IBDRY Iberdrola, S.A.

OTC
$103.62

Iberdrola, S.A. Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator
Moderator
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. First, we would like to extend a warm welcome to all of you who have joined us today for our 2026 nine-month results presentation. As is customary, we will follow the traditional structure of our events. We are going to begin with an overview of the results and the key developments during the period, and the presentation and the Q&A session will be delivered by the top executive team joining us today. Mr. Ignacio Galán, Executive Chairman, Mr. Pedro Azagra, CEO, and finally, Mr. Pepe Sainz, CFO. After the presentation, we'll move on to the Q&A session. I would like to remind you that we will only be taking questions submitted through our website. Please send your question exclusively via www.iberdrola.com. Finally, we expect that today's event to last no more than 60 minutes. Should any question remain unanswered, the IR team will, as always, remain fully at your disposal. We hope that this presentation will be useful and informative for all of you. Now, without further ado, I would like to hand the floor over to Mr. Ignacio Galán. Thank you. Once again, please, Mr. Galán.
Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman
Thank you, Ignacio. Good morning, everyone, and thank you very much for joining today's conference call. In the first nine months of 2019-2026, reported net profit increased by 10% to 5,116 million euros and adjusted net profit reached 5,141, with 9% up. 30% excluded at this increase will be 30% excluded foreign exchange impacts. Ayaste Devinda increased by 7% to 11,191 million euros driven by the strong performance of networks up 15% due to higher asset base in all countries, rate increases and growing contribution from transmission. Total investment increased by 13% to 10.1 billion in only nine months with 75% allocated to United Kingdom, United States and Brazil. Network investment reached 6.3 billion, up to 28%, leading to a 14% increase in regulated status base to 56 billion euros. And we invested an additional 3.6 billion in power and customers with more than 2,300 megawatts of new capacity operational from January to September, for a total of 3,300 megawatts in the last 12 months. Thanks to our active debt management, we have combined those record investments with ongoing reinforcement of our financial strength, reflecting a debt-by-bid ratio of 3.4 times. And we maintain 70% of our total debt at fixed rates, excluding Brazil, which provides us significant protection against potential increases in interest rates. Following this result, the Board of Directors approved yesterday an increase of 8.7% in entering dividend to €0.275. As usual, we will add to this amount a supplementary dividend once approved in our annual shareholders' meeting on 2027. Finally, in last month, the acceleration of electrification and new energy policies have allowed us to increase the visibility of additional regulated investment and growth opportunities across the United Kingdom, United States, Brazil and Spain up to 20, 30 and beyond. Moving to results, adjusted EBITDA reached 11.9 billion euros, up 7%, with almost two-thirds coming from the United Kingdom, United States and Brazil. Net was increased by 15% to 6,430 million euros, contributing already 54% of the total EBITDA thanks to higher regulated SBA in all countries. The positive impact of Rio T3 in the UK in April, new rates in New York, Connecticut and the US, plus additional revenues from transmission after the commission of NCEC, rate increase in contribution from transmission in Brazil, and a strong performance in Spain as well. Power and Customers EBITDA reached 5359 million euros as the strong increase in demand in the third quarter led to higher procurement costs for electricity that had been sold at prices fixed in 2025. This negative impact is not expected to continue in the coming quarters as new sales are already reflecting higher prices. In addition, this business was impacted by young Syria's service in Iberia and higher costs in regulated gas tariffs, partially offset by the increasing contribution of pumping hydro in Iberia to the new facilitation operations like Valdecañas and Valparaiso in the Tahoe and Tera rivers. All in all, its fluid effects impacted Iberia's growth by 8%. Total investment, we are up 13% year on year, reaching a new record of 10.1 billion euros to September, or more than 15.5 billion in the last 12 months. The New York Kingdom was once again our largest destination, with more than 3.1 billion invested in the first 9 months, 31% of the total, followed by United States and Brazil with 21% each, Spain with 16%. and other European Union countries in Australia with 10% of the total investment. By businesses, network contributed 62% of the total investment, reaching 6,277 million euros, 20% more than last year. In the UK, network investment increased by 36%, reaching 2.1 billion, or 33% of the total, driven by 60% growth in transmission and 20% increase in distribution. Investment in Brazil also represents one-third of the total almost doubling year-on-year thanks to a 23% increase in distribution and acquisition of the energy minorities, which more than offset the decrease in transmission after the completion of the last project awarded. United States network investment reached 1.5 billion euros with 10% decrease due to the full commissioning of NCEC transmission project last January. Finally, investment and price in Spain increased by 20% year-on-year to 525 million. As a result, our regulated sales base reached 56 billion euros, up 14%. Transmission continues to be the key growth driver, with 31% increase in ROP year-on-year to 17 billion euros, and distribution ROP rose by 8% to almost 40 billion. By countries, the UK, the US and Brazil registered double-digit growth rates, reaching a combined contribution of 83% of our total regulated assets base. And this trend is expected to continue in the coming years. In the case of United Kingdom, distribution investments in the Rio de Janeiro ED2 framework were increased by 20%. In the U.S., the temporary distribution rate recently obtained in New York will support $2.2 billion of investment up to May 2027, and the poverty in New York multi-billion project continues progressing. And in Brazil, Neonegia will invest 9 billion euros in distribution up to 2030, doubling previous investment levels after renewal of the concessions. And more than offsetting the expected decrease in transmission after the completion of the old project awarded that already represent 4.3 billion euros of regulated assets base and will contribute more than 250 million of annual EBITDA. In Spain, we will also continue increasing investment following the improvement in incentives included in the new regulatory framework. And finally, the authorization process for the acquisition of Karuna in Finland is progressing as expected. Investment in renewable reached 3,357 million euros with 1.2 billion investing in onshore wind, another 1.2 billion in offshore wind, 450 million in solar, and 400 million euros in storage and other technologies. As a result, we stole more than 2,800 megawatts of new capacity, of which 1,000 correspond to onshore wind, mainly in continental Europe, Australia and United States, 550 megawatts of offshore wind in the US and Germany, and 700 megawatts to solar and storage, mainly in Iberia and continental Europe. By countries, more than 600 megawatts were installed in the U.S., in line with the strong increase in capacity reduced across the country over the last quarters. In the last 12 months, total capacity addition reached 3,300 megawatts, as I mentioned before. Once again, the increase in cash generation allows us to register record investment and preserve a strong financial position with a net debt-debit-debt ratio of 3.4 times, fully compatible with our AAA Plus rating. And we have continued to increase the share of fixed debt to 78% excluding Brazil, providing significant protection for potential increases in interest rates. Following this result, and our strong current financial position. Yesterday, the Board of Directors approved an insurance shareholder remuneration of 0.275 euros per share, 8.7% up. Next year, we will add to this amount the supplementary dividend approved at the next annual general meeting next year. As mentioned, in the last month we have continued to see significant improvements in our investment outlook to 230 and beyond, driven by increasing electrification targets and new energy policies. A few weeks ago, the International Energy Agency published a special report on electrification showing that just by using technologies currently available and cost-efficient, global electrification rates could increase by more than 10 points in just 10 years. Under this scenario, global electricity demand will increase by 50% up to 2035. This remarkable growth trend, after decades of flat evolution, is visible across all energy uses. For industry, where 40% of low and medium temperature process could be fully electrified, to transport or cooling and heating both with 50% electrification potential. And according to the electricity energy agency, this potential is even higher in mature economies like Europe, where electrification rate could increase by 15 points to almost 40% of the total final energy consumption. These technological trends will be further supported by energy policies that are promoting new investments across our main market, especially networks. In European Union, the electrification action plan recently approved by the Commission has set a target of 46% electrification by 2040. And the European grid package calls for a strong increase in networks investment up to 600 billion euros in just five years. I include these measures like the acceleration of permitting and the design of regulatory framework with sufficient incentives. In United Kingdom, the Clean Power 2030 Plan targets 95% clean electricity in just five years, and a building block of the country's net zero strategy to reduce emissions by 87% by 2040, but also as a way to promote energy security and autonomy across the UK. All these require present investment in transmission and distribution in line with the recent report published by the UK Independent System Operator, which estimates that only in transmission, network investment should reach £89 billion in the next decade, far above the estimates made two years ago. This positive outlook is already translating into tangible growth opportunities in all businesses and geographies. In Edwards, we expect to increase our regulatory base by around 60% up to 2030, reaching more than 90 billion euros, driven by huge investment requirements, including growth investment linked to demand increase, especially in Brazil, but also in Spain and the rest of our markets, where we continue receiving more and more connection requests, as well as new transmission lines or interconnectors. On top of this, refurbishment investment will also rise considerably, mostly in the UK and the US, to the high age of net worth assets, which average reach 45 years, and in some cases up to 70, 80, or even 90 years old. Finally, we also expect a strong growth investment linked to reliability and resilience due to the increased regulatory requirements. Given the positive investment outlook in the US and the UK, we expect an ongoing rise in the contribution of both countries to our network regulatory base, reaching 65 by 2030. In power and customers, we expect 15 gigawatts of new capacity between 2025 and 2030, of which 60% are already installing or under construction. Five gigawatts were already commissioned between January 25 and September 26, and 3.8 gigawatts are currently under construction, with 1.5 gigawatts starting operation already in the fourth quarter of 2026, mainly corresponding to its Anglia III offshore wind farm in UK, another 2.3 gigawatts in 2027 and 2028, including the Isanglia II offshore wind in the UK and 700 MW of onshore wind and solar in the US. In addition, we have up to 6.5 GWh capacity that will start construction shortly and will be commissioned in 2028, 2029 and 2030. Around one third of this capacity will be in the US, mainly driven by life extension and repoverting opportunities across our 11 GWh fleet in the country. We now head over to our CFO, which will present the group financial study for the detail. Pepe.
