a target. But of course, the important one is the state three that for sure is going to continue well above the 100% level by the end of the year.
Yuda Fernandes
Analyst at GP Morgan
No, super, super clear, Jorge. Thank you for the numbers. And if I may, a second one just on growth. I think last week there was a, A measure to flexibilize a little bit again the dollar lending, right? I think there is a cap on 15% of your deposits. I know, Macro, you were already lending in dollars with your own resources. How you see this measure, Jorge? And also the loan outlook, you know, like, should we see an acceleration from here? How are you seeing overall? You know, I guess you're Your former guidance of 15 to 20 on real growth may be a little bit challenging. So I don't know if with this new measure, maybe we can see better dynamism for growth in Argentina. Thank you.
Jorge Scarinci
Chief Financial Officer, Banco Macro
Yes, what we are seeing is something that is related to what Juan Parma commented before. We are... Just in the beginning of the pre-electoral year, and of course, this government has been very precise in making a lot of focus on maintaining inflation under control. What we are seeing is that it has an impact on what we are seeing nowadays in the domestic interest rates that have increased a little bit compared to what happened in the second quarter. So that's why our forecast for loan growth is being reduced to level of around 5% in real terms and maybe slightly downwards. So let's make a range between 2 and 5 in real terms for the whole portfolio. And here we are assuming that the pension loans will grow until the end of the year. in a similar rate than the monthly inflation figure. In terms of the dollar denominated loans, we are also assuming that they will grow at a 2%, 2.5% a month. And also we are assuming that it's going to be a slight devaluation of the peso between June and December of around 12%, 13%. So if you do the math there, You can get to the level of between 2% and 5% real terms that we are talking to. In relation to the new regulation, the new measure that the central bank announced, where banks can lend up to 15% of US dollar deposits to those companies that are not generating US dollars, we think that that is something that will bring some growth to the portfolio. Our next question comes from Juliana O'Hara with Goldman Sachs.
Juliana O'Hara
Analyst at Goldman Sachs
Hi everyone, good morning and thank you for taking my questions. I just have two follow-ups. I think one is on your asset quality. I was wondering if you could share some more color on how your write-offs and your recovery trends are going and how you expect it to trend going forward. and the second one is on loan growth. Next year you have an election year and I think loan growth this year should be a little bit more muted than we expected. So how do you think and if you could share already some broad expectations for loan growth next year would be super great. Thank you.
Jorge Scarinci
Chief Financial Officer, Banco Macro
Juliana, in terms of your first question, write-off policy is when the We do a write-off there. That is something that we have been carrying out this policy for many years and we continue with the same one. Thank you very much. In terms of your second question, honestly, I think it's a bit early to make a guidance for Lombrot for 2027. Honestly, we would like to see how we finish 2026, but also the macroeconomic variables in 2027. For the moment, we are having very preliminary discussions Our next question comes from Ernesto Gabilondo with Bank of America.
Ernesto Gabilondo
Analyst at Bank of America
Thank you. Hi, good morning, Juan, Jorge, and Nicolas. Thanks for the opportunity to ask questions. My first question will be on the political side. We have started to see some kind of surveys or initial polls ahead of the presidential election. I think it's too soon, but we are starting to see them. So can you provide us what are you seeing on your side? How is the business sentiment? How is the consumer confidence ahead of the election? And for my second question is on your earnings expectations and ROE evolution. throughout the rest of the year. You're recurring ROE, the adjusted ROE is already at a double digit. So how should we think about the evolution of this ROE that in the second quarter, the adjusted one was at 14%? How should we think for the second half and for the full year? Thank you.
Juan Martin Parma
Chief Executive Officer, Banco Macro
Maybe I can take the first question on the political side, as you can imagine. Imagine we try to avoid making forward-looking statements or predictions in terms of politics. Having said that, it is clear, as Jorge mentioned, that this is a pre-electoral year and that that, as the election year approaches, unless there is a super clear... Weiner coming through the polls, that creates a bit more chances of volatility. The government has been, the central bank has been preparing for that from a fiscal standpoint, from an FX standpoint, from an FX reserve standpoint, which I think is welcome, preparing for What will likely happen, which is that we will see some more volatility. However, I must say that comparing this pre-electoral year with other pre-electoral years in the past, the good sign is that U.S. dollar deposits remain at record highs, which is a good sense of confidence from the public. But it's what it is. It's a pre-electoral year and we will have some more volatility as usual. But again, that said, we believe that the government is preparing well for that and much better than in previous years.
