E Eni S.p.A.

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Eni S.p.A. Q2 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Wednesday, July 29, 2026

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Claudio Descalzi
Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, good morning, good afternoon for being with us today. Our second quarter and first half result clearly reflect our successful execution of the strategy and the objectives we have consistently communicated. In Q2, Eni generated 5.4 billion euro pro forma EBIT and 2.3 billion euro net income, both doubling year on year, and 4.5 billion euro of cash flow from operation, up over 60%. This growth significantly outpaced the increase in brand prices over the same period, demonstrating the strength of our operating leverage and our ability to absorb a highly unfavorable foreign exchange environment. Looking at the first half of the year, we delivered a remarkable 40% year-on-year increase in performer EBIT. Reported gearing remained stable quarter-on-quarter, while performer gearing declined to 10%, reaching the lower end of our target range. Overall, this performance reflects excellent operational execution, effective capture of market opportunities and the continued delivery of our consistent strategy. The first half of 2026, marked by the emergence of a new crisis in the Gulf, has once again exposed our industry to extraordinary volatility. Yet any has demonstrated his ability to effectively mitigate external pressures. Our resilience is underpinned by a broad geographic diversification, strong operational efficiency, and the deployment of proprietary technologies. At the same time, our robust organic growth continues to be fueled by our outstanding exploration success and a deep pipeline of developing opportunities. Most importantly, our growth is increasingly multidimensional. While exploration and production remains our highly competitive core business, we are rapidly scanning attractive growth platforms right across the energy value chain. Specifically, I would like to highlight three key pillars of our strategy. First, diversification. We are well diversified across geographies, businesses and technologies. While some of our operations have been affected by events in the Middle East, the overall impact has not been material. Actions taken in 2026 have further strengthened this diversification, increasing our exposure to Asia and South America. Expanding our transition-related businesses and opening new opportunities in trading activities, critical minerals and stationary batteries. Second, growth. We continue to deliver a unique double engine of growth, combining industry-leading organic upstream production with a rapid parallel expansion in low-carbon energy. Third, Financial performance. We continue to generate outstanding financial results, with over 60% of our original planned targets already met year-to-date, also thanks to the past time to market of our projects. Our satellite model, increasingly acknowledged as a material positive differentiator for RENI, continues to de-risk the balance sheet attracting third-party capital to fund our expansion across new technologies and geographies. Turning to upstream, we delivered an outstanding 8% year-on-year reported production growth. In the first half of the year, or 11% underlining, we fully offset Middle East volume losses thanks to the efficient execution of major operating projects, including Agogo in Angola, Amoka in Mexico, Congo LNG Phase 2, as well as a strong contribution from Vore Energy. This growth is entirely organic and reflects investment and exploration successes achieved over several years. As discussed during Q1, Our unique 2026 exploration performance has added over 1 billion barrels of new resources, supported by credible development pathways. This success is driven by key discoveries, including Al-Gaïta 01 in Angola, Muren South 1 in Côte d'Ivoire, two offshore gas discoveries near Bar-e-Salam in Libya, the initial discovery offshore Egypt, and the giant Geliga I gas condensate discovery in Indonesia. We have further refreshed our future pipeline with new acreage positions in Uruguay, Timor-Leste and Gambia. Furthermore, to secure our medium-term production capacity during the plant period, we have sanctioned three major projects. Balen Phase III in Côte d'Ivoire, Genk North in Indonesia and Kronos in Cyprus. Beyond this project, we are reshaping our global footprint through the blue build-up of two diversified regional clusters. In Asia, the Sierra Business Combination, completed in June, created our largest satellite platform to date and established a leading player in the Pacific region. Initial production exceeded expectations, surpassing 300,000 barrels per day and backed by 3 billion barrel reserves upside. It has a clear path to approach 800,000 barrels per day by 2030. In the Americas, we continue to advance significant opportunities in Argentina and Venezuela, which, together with our existing position in Mexico and the United States, represent an increasingly important component of our upstream portfolio. In detail, In Venezuela, we are finalizing a negotiation for new contracts for CUNIN5 and CoroCoro. Simultaneously, we have finalized a gas export agreement for the giant Perla Field. Collectively, our footprint in Venezuela unlocks an outstanding gross potential of more than 5.5 billion barrels of recoverable resources. Meanwhile, in Argentina, our newly consolidated assets The new material initiatives in Argentina, Venezuela, East Asia, together with our African portfolio, provide Thank you very much. and strategic moves like our recently announced Mercurio joint venture, this volume growth will translate directly into cash flow, underpinning our primary target, growing our upstream free cash flow per barrel by more than 50% by 2030. Our