Pepe Sainz
Chief Financial Officer
Thank you very much, Chairman. Good morning to everybody. 9 months reported net profit grew 10% to 5.8 billion euros and adjusted net profit grew close to 9% to 5,141 million euros, supported by a 7% increase in adjusted EBITDA to 11.9 billion. Since last year, the dollar has depreciated 4.1% against the euro, The Pound 1.7%, while the Real has appreciated 5.5%. Excluding it, adjusted EBITDA growth would have reached 8% and adjusted net profit 13%. The adjustments to the reported P&L are as follows. In this quarter, in Q3, There is an impact of £382 million UK smart meter capital gain which is excluded from the adjusted net profit in 2025. The remaining adjustments were already reported at June. Regarding Mexico, in accordance with IFRS 5, Mexico is classified as discontinued operations. Therefore, its contribution is excluded from EBITDA in both reported and adjusted results. At net profit level, Mexico is presented under discontinued operations in the reported account, while in the adjusted figures is reflected under the equity line. As a consequence, in the second quarter we excluded the positive capital gain of around 1 billion euros from the sale of the remaining Mexican business to Cox. As usual, UK capital allowances are adjusted at net profit level in 2025 and 2026. Finally, US pass recognition is excluded from adjusted net profit in 2025 . You can find all these effects explained in more detail in the Annex on slides 37, 38 and 39. Adjusted revenues increased 8% versus 4.2% at June. Procurements rose to 12.3% compared with 4.8% also at June, mainly driven in Q3 by higher purchase volumes and prices required to support the strong demand and reinforced system operations. Selling prices have started to increase, and the benefit is expected to be reflected in future periods. Adjusted gross margin grew 4% and excluding the negative FX impact would have grown 5%. Adjusted net operating expenses were 1% lower year on year and remained flat excluding the FX impact. 9 months 25 adjusted other operating income excludes the 382 million UK smart meter capital gain. Net personal expenses increased 8.2% as the second quarter of 2025 included some positive non-recurring impacts. Average headcount increased by 2.9%. External services grew 1.7%. An adjusted operating income, once excluded the mentioned US$382 million smart meter capital gain, improved by 37%. As in Q3 of 25 we had a negative impact of 121 million due to the deconsolidation of East of Anglia III. Analyzing the network's business, its adjusted EBITDA grew 15% to 6,430 million euros, with a balanced contribution from the four geographies and driven by strong performance in all of them. Network's EBITDA already accounts for 54% of the group EBITDA, reflecting the increasing contribution that will continue growing in the following years, as the Chairman has commented. and as Iberdrola invests predominantly in networks. In the U.S., adjusted EBITDA increased 19% to $1,780 million, excluding the $550 million pass recognition booked in the first quarter of 2025 included in the reported figures, underlying performance benefit from higher rates in distribution, and an increased contribution from transmission, including NECC, following the January 16 COD. In the UK EBITDA increased 20% to 1,355 million pounds with increasing contribution from transmission driven by the new Rio T3 framework in place from April 26 onwards. In Brazil EBITDA grew 4% to R$ 10.4 billion, driven by higher revenues in distribution due to better rates and demand, partially offset by a temporary accounting negative impact from recent concessions renewal. As the investments have been completed, there is also a higher contribution from transmission. In Spain, EBITDA increased 18% to 1,586 million euros due to the new financial remuneration and, additionally, the recognition of operational expenditure allowances from previous years, especially visible in Q3. Nine months, power and customer business adjusted EBITDA decreased 2% to 5.4 billion euros. During the period, Iberdrola produced 91 terawatt hours of electricity. Thank you very much. In Iberia, EBITDA was 2.9 billion euros , with sales increased due to demand growth, but impacted by higher procurement costs, with a slightly lower renewable production mainly due to lower wind and more gas production. We have been selling at 25 prices, but procurement cost in this quarter has been much higher. We are already selling at higher prices, which will help to offset the increase in procurement costs. The benefit is expected to materialize from 2027 onwards. In addition, we registered a negative impact from regulated gas rates linked to the higher cost of gas as well as an increase in ancillary services. We are appealing to the regulator these ancillary services charges to be included as fixed costs in the rates. In the UK, adjusted EBITDA increased 8.4% to 880 million pounds thanks to higher wind but with lower prices that will be reviewed for 27. Reported figures are