Jorge Scarinci
Chief Financial Officer, Banco Macro
Thanks, Juan. Ernesto, in terms of ROE, yes, we are... Thank you very much. It will maintain this trend, so that's where we are increasing the ROE or the adjusted ROE target from 8% to area of 12%.
Ernesto Gabilondo
Analyst at Bank of America
Perfect. No, super helpful. Thank you very much, Juan and Jorge.
Jorge Scarinci
Chief Financial Officer, Banco Macro
You're welcome.
Private Investor
Welcome.
Operator
Our next question comes from Brian Flores with Citi.
Brian Flores
Analyst at Citi
Hi, Tim. Good morning. Thank you for the opportunity. I wanted to ask you two things. The first one is looking at your 2030 strategic plans. I just wanted to check which levers should drive the ROE to your midterm target. And first, obviously, if you can disclose it, where do you see the bank in terms of real ROE? And then what could drive it? I'm asking this because, as Jorge was mentioning, it seems that NIMS... Should a structure really come down, right? Maybe to be compensated with higher volumes and you're running at an efficiency ratio that seems historically good for you, but also you will need to be investing into this new, I would say, customer acquisition strategies, right? So just wanted to check in your view what levels of ROE are you looking in a sustainable basis and then what are the key levers that will get you there? And then my second question, It's more of a sentiment one, and maybe this is something that we on the sales side, we're scratching our heads with, and maybe you, obviously you can help us here, maybe we can scratch our heads together, but we're wondering here, you're revising upwards ROE, and I think the industry as a whole is turning around in terms of unit economics. However, valuation seems to be coming down in a very, I would say, sharp way, right? So clearly the market is worried about something. Just wanted to check with you in your view if it could be the level of growth that, as you were mentioning in your own guidance, is coming down and maybe the perspectives have shifted. Or do you think maybe on the political side, as Ernesto was saying, in terms of big uncertainties in 2027 and forward, right? I know it's a tough question, but any insights here? I think it's great. Thank you.
Jorge Scarinci
Chief Financial Officer, Banco Macro
Hi, Brian. Let's start with the last part, with the last question in terms of the ROE and the valuations. Of course, our view from a corporate perspective, we're increasing ROE from the 8% adjusted level that we mentioned before to the area of 12%. And it's pretty clear that the first half was much better than what we had expected. And we think that the trend at some point will be maintained in the coming two quarters. I agree with you that valuations All stock prices, not only for the banking sector, but for the whole Argentine universe are down when you look at on a year-to-day basis. And I think that that is basically of, at some point, not only, let's say, local risk, but at some point, I think that Thank you very much. Safety assets, you are seeing now gold prices are going up. So I think at some point it's not only local. I think that the world's markets are a bit volatile and trying to find the best place to allocate assets. It's related to that according to our view. In terms of the first part of your question, in terms of your 2030 strategy, I will let Juan to comment on that. Yeah, sure.
Juan Martin Parma
Chief Executive Officer, Banco Macro
I would add to the previous comments that Jorge made on valuations, that adding to the global turmoil, it's also the fact, as we mentioned before, that we are navigating a pre-electoral year. So part of... Thank you very much. In terms of the levers to achieve long-term ROE, you're right. If we believe that the central scenario is one where Argentina continues its stabilization process and inflation continues going down and rates continue going down, there will be a trade-off with, on one hand, margins continue compressing, and on the other hand, The financial system expanding where volumes should long-term more than compensate for the reduction in margins. But short-term is the opposite. Typically, margins compressed Thank you very much. to regional averages of 30, 40, 50%. That's the macro context for the industry. In our case, the levers are capturing that growth and above, so growing market share, growing volumes, growing scale, but also moving... Agustin Devoto. Our strategic planning period with 50% and that's a significant driver of profitability, efficiency and market share. The other lever is fee income, which is really important. And as Argentina starts reducing poverty and increasing its middle class and its affluent class, capturing fee revenue from insurance, from wealth management will be crucial. And that's not subject to margin compression. and that's why you saw us talking about development, about insurance, about management, about private banking and everything that we are planting to be prepared to live in harvesting that opportunity. And third lever is efficiency. You mentioned how we will fund our investments in these growth areas while maintaining our Thank you very much. and our FTE and that's what we're using to fund growth initiatives while keeping our efficiency ratio in good levels.
Brian Flores
Analyst at Citi
Super clear, Jorge and Juan. If I may just follow up on the level that you envision in 2030 as the sustainable levels of ROE, do you have a specific target in mind?