Q2 results show demonstrate any's ability both to capture favorable market conditions and to enhance underlying profitability. EMP delivered outstanding production growth and successfully captured the benefits of the market environment, with particularly strong contributions from Norway and Congo. GGP generated pro forma EBIT over €0.47 billion, confirming better than expected performance and supporting a further increase in our EBIT guidance to over €1.4 billion. We also see additional upside potential in the second half, supported by current pricing conditions and inventory replenishment dynamics. Plenitude and Alien Eye together generated €607 million of pro forma EBITDA in the quarter and €1.13 billion in the first half, supporting an increase in full-year guidance to €2.6 billion, compared with the original €2.4 billion. With the interest formation of businesses, refineries, utilizations, recovered following the major turnaround activities completed during the first half. Mercedes also continued to reduce losses in line with the improvement plan, also supported by better market conditions. Contributions from associates benefited from support in macroeconomic conditions and the consolidation of Seara from June onwards. The first half The tax rate of approximately 39% was below our full-year guidance, reflecting the impact of high-grading upstream production, the accounting impact of satellites, the transition toward a more sustainable, diversified overall income mix, and the benefit of our restructuring and performance improvement initiatives. Cash flow from operations remained strong, supported by dividend contributions from associates and continued working capital improvement. Operational working capital generated a positive contribution in the quarter and we continue to expect an overall reduction throughout 2026. Capital expenditure amounted to 1.8 billion euro in Q2 and we continue to expect approximately 7 billion euro of gross capex for the full year while we also reduce the net figure to below 5 billion euro. We paid the fourth and final quarterly dividend related to 2025 and repurchased 600 million euro of shares since 2021. 21 outstanding shares have been In light of the raised guidance for CFA4 to 15 billion euro, we now expect to repurchase 3.4 billion euro of shares in the 2026 program, representing a combined yield to our investors of around 10%. Performa gearing at quarter end remain at 10%, the lower end of our target range, and we expect reporter gearing to converge toward that level by year end. In conclusion, the combination of our upstream positioning and growth outlook, our integration across the entire energy value chain, the increasing value creation from our transition businesses, and our strong financial foundations position us competitively in a world that has entered a new energy paradigm. It is confirmed by the revised guidance for most of our businesses that translate into an increased distribution. Underlying oil and gas production growth is now seen exceeding 5% above the upper end of the previous range, GGP Proforma EBIT is raised to over 1.4 billion euro, plus 40% compared with the initial level. In Eli Proforma adjusted EBITDA is revised up by 18% at 1.3 billion euro, and at a revised scenario of 85% The new buyback represents 127% increase over the initial guidance of 1.5 billion euro at the budgeted cash flow. The potential special dividend related to oil price above $90 per barrel or Gas price and CERN margin, more than 50% of the original budget's assumptions, will be determined in the last quarter. In this environment, ENI is in one of the strongest positions in its history. That concludes my remarks, and together with my colleagues from ENI management team, I am ready to take your questions. Thank you.
Conference Operator
Moderator
Thank you, this is the conference. Operator, please press star and one for your questions and star two to remove yourself from the question queue. I now leave the floor to Mr. Jon Rigby for the Q&A session.
Jon Rigby
Head of Investor Relations
Thank you, and thank you everybody for attending. We're going to go through this in polling order again to ask you to keep your questions to two, if that's okay, and we'll aim to finish the call around the top of the hour. We'll start with Alejandro Vigil at Santander. Alex?
Alejandro Vigil
Analyst, Santander
Yes, thank you for taking my questions. The first question is about the guidance about production. Definitely this year looks very strong also with the Seara consolidation. If you can give us some numbers about the outlook of 2030 of production, just to have some indication of the range of potential volumes that year. And the second question is about the European natural gas market. You mentioned that in the guidance for global gas and LNG, you are not including any upside from their current situation. If you can elaborate about how you see the second half of the year. Thank you.
Claudio Descalzi
Chief Executive Officer
Thank you. For production outlook, I think Guido will take over for the question and Where is, where is? Okay. Is there, Cristian, is there for, for, gave you an update on the gas in the second half, as you asked?
Guido
Head of Production
Yeah. So on production, of course, you notice that we have improved our guidance in 2026. Originally, we provided a range of 3% to 4% growth underlying, which now we increased to 5%. And this is coming from a higher contribution from some countries like Italy. Libia, Mexico, Kazakhstan and of course the anticipation of the business combination in Seara. While for the 2030 we have also provided stronger support to our originally provided guidance and you have noticed that we have accelerated some major changes F.I.D. We have included some projects which initially were beyond 2030 and that we have now anticipated to the 2030 plan.