affected by the smart meters capital gain in Q3 of 25. In the US EBITDA grew by 4.2% to $847 million. Growth was driven by the higher contribution from wind and solar assets, supported by 750 MW added over the last 12 months and stronger power prices, partially offset by lower thermal contribution as well as timing effects. In the rest of the world EBITDA decreased 11.9% to 580 million euros, with higher production but lower prices, also additionally affected by the sale of Hungary and France, and the negative impact of higher ancillary services in Portugal. In Brazil EBITDA increased 6.3% to 1,007 million reais, with higher contribution from the retail business, partially offset by lower renewable production. DNA and provisions grew 1%, reaching 4,245 million euros in line with previous quarters, driven by higher provisions partially offset by the life extension in the wind assets. Adjusted EBIT grew 11%, reaching 7,645 million euros. Net financial result increased by 524 million euros to a negative of 1.7 billion euros, mainly driven by negative derivatives impact, especially in the second quarter reflecting the East of Hungary positive one-off of 292 million euros accounted in the second quarter on 25, and FX hedges linked to the exchange rates as they were positive 25 and negative these years, especially due to the recent revaluation of the dollar and the real. Debt costs increased 22 basis points, consequence of higher Brazilian rates, and the real appreciation. Excluding the real, debt costs fell seven basis points to 3.47%. Debt has had a moderate growth of €600 million in the quarter to €54.6 billion, even after August's €2.5 billion dividend payment, unaffected by currency appreciation. The evolution in the year also reflects the strong effort in CAPEX. More than offset by FFO generation, an asset rotation proceeds. Iberdrola maintains solid credit metrics with a comfortable BBB plus BAA1 rating. This financial strength allows the group to continue investing while preserving balance sheet flexibility. Our adjusted net debt to EBITDA stood at 3.4 times, the adjusted FFO over adjusted net debt was 22.4% and our adjusted leverage ratio 45.8%. ratios are in line or better than in the first half and weaker than one year ago but remember that we did the capital increase in Q3 of last year. 9 months 26 adjusted net profit grew by 9% to 5,141 million euros compared to euros 4,727 million adjusted net profit in the 9 months of 25. Excluding the FX impact, adjusted net profit would have grown by 13%. Reported net profit grew 10%. The difference between adjusted net profit is mainly explained by the 1 billion euros capital gain from the Mexico transaction, recognized in the second quarter, partially offset by capital allowances in the UK. And now the Chairman will conclude the presentation. Thank you very much.
Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman
Thank you, Pepe. To conclude, over the first nine months, we have seen consistent growth trend that we expected to continue in the fourth quarter, driven by an additional 15% increase in net worth up to December, mainly due to transmission investment in the US, UK, and Brazil, and rate increases in distribution across markets like the one recently approved in Brasilia. Power and customer results will reflect 3,300 megawatts already installed in the last 12 months, plus 1,500 additional megawatts that will be operational in the fourth quarter, benefiting from higher prices expected year-end and in 2027, as well as the increasing contribution from Pampen Hydro in Iberia to the new asset in operation. Finally, cash flow generation will continue increasing due to new investment, mainly regulated networks, and long-term contracted business, and to our ongoing operational efficiency measures, supporting our strong financial position and our triple-plus rating. All these factors allow us to improve today our guidance for full year 2026 result to more than 10% growth in adjusted net profit. And we are targeting to maintain a 10% average growth rate in adjusted net profit over the next five years benefiting from increasing investment opportunities in networks, renewable generation and storage across all our markets. Our anticipation, our business model, our execution capabilities place Iberdrola in the best position to capture these opportunities. Over the last 25 years, we have built a non-replicable footprint of NERGO licenses across the UK, US, Brazil, Spain, and shortly also in Finland. and competitive and diversified generation fleet with increasing repower and life extension opportunities as well as a mature portfolio of greenfield projects across all our geographies. Strong commercial capabilities and large base of residential and industrial customers, a solid balance sheet, a full access to capital, supply chains and talent, So we will provide you for the details regarding all this aspect in our Capital Market Day next March. So thank you very much for your attention. We can now begin with the Q&A session. Thank you.