Jorge Scarinci
Chief Financial Officer, Banco Macro
Yes, I mean, going forward, and of course, sustainable implies, I mean, with Argentina, Argentina's inflation going into single digits at some point. If we continue like this, we assume that in 2028, Argentina will leave aside the inflation accounting. The ROE reported in 2030 should be nominal, so we are expecting to be in the area of about 20% ROE by 2030.
Brian Flores
Analyst at Citi
Super clear, thank you.
Jorge Scarinci
Chief Financial Officer, Banco Macro
You're welcome.
Operator
Our next question comes from Pedro Lidzak with Itaú BBA.
Pedro Lidzak
Analyst at Itaú BBA
Hello everybody, thank you for the call and taking my question. Thank you for joining us. Pedro, as Juan was commenting before, the idea in terms of branches is
Jorge Scarinci
Chief Financial Officer, Banco Macro
By the end of the year, we should be in the area of 370 houses and employees below 8,000 employees. At the same time, of course, as Juan was also commenting, we are investing in technology in different sectors of the bank in order to modernize systems and technologies. and so on. So I would say that going forward, we are going to see maybe, nominally speaking, maybe similar levels of expenses. In the middle, you will have, of course, a decline in remunerations of employees because we are going to have less employees. We are going to see Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Maru Estrela with Itaú.
Maru Estrela
Analyst at Itaú
Hey guys, good morning. Just one question on margins. We saw this quarter, what we saw is that funding costs actually went down, but all of that was upset by lower asset yields. So, and what we're seeing here, you know, at the beginning of the third quarter is that a little bit more volatility in the local rates. So, I was wondering, I mean, if the evolution of the margins for the rest of the year can be a little bit more challenging, given that, you know, that cost of fund can kind of like reverse at the same time that asset yields, you know, keep down on having the pressure that we saw in the second quarter. So, what's the danger here for the evolution of margins? and for the guidance for that matter.
Jorge Scarinci
Chief Financial Officer, Banco Macro
Hi, Mario. I commented this before. I think that the margins, the net interest margins that we saw in the first half of the year were slightly wider than the one that we had expected. We believe that going forward, this level of margins would be At the beginning of the year, we were expecting to have a net interest margin in the area of 20% as a guidance. Now, after the fair half, I would have to say that we should be above the 20% net interest margin guidance. So, the idea is to relatively maintain the margins in the couple of the next quarters.
Maru Estrela
Analyst at Itaú
That's perfect. And just to confirm what you mentioned about loan growth, the guidance, I believe it was between 15% and 20%. Do you maintain that guidance?
Jorge Scarinci
Chief Financial Officer, Banco Macro
Mario, I mean, that guidance was two quarters ago. Now the new one is between two and five in real terms. I explained the evolution of the peso and dollar laws before.
Maru Estrela
Analyst at Itaú
Yeah, yeah, that was pretty clear. I was trying to confirm that. Okay. Thank you. Thank you so much.
Operator
Welcome. Our next question comes from Camila Azevedo with UBS.
Camila Azevedo
Analyst at UBS
Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. I have two questions from my end, two follow-ups. So first on growth. I just wanted to get your sense on recent performance of the last month and August, starting August. And also, sorry, in the second quarter by economic sector or customer segments. and which would be the main drivers behind growth that you are mainly expected by sector as well. And also, how are you seeing retail demand currently? So in terms of demand, I just wanted, yes, that's another follow up in terms of We are seeing the higher spreads, right? So, given these higher spreads, how are you seeing demand and how should we expect demand to evolve in the second half of this year? Thank you.
Jorge Scarinci
Chief Financial Officer, Banco Macro
Hi, Camila. In terms of growth, what we are seeing or what we will be seeing in the two coming quarters Thank you very much. Thank you very much. I mean, the sectors, what we are seeing demand are the ones that are the winners within this economic model, which are basically mining, oil, gas, agribusiness. We expect to see some pickup maybe in construction in the next couple of quarters. and we assume that massive consumption sectors, automobile are kind of losers within this economic model so we are not seeing big demand coming from them. So that is the idea and within your highlight of the margins, I think that's something to keep an eye on also is that when you look at the net interest margin, we are including Interest rates there, but also income coming from the bond portfolio and on FX. So at some point, if you want to dig in that number, you will see at some point that intermediation rates should narrow a little bit. On the other hand, you will have income from bond and on FX compensating that decline on the intermediation spread. So that's why we are forecasting some stability in the net interest margin.
Camila Azevedo
Analyst at UBS
Yeah, that's super clear. Thank you very much. Welcome.