Claudio Descalzi
Chief Executive Officer
So just to give some more color on our production, if we look at all the projects that were in our slide, we have 54 projects. They're coming from our organic growth, so our exploration. It's something that's coming from the exploration we performed in the last 10 years. And most of these projects are really in a very advanced... Some we talk the FID, some are really in execution, but most of them are with the POD done. So that is going to give that 4%, Guido said, by 2030... and is going to confirm a solid growth also after 2030.
Cristian
Head of Gas Marketing
So, when it comes to the gas market scenario for the second half, I would say our scenario is currently in line with the forward curves, as you can see. But I think we can say that the situation is fairly fragile, given the geopolitical situation and the delay in the replenishment of the European storage. So, We think that, depending clearly on the evolution of the situation, we can see upside potential in terms of volatility and flat price numbers when it comes to the second half. And I think the idea is that we are ready, clearly with our assets, to take advantage of that situation.
Alejandro Vigil
Analyst, Santander
That's it.
Jon Rigby
Head of Investor Relations
Thanks, Alex. We're going to now move on to Biraj Bakhtari at RBC. Biraj, are you there?
Biraj Bakhtari
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets
The first was just on Venezuela, which you touched on in your initial remarks. There were some reports recently that the government had presented new terms to the industry. I'm just wondering if you thought those were sufficient to drive investment beyond 2027 and 2028 and more on the oil side than the gas side. And then the second question is just on refining. The strength in the downstream has been a big theme this quarter. I know you don't have a huge amount of exposure to this, but I just noticed your indicator was down quarter on quarter. I guess we're looking at the cracks on the screen, which are very strong. Could you just help me understand why you're not able to take advantage of that and how we should think about that going to the second half? Thank you.
Claudio Descalzi
Chief Executive Officer
So, Venezuela, now maybe Guido can complement what I'm going to say. Venezuela, we are in negotiation. Very, very open, clear and transparent, very good negotiation. We are discussing very well with the minister, with Pedro Veza, clearly also with our American partners and, you know, we have big potential, as we said. We have one of the best blocs, we have a We have a CoroCoro, we have Perla for which we already signed a contract. That has been very, very, very quick. A couple of months ago we signed a contract for export. That is very good because it's going to complement our domestic production and that gives even more breadth and more space for future investments. You know, we already developed... Thank you very much. The history of this country is not that we forgot what we had been in the past. So we are prudent, but I think that what happened until now is encouraging us to go ahead with our Venezuelan partner with PDVSA and the minister. Just to talk about CERM, I like that maybe Francesco says something about CERM. and then if there is anything to add for Venezuela or in general for downstream, also Pino can add something and Stefano Ballista if there is something for the biofuel refineries.
Francesco Gattegno
Chief Financial Officer
Yes, about our benchmark refining margin, clearly this benchmark is a nominal value that is representing a status, that is a normalized status of the market. So it takes into account the crudes that are generally imported in our refineries, taking into account the freight costs that are normally assumed for this transportation and for these logistic events. The situation that we faced since March are completely, let's say, out of norm. So the CERM that you can read on a just generic way is not the actual margin that we are able to capture because there are some factors of discount, mainly higher freight costs, higher logistic costs, differential of crudes that are not matching the original crudes that were included in the formula. Thank you very much. In general, you have to consider that what you read as an average on a nominal term to be converted in our actual figure will be with a discount of $2-$3 per barrel.
Pino Di Pietro
Head of Refining
Okay, it's very clear. The fundamental is, in any case, that we have completed all the turnaround in the first and some queue in the second quarter, and so we are very able to maintain the maximum capacity in the third queue, and that means with this current margin a lot of results.
Guido
Head of Production
Thank you. If I may, I'd like to complement with some operational information. On the gas business... Venezuela, of course. On the gas business, as you know, in March we have signed a sustainability agreement on Cardone 4, and PDVSA is honoring this agreement, so it's providing cargo to pay the current gas invoices. On the other hand, we are preparing a plan of development for Perla to export gas, and the filing of this POD is imminent. On the oil business, as Claudio said, we are at the very final stage of the negotiation and we have also prepared ourselves and we are ready to mobilize as soon as we sign this contract, rigs, to exploit the resources there and make use of the spare capacity that the facilities in Venezuela have to increase production, of course.
Jon Rigby
Head of Investor Relations
Thank you all. Thanks, Biraj. We're now going to move to Josh Stone at UBS. Josh. Yeah, thanks, Jon. Good afternoon.
Josh Stone
Analyst, UBS
Two questions, please. Firstly on CapEx, and thanks for the project list on slide six. It's useful. If I understand correctly, you want to develop these new projects without increasing spending. So it sort of brings up the question of which projects are falling off the list. And I noticed in your release there was some Impairment related to slow down a more marginal field. So maybe anything around the sort of which fields are more marginal, which geographies are more marginal to make room for these new projects would be useful. Thanks. And then the second question on chemicals, the losses clearly narrowed this quarter, but you're still losing money. Maybe just talk about the trend of earning, what you're seeing for margins in chemicals and Thank you. So for CapEx,
Claudio Descalzi
Chief Executive Officer
So, it's true, we are growing. Also, we demonstrated in the last couple of years that we are growing without increasing capex. That means that it comes from at least two factors. One, that we are very effective and efficient in developing fields. So, in the last project, I think in the last 10 projects that we I talked about last project, we respect not just the timing but also the budget. So we never exceed our budget. That is a very critical point in the upstream, especially when you develop deep offshore or floating LNG or other stuff that you are able to respect time and budget. Secondly, as you know, we create a different kind of economic model. So Thank you very much. Thank you very much. We never write our margin fee. We farm out through an M&A process that was very successful, through which we got some good income. But I think that's the reason, the two principal reasons is what I said, I told you. So, I don't know if you want to, Guido, to add something, otherwise I... I give the ball, I pass the ball to Adriano to talk about chemicals and chemical trend and how we're going to do. Sure.
Adriano Libutti
Head of Chemicals
Judge, thanks for the question. As you well described in the question, the result in thermochemical is improving quarter over quarter. In the second quarter compared to the same quarter of last year, we have seen a major improvement in the range of three digits, above three digits. We need to make a distinction between what is transformation and what is a scenario. That also, as you ask. In terms of transformation, we are performing in line with what we say to the market, that we expect that on a yearly basis we have in the ballpark of 250 million. And if you see right now the trajectory of the result of the transformation, we are a little above 10% above this target of 250. Right now we estimate more in the range of 280, 300 million. Part is also scenario. We have seen an improvement in the scenario in the second half. You need to consider the net impact of the scenario because you know that we are energy intensive or feedstock intensive. So, of course, whatever you have seen in terms of increase of feedstock energy, of course, is higher cost for us. But we have seen also a shortage in the market, not an increase of demand. This is something that we should ground as a scenario. There is no increase of demand, but there is a shortage of product, because for six, eight weeks, due to the Ormuz closure, we have not seen import from the Middle East. But after eight weeks, we have seen an increase of import of U.S. So whatever product was not coming from the Middle East has been replaced. So we are now back to the starting point. But for sure in the second quarter, we have seen an improvement of the scenario. To the last part of your question, how much is this trajectory going forward? It's based on what we declare to the market. We expect to continue to improve performance due to transformation of the improvement on yearly basis for coming years is a 50% transformation, 50% this new platform, more or less.
Jon Rigby
Head of Investor Relations
Great. Thanks, Adriano. Thanks, Josh. We're now going to move to Alessandro Pozzi at Mediobanca. Alessandro?
Alessandro Pozzi
Analyst, Mediobanca
Thank you for the questions. The first one for Claudio and going back to Production, of course, you have a lot of production coming to 2030, but if you add all the other opportunities that you have in Cyprus, additional upside in Indonesia, Argentina, Venezuela, it looks like the potential for underlying growth is very large, even beyond 2030. And of course, there's always the need for disposal, but putting disposals aside, what could be The potential underlying goals of the portfolio that you have today looking into, let's say, middle of next decade. And the second one kind of follow on on disposals. So can you give us an update on the disposal that you expect in the upstream, maybe Indonesia as well? There's a bit more to be sold there and also on the scope of the agreement with ARES in the upstream. Thank you.
Claudio Descalzi
Chief Executive Officer
Thank you for your question. Clearly, next year we are going to have an update, but what we said now, and I just said, is that the expectation up to 2030 is 4% growth. After 2030, maybe it can be better than that, for sure. I don't think that there is another company that has more than 54 projects for start-ups, radio, organic, with very low costs. So, we're going to see. Clearly, we have to understand, you know, what is the situation. It's very difficult to talk about it, The end of the year with this kind of volatility, with all is happening, and it's hard to talk about 2027, also if we are really solid and we don't have, we don't scare anything, but clearly if we have to talk in five, six, seven years, what is going to happen? I think that we are in a situation where the world needs more energy. That is clear, there is a Energy race among the big champions, the big countries, for different reasons. Demography, clear, but also we talk about hyperscale data center, AI, and the growth rate as the industry and a lot of countries are demonstrating. So we need energy and now we understood that we need oil and gas, that is clear. We are really well placed to give an answer to this call, this big call about oil and gas. I don't think that we've never been so strong. And inside the industry, in terms of number of projects and geographies, because when I talk about 54 new projects, we are talking about at least 13 or 14 different countries. So diversification is a key word, diversification. That means that we don't have all the eggs in the same basket. And each country is very rich in terms of future growth. So I can't tell you we are in a good position. We are in a good position in a world that needs, is really... They need energy, they are hungry for energy, starving for energy, and he is really in a very strong position, never been so strong. Disposal, I think that I give the floor to Francesco to talk about the status of our disposal.