Operator
Our next question comes from Pedro of Henanen with Latin Securities.
Pedro Henanen
Analyst at Latin Securities
Hello, Juan, Jorge, Nicolas. Thank you for taking the call. I wanted to ask when you look at the MPLs and loan trends, are you seeing any meaningful difference in credit behavior between the interior of the country and the city or province of Buenos Aires, either in terms of credit demand or delinquency trends?
Jorge Scarinci
Chief Financial Officer, Banco Macro
Hi, Pedro. Well, I mean, because our footprint is more in the interior and less exposure in BA, I think that it is important to look at those banks with more presence in BA to see the trend. I think that when you look into our numbers and when you look at our own numbers, That is the stage three. They are behaving much better than what we could be seeing in terms of the VA clients. But I would say that this is not only a geographic reason, but also is because Banco Macro on its own has a more, I would say, let's say cautious, strict approach. Deep insight on the credit policy, so that is also helping, not only the geographic location of the customers.
Pedro Henanen
Analyst at Latin Securities
Okay, thank you, Jorge. You're welcome.
Operator
The next question comes from Federico Cavilli with EdCat.
Federico Cavilli
Analyst at EdCat
Hello everyone, thanks for taking my question. I want to ask regarding your restructuring plan, if we should expect these expenses to continue in the second half of the year and in 2027, and you guided ROEs in 12% for the year, how these expenses will impact ROE and what's your reported ROE guidance for the year?
Jorge Scarinci
Chief Financial Officer, Banco Macro
Hi, Federico. I mean, yes, the restoration will continue, as we were commenting before, in order of closing additional branches and some reduction on FTEs. What we are going to see along 2026, you will see, of course, the impact on those costs of layoffs, and of course in 2027 we are going to see all the savings on this less FTE number and lower number of branches. The adjusted ROE that we forecast of 12% area that we were commenting, I would say that the reported ROE should be ranging The next question comes from Tito Labarta with Goldman Sachs.
Tito Labarta
Analyst at Goldman Sachs
Hi, good morning. Jorge, Juan, and Nicolas, thanks for the call. Thank you. My question, just to follow up a little bit, just to understand, how do you see the health of the consumer, right? Because I mean, we're still seeing like NPLs rising, like there's like a bit of a recovery, but unemployment is still somewhat high. Just like on the capacity for consumers to repay these loans, are you just writing off these loans? Are you able to work with some of these consumers? Just to think about your ability to accelerate consumer loan growth, maybe going into next year, just given where the economy is and where the health of the consumer is. Any comment on that would be very helpful. Thank you.
Jorge Scarinci
Chief Financial Officer, Banco Macro
Daniel, how are you? I think that the consumption sentiment for the moment is a bit sluggish. We think that going forward, if we see inflation cooling down, that will be the main driver to see the real wages recovery. And at some point, we could see 2027 some recovery on consumption demand. For the rest of the year, again, we are seeing these loans maybe growing in similar levels than inflation. We are not seeing that pick up in 2026, at least on these consumer loans.
Juan Martin Parma
Chief Executive Officer, Banco Macro
The only thing that I would add, Jorge, is, and it's under your question, is that Even in this context, until real wages start to improve and lending capacity from consumers starts to increase, what we are doing internally is recycling and many more if you wish restrictive scenario for consumers. For personal loans, for example, 50% of the portfolio is already originated from vintages from around May last year forward, which is when we introduced the first restrictions in our credit policy and became more stringent. So my point is the improvement in NPLs at this point not only depends on the external macroeconomic conditions to improve but also depends on our own actions and that's why we are confident as Jorge explained before that we are stabilizing the MPLs when we see the month-by-month performance from May to June and already June to July and that will continue going forward because we already are seeing these new vintages with much better quality starting to impact the books and that is The next question comes from Lisandro Loveras with 1618.
Operator
Sir, you can open a microphone.
Private Investor
Yes, can you hear me? Yes, yes. Okay, congratulations on the results. We saw a 1% decrease in deposits and a sharply lowering loan guidance. So, can you provide a print regarding deposit guidance for the full year? Is it updated? Thanks.
Jorge Scarinci
Chief Financial Officer, Banco Macro
Alessandro? Yes, I think we are also reducing a little bit the deposit growth for the year to put it in the 10% real area. Basically, again, we are seeing maybe peso deposits not growing at a similar level than inflation. On the other hand, we are seeing dollar deposits maybe moving upwards slightly above the rhythm of the peso-denominated deposits.
Private Investor
Okay, perfect. Thanks. You're welcome.