Francesco Gattegno
Chief Financial Officer
Clearly the plan for this year is almost completed. As you mentioned, we are in advanced stage for the last step. That is Indonesia 10% that has already entered the last stage. We have completed a number of deals that are pending the closing. We have done the Nigeria onshore disposal. We are running the increase of capital plenitude with the consequence in terms of balance sheet. We announced this deal related to infrastructure. So there are various activities. For the coming years, we will continue to maximize... Thank you very much. What is the perimeter of the infrastructure deal? The infrastructure deal is a partnership that is working on a generic, it's not a specific... Thank you very much. Thank you very much. Thanks, Alessandro. We're going to move to Ahmed Ben Salim at Odo. Are you there? Yeah, hi. Thank you for taking my question. Hello.
Ahmed Ben Salim
Analyst, ODO
You mentioned the possible extraordinary dividend review in Q3. What would trigger that decision? And if cash flow remains strong, would buyback still be your preferred way of returning excess cash to shell holders? Thank you.
Francesco Gattegno
Chief Financial Officer
We have set the rules for the excess dividend. So the rules are, if we are assuming in a full year the $90 brand scenario, currently we are at $91. So we are in the money for the excess dividend distribution. If we assume the 50% increase of refining margin, $9 is the trigger and we are well above that number. and we assume it is a 50% on the 36 euro megawatt hour that was the budget for TTS and 54 means the 50% increase so we will be above the 54 on average and currently we are probably in the range of 47, 48 so there will be an extra dividend. So if we want to say simulate with the current level of year-to-date price there is an extra dividend. We will see in September how the market will evolve, which are expectations for the end of the year, and clearly how the company has performed in terms of cash generation.
Claudio Descalzi
Chief Executive Officer
Yes, but what we said, just to specify that in October we have to take the decision, we are going to pay the extra dividend, In the fourth quarter, so by December. Just to remember what is going to happen.
Francesco Gattegno
Chief Financial Officer
Yes, and just another element. If we are clearly in that situation where there is an extra dividend, you have to consider there is probably also an extra buyback. Because if we enter in a higher price, there will be a ceiling up to 4 billion, but we are currently at 3.4. But we saturate the 60% cash flow from operation distribution up to the limit, yes.
Jon Rigby
Head of Investor Relations
Great, thanks, Francesco. Thanks, Ahmed. We're going to move to Michele Della Vigna at Goldman Sachs. Michele?
Michele Della Vigna
Analyst, Goldman Sachs
Thank you, and again, congratulations on the strong results. Two questions. First, I wondered if you had any comment on... Thank you.
Claudio Descalzi
Chief Executive Officer
Okay, I think for both, for both, Kazakhstan and Mercuria, Guido will go on to answer and maybe I can add something, but I'm sure that we discover completely the two questions.
Guido
Head of Production
Okay, so let's start on arbitration, on this ongoing arbitration. Of course, first of all, let me clarify that the operator and all the shareholders In support, I mean, the operations have been conducted in compliance with the law of Kazakhstan. And NCOC had all the permits required to do so. That's an important element that we always have to underline. However, the Republic of Kazakhstan, through various instrumentalities and agencies, had continued to pursue this sulfur fine. has also commenced some enforcement steps. Despite, we have to say, there is, under the commercial arbitration, under the PSA, which is ongoing, there was a restraining order from an international tribunal prohibiting the Republic to take any measure to enforce the fine. And during the arbitration, of course. And of course, the operator is continuing to challenge this sulfur fine, including, of course, an investment treaty arbitration, which is currently ongoing also. So the situation is, of course, ongoing. At the moment, they made some steps, but at the moment, they are on hold on any other kind of enforcement. and this is the current situation on Kazakhstan. As far as the trading, clearly this is part of our transformation of the trading business. The trading business initially was more a kind of a business service provider in our corporation. Then we became more a marketplace player, again within the company. And then the third and last step was to merge with a pure trader to combine the best of the two worlds, to combine the variety, the diversified set of industrial assets, the structured supply portfolio of a corporate like E&I, very well diversified, as Claudio said, both in terms of business and geographies, With the operational flexibility, the systems of a pure player. Of course, I mean, it is a 50-50 JV. We expect in the long term that this JV and the trading activity will help to raise and lift our ROACE by one or two percentage points. And of course the cash flow per barrel and the overall result of the company.
Josh Stone
Analyst, UBS
Thank you.
Jon Rigby
Head of Investor Relations
Very good. Thanks Michele. We're now... We're going to now move to Fergus Neve at Rothschilds and Redburn. Fergus?
Fergus Neve
Analyst, Rothschild & Co
Brilliant. Thank you very much for taking my questions. Two questions, please. Just first, on any live, where the results were particularly strong this quarter, and it was great to see that feed through to the guidance upgrade. Could you just give us some colour on the relative split of the results between the marketing business and the biofuels business this quarter, and perhaps also comment on how your biofuel margins have been looking so far in 3Q? And then secondly, just following up from the earlier refining question, so the assumption in the scenario for the CERM has stepped up quite a bit for the second half, for the overall The first question for Stefano and the second one for Pino.
Stefano Galletta
Head of Marketing & Sales
Thank you for the question. The quarter has been very strong and the result has been driven by a step up of the biorefinery performance. In terms of overall result, out of the 375 EBITDA adjusted million euro, the rough number is around 35-40% contribution from the biorefinery. And this has been driven, yes, by the scenario improvement, Thank you very much. Moving forward, the situation is going to proceed in that direction. Rational is given by the fact that this market scenario is underpinned by an increased demand, demand for 2026 is foreseen around 20 million ton versus the 16 million of 2025. And this is due by the rollout of new regulation in Europe. With the Renewable Energy Directive we got just a few days ago Spain again confirming target moving from energy content to GAG reduction and banning double counting. And then on top in U.S. where we got in April confirmation on the new target from the Environmental Protection Agency. And even if we look at the markets as a whole, we saw that the flows from U.S. to Europe are pretty much dropping. And this is because the value of both markets is quite relevant and strong, given what I said. So this is another strong signal moving forward.
Pino Di Pietro
Head of Refining
Okay, about the CERN, what we are seeing now in July is a very, very high level, above $30 per barrel. That should remain very bullish in the next months because the combination of many factors. First of all, the storage is very, very low for all the products. There is a low refining capacity in operation. and we are in the driving season. The crack spread that we are seeing in gas oil but also in gasoline are very, very high and there is also some premium to import the product. So what we expect in the next month is a very, very bullish period and we are gaining of this because we are anticipating the shutdown of San Nazaro and Milazzo Refinery. They are the two main... Paul Redman BNP Paribas Paul
Paul Redman
Analyst, BNP Paribas
Hi everyone and thank you very much for your time. I had one question on strategy and that was just around the 320 service stations you've recently acquired in Europe. I just want to understand the strategic rationale for buying fuel stations today, but also what the impact could be on earnings from the deal. And then secondly, you guide to underlying improvement in your cash flow from operations of 700 million euros this year. I wanted to ask what are the key drivers of that underlying improvement? Thank you.
Francesco Gattegno
Chief Financial Officer
About the acquisition in Central Europe, mainly Germany and Denmark, this is part of a strategy of expanding our AnyLive marketing activity. AnyLive has already exposure to marketing in the country, in Germany. That is the second county as an Amaro station. We thought this is a good opportunity to buy a second tire brand that could be improved in terms of valorization, thanks to our clearly branding, possibility to add shopping and convenience stores, and benefiting also of local logistic support from our Germany refinery participation team. We have two participants in two plants in Germany. The contribution, this is an asset that is generating the range of 40-50 million euros for EBITDA. In terms of cash flow from operation improvement, is related to all the improvements that we mentioned during this conference. Production growth, upstream production growth, cash flow per barrel related to that growth, opportunity and growth generated by GGP, and any live benefit improvement that we mentioned through scenario and plant availability. All these elements are the major contributors of the cash flow revised guidance.
Paul Redman
Analyst, BNP Paribas
Thank you very much.
Jon Rigby
Head of Investor Relations
Thanks, Paul. We're going to now move to Nash at Barclays. Nash?
Nash
Analyst, Barclays
Thanks, John. Good afternoon, all. Two questions, please. The first one is downstream. Both AnyLife and Plenitude continue to improve profitability. and Outlook has improved too, especially on AnyLife. I wonder, does this change your view or your partner's strategic view over those businesses? And my second question is on Upstream. You have a very busy Upstream growth pipeline, 54 organic growth projects, as you mentioned, Could you talk about what ENI has done right to progress them in time and on their budget? Are you worried about future cap as cost inflation, please? Thank you.