Operator
The next question comes from Ignacio Znihovski with Investir in Bolsa.
Ignacio Znihovski
Analyst at Investir en Bolsa
Hi, good evening. Thank you for taking my questions. The first question is regarding Stage 3 loans, asset quality in particular. Do you have some kind of system-wide figures to compare that 4.1 that you reported in the second quarter? And the next question is regarding the excess capital and this probably... Thank you very much. Hi, Ignacio. How are you? We do not have many comparisons on the stage three in the system. We are trying to
Jorge Scarinci
Chief Financial Officer, Banco Macro
To find out all the data that we can use to compare our 4.1, we assume that we are on the top banks on this ratio. But honestly, we don't have a market comparison for the stage 3. In terms of your second question, yeah, I mean, the excess capital that we have, this is something that we constantly mention that is going to be used not only for M&A, but also for organic growth. In terms of M&A, we are always looking at the markets and there are always opportunities. Of course, not all those opportunities are suitable for Banco Macro's growth and return appetite. We analyze all what we can. The idea is to continue Thank you very much.
Operator
Carlos Gomez, HSBC Could you explain the reasons for the increase in risk-weighted assets in the quarter, in particular in operational risks? Is your methodology now different from those of the other banks? And under the new models, what is the level of capital you consider adequate and how much surplus that you can invest or return to shareholders? And the other question from him is How much longer do you expect to continue your restructuring program? Is your footprint 400 basis now adequate? Thank you.
Jorge Scarinci
Chief Financial Officer, Banco Macro
In terms of the first question, there was a new methodology that we implemented in terms of operational risk that basically impacted on the level of the excess capital, even though that the 28% ratio of Tier 1 is the highest among Argentine banks. 2.7 billion dollars of excess capital is very wide and the idea is to make the best use of that excess capital going forward. In terms of the second question, I mean we should be going slightly below the 400 branches as I mentioned before in the area of 370 by the end of 2026.
Operator
Next question comes from Agustina Isidro with PBVA AM. Which is the loans book breakdown in terms of interest rates fixed versus floating and materially?
Jorge Scarinci
Chief Financial Officer, Banco Macro
Yes, Agustina, you will have all that information in the balance sheet that we published yesterday. To the CMV and the stock exchange, there is a very detailed breakdown on all that information.
Operator
The next question comes from Arthur Barners with Dell Tech. Do you sense the Argentines feeling more comfortable holding pesos?
Jorge Scarinci
Chief Financial Officer, Banco Macro
I mean, for the moment, I think that... Pesos are being used for transactional purposes. U.S. dollars are used for savings. And, of course, if we continue in this trend of reducing the inflation of the country and, of course, maintaining fiscal surplus, working on institutionality and more developed growth measures, Little by little, Argentines are going to incline and hold more pesos. That is what we are seeing for the moment.
Operator
The next question comes from a private investor called Stefan Swinger. How do you see the further development of your commercial leading as you show some pickup in the current quarter? Also, if you may, do you plan to deploy some capital for share buy banks? As the share price has suffered lately and is getting close to a level where there were some buy banks in last October. Thanks.
Jorge Scarinci
Chief Financial Officer, Banco Macro
Well, according to the first part of your question, yes, as I mentioned or we mentioned before, we are seeing the commercial portfolio performing slightly better than the consumer portfolio for They come in two quarters. And in terms of the second part of the question, I mean, always buy-share programs are on the table. It's something that the board of directors analyze depending on market conditions, but that is something that we have used in the past. And again, it's always on the table. It's the board of directors' Decision where to implement it.
Operator
The next question comes from Adriano Mariani with Sigal Capital LLP. Olá Jorge, can you touch quickly on the capital consumption during the quarter? Obviously 28% is still very high, but interesting how that feels so much with lackluster growth even after dividends impact.
Jorge Scarinci
Chief Financial Officer, Banco Macro
Yes, hi Augusto. I mean, we explained that the consumption was because we implemented a new methodology in terms of operating operational risk and that slightly impact on the ratio that was on from 32% to 28%. But again, it is the highest among Argentine banks. The excess capital is the widest. There are no more questions at this time. This concludes the questions and answers section. I will now turn over to Mr. Nicolas Torres for final considerations.
Nicolas Torres
Investor Relations, Banco Macro
Thank you, Juan, Jorge, and thank you all for your interest in Banco Macro and for joining us today. We appreciate your time and your questions. We look forward to speaking with you again. Have a good day.
Operator
This concludes today's presentation. You may now disconnect.