Francesco Gattegno
Chief Financial Officer
On the view about the Eni Live and Plenitude, I think that this business confirms the model, the way we created this business that are putting together renewable content. Transition content plus retailer and therefore marketing outcome. This reinforces the possibility to navigate through the cycles. You saw in this business different cycles up and down because sometimes there are improvements and there is a slowdown, etc. But through the combination of these two elements we are able to manage in any case this kind of trend. We have a stronger balance sheet in each of them, so we have the possibility to use the generational cash on one side of the retailer in order to supply the growth of the renewable side. And therefore I think this is a confirmation that what we set up in the last four or five years related to these two businesses and the partnership that recognize the value of that is effective and working. This also helps us to have a faster view towards a potential IPO that is a final goal for each of them.
Guido
Head of Production
On our pipeline of projects, a couple of things first. First of all, we proved in the past, as Claudio said, that we've been able to manage a project within cost and within budget. And we've been able also to run multiple projects. Just to remind, last year we've started up five major projects, so we demonstrated that we are able to handle quite a large number of projects. Because of our fast track model, which is designed for that, is designed to and many others. As far as inflation is concerned, you are right. The inflation was already In the region of 3-4%, 2026-2025, and after the Middle East conflicts, the range is becoming more 4-6% because of the, of course, cost of the fuel and the dislocation of the market. But to ensure cost discipline and schedule reliability across the project, on top of this designed fast-track model, we have also an integrated procurement strategy which allowed us to expand the supply chain Thank you very much.
Nash
Analyst, Barclays
Very helpful, thank you.
Claudio Descalzi
Chief Executive Officer
Guido, I want to ask something about what Guido said, because, you know, we are in this situation today because, strategically, we built the company in that way. When, 15 years ago, everybody were outsourcing, we insourced. Was it against the mainstream, against the trendy situation of 20, 15 years ago? People prefer to reduce risk going through M&A. But we decided to insource. We decided, as we said, to create an engineering company. We decided to be specialized in the exploration. And then we decided to be specialized in the development, becoming the main contractors and moving the different package. So when you talk about cost, to be able... To contain costs, you must have the skills to control your activities. In each single step, if you are not able to control your activity, you can use the best model you want, you are not able to control your cost. If you build your project, you are able, if you build your company with this purpose, you are able to do that. and not only we demonstrated, but it was our strategy. And when we presented this kind of strategy more than 15, 16 years ago, people were surprised because we were not following the trend in exploration and everything. But that now, I think that we are in the best position To not just find new exploration resources, but be able to develop, be able to control our costs, be able to give the right guidance to our contractors.
Nash
Analyst, Barclays
Thank you. Very helpful. Thanks, Claudio.
Jon Rigby
Head of Investor Relations
Thanks, Nash. I'm conscious I said we'd close at the top of the hour, but I'm going to take my contingency and go to 3.10. We may not get around to everybody's asking questions, so... I apologize for that and you can follow up later. We're now going to move to Henry Tarr at Berenberg. Henry?
Henry Tarr
Analyst, Berenberg
Hi there and thanks for taking my questions. I have two. One is you have several projects obviously underway currently in the UAE and in Qatar. Is there any indication of the impact so far of the Hormuz disruption on these projects? I guess sort of following on From the cost question. And then secondly, the sites in transformation, I guess costs have been running at sort of 50 million a quarter through the first half. Is that a sensible indication for the second half? Thank you.
Guido
Head of Production
and this is both in Qatar and of course in UAE.
Francesco Gattegno
Chief Financial Officer
Yes, about the sites in transformation, this is already a flat trend, a steady quarterly trend that we instead we expect them to decline in the next years because clearly you reduce the amount of activity that have to be transformed.
Jon Rigby
Head of Investor Relations
Thanks, Henry. I'm going to move now to Al Simon, Citigroup. Al? Thanks, John.
Al Simon
Analyst, Citigroup
Can I just return to the question on Venezuela? I mean, you know, it gives us some clue about what you're looking in terms of the ways of protecting your investment. I mean, clearly there's big potential, but there's also quite big investment. So is it a service agreement or PSC? What sort of fiscal structure is it? And then I had a second question, which is actually bizarrely on fusion. I saw this quarter you signed this fusion fuels agreement in the UK. Obviously, you've got CFS starting up in Boston next year. Can you talk about what you think the next couple of years in fusion looks like? Should we be getting very excited about it?
Claudio Descalzi
Chief Executive Officer
Thank you. For Venezuela, I think that we already said before that that is a different kind of contract, so it's more likely a PSC or something like that, but, you know, this kind of... I talk about Kunin 5, because Kunin 5 is the main topic, so Perla, no problem, we can export. Coro Coro is good, but it's good, can give a contribution, but it's small. But the big contributor, we talk about really a big contribution, because it's almost five or six billion gross recoverable resources, is coming from this field. This field is mainly, mainly a drilling field. Because it's a shallow reservoir, 1,000 feet, so you can imagine what we do or what people do in the lower 48 in Permian, so very fast really, and then you cover. Thank you very much. Thank you very much. The depletion rate is not the same of the Permian, it's much better, I mean, the drainage area is quite good, so it's very heavy, that continues to produce also for some time without a big depletion, but we have, so the contract from one side is not imprisonista, clearly we are not going to invest with the old contract, and from the other side they The kind of EMP project that protects you from exposure in your company. I don't know, I want to say something. No. Okay, so talking about Fusion, Lorenzo, that is our director, head of all the technological services, R&D, and he's in charge of Fusion, maybe he can spend some words.
Lorenzo Carrara
Head of R&D
Thank you, Claudio. Just to provide you an update for CFS, the activity is going very well. We are at the final stage of construction. We are physically assembling the machine. We are more than 75% of advancement, so we are very confident by next year, beginning of 2028, the machine will be ready and then we will start up the commissioning to reach the positive Q greater than 1. Concerning the activity in the UK, we have signed an agreement with the UKEA, which is the nuclear agency, We are building a machine plant to treat the tritium. We are in the range of the 30% of advancement. And recently, like you correctly said, we created a private company called Riova with the aim to commercialize these technologies and so to become also an opportunity for industrial purpose. So activities are going very well in this direction.
Jon Rigby
Head of Investor Relations
Thanks, Lorenzo. Thanks, Al. We're going to now move, and I think this will have to be the last question, too, and I apologise to those still waiting. Maybe we can talk to you later. So this will be to Matt Lofting at J.P. Morgan. Matt.
Matt Lofting
Analyst, JP Morgan
Thanks, Jon. Congratulations to you all on a very strong update this morning. I wanted to just ask you about Latin America as a portfolio hub. You talked about Venezuela earlier, but when you look at the continent as a whole, it looks like it's becoming increasingly important to the Thank you.
Guido
Head of Production
Yeah, as we already said also in the Capital Market Update back in March, if you look at the production distribution, at 2030, South America will play a significant role in our share of production, mainly from, of course, Argentina, Venezuela, but also Mexico. In Mexico, we are... Claudio Descalzi gave some interesting features on Argentina. We are talking of a world-class basin, 25 TCF, 500 million of condensate, which makes 4.8 billion barrels of oil. To be recovered, we have an estimated production at peak at around 550,000 barrels of oil equivalent of which 200 liquids and the remaining is LNG for export. And this is the, I would say, the inventory of the reserves already discovered and to be developed. We are also expanding our exploration portfolio. We have acquired blocks in Uruguay, which is a very promising basin, and soon we will update you also on our plans in Uruguay. As far as the financial structure goes, On Venezuela, Claudio already said, which will be our setup. In Argentina, we are in partnership with YPF, the National Oil Company, and XRG, and this will be an incorporated venture which will manage all the value chain from the upstream to the midstream up to the export. The export is on an equity-like basis from at least the two international shareholders.
Claudio Descalzi
Chief Executive Officer
Thank you. I want just to add something in perspective. We talk about an energy race. So we really have to increase production in Korea and find energy. And the situation is quite different with respect to what... S.p.A. S.p.A. They're still present, but we are not now these. Or to Qatar or to other. In the future we are going to have again? I hope so. But in any case, we need more energy. And the race to energy now is different because there is no country where you can go there and buy energy. You have to go there and explore. You have to go there and develop. You have to go there and put in production. And then you can have your energy. So not just diversification. If you say that we need just diversification, you are superficial. You must have the skill to go there and find your resources and stay on the value chain. So that is a very different paradigm. So the world is changing. It's no more a question of buying stuff and selling stuff. We are not in a commercial or just trading. You must be in the industrial world. Situations where you are able to explore, develop and produce. Is something going back to the basics? Maybe yes, but that is the situation of today. Diversification is not enough. You must do the work from the beginning to the end if you want to win this energy rise. Thank you very much.
Jon Rigby
Head of Investor Relations
Thank you Matt for that question. I'm going to wrap the Q&A up right now so again apologies to those who weren't able to ask a question. Do please follow up with the investor relations team. I'm going to say good luck for the rest of the reporting season and please do enjoy a nice holiday period and we look forward to seeing you in September. Bye.