Operator
Moderator
Thank you, Mr. Galan. And the following financial professionals have raised the following questions. Alberto Gandolfi, Goldman Sachs, Meike Becker, HSBC, Pedro Alves, CaixaBank, Peter Crampton, Barclays, Rob Pulein, Morgan Stanley, James Brand, Deutsche Bank, Peter Vistiga, Bank of America, Ahmed Farfan, Jefferies, Manuel Palomo, BNP Paribas, Fernando Garcia, Royal Bank of Canada, Sky London, Rothschild, Jorge Alonso, Bursting Societe General, Javier Garrido, JP Morgan, Javier Suarez, Mediobanca, and finally Gonzalo Sánchez Bordona, UBS. The first question is related to the main drivers of Iberdrola adjusted net profit growth in the first nine months of the year 2026.
Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman
So I think the business drivers were very clear. Net was higher RAP in all countries, as I mentioned, reaching 56 billion. Also, we have a strong performance in all countries. In UK, higher contribution for electricity in the West than we consolidated in March. Increasing contribution from transmission of the T-3 that we had to start the construction in April. And US higher rates in New York and Connecticut. A contribution of the transmission, the interconnection between Canada and Massachusetts and CEC from January. And in Brazil, increasing revenues and distribution thanks to better tariffs, in most cases better rates. Higher contribution of the transmission I mentioned we just completed. It's more than 6,000 kilometers of transmission line completed. In Spain, a strong performance thanks to the investment recognition of OPEC's allowance from previous years. In power, higher demand in Q3. The only problem here is with prices fixed in 2025 resulted in a higher procurement cost as has been mentioned by Pepe. But now is the new sales are already reflecting these new prices. And so I think that can be already a positive contribution on that one. Higher production in the UK, US, EU countries, an increasing contribution of pumping hydro, especially that one we are beating records of production during this year. Maria Dolores Herrera Pereda, Agustín Delgado, Jose Ignacio Sanchez Garrido, Ainara De Elejoste Echebarria So, all in all, I think the adjusted net profit was 9%, which is 13% if we are excluding FX impact that Pepe mentioned before as well.
Operator
Moderator
Next, what non-recurring items affected EBITDA and net profit in the first nine months of 2026 and how do they compare with the 2025 fiscal year?
Pepe Sainz
Chief Financial Officer
Pepe? Yeah, well, as you know, in such a large group, there are always some non-recurring impacts across the different businesses. But as we have defined them in page 18 of the presentation, basically, it comes from the asset rotation, capital gains or losses. In general, we've been consistent On that, there is an exception with this accounting treatment of the sales in the US, which they had a cash impact. So basically, at the EBITDA level in 26, there is no adjustment from non-recurrent impacts defined as we have done it in the page 18. And in 25, we have had and we are taking the positive impact of 530 million and the positive impact of the 382 million that we had also positive in the in the UK due to the sale of the smart meter businesses and obviously at the net profit the impact of these two is netted from taxes so 389 million from network cost recognition In addition to that, we had the 953 million of capital gains from the asset rotation this year that we are taking out for reflecting on an adjusted basis.
Operator
Moderator
Which are the main drivers supporting the upgrade in your 2026 guidance?
Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman
So, as I commented last July, our good performance in the first half has already improved in this quarter due to things I mentioned before. I think an increase in our regulated assets base in our countries. I think we are investing more, so the RAP is increasing in our countries. There are some frameworks with better rates as well in regulated. It's as well increased contribution from our transmission business. The T3, I think as much investment you're making that is directly contributing to our P&L. NCNC is already full completed. And in Brazil as well, all our transmission is completed. Now is, as I mentioned, is making a contribution of circa 250, 300 million euros per annum additional. and also the full ownership of Neonergía. Since beginning of the year we have already this Neonergía which is 100% our own. I think power, as well I mentioned, I think we had already built 3.3 new gigawatts in the last 12 months. But I think to this one, we will add another 1.5 gigawatts before the year end, which now is in construction. I think we are achieving better prices. I think, as was mentioned by Pepe, we have been selling most part of the year with 20, 25 prices in our retail business. Thank you very much. As well, as I mentioned, we are beating record Pampa Hydro and we expect that to continue as well in the following months. Of course, our efficiencies will continue systematically on that one in the long term. Now, certain of these efficiencies are coming as well by the introduction of artificial intelligence in some of our processes that is already just starting delivering some positive effect. The positive management of the debt and financial expenses, Pepe mentioned as well. And that all the reason, this reason is what has already allow us to provide already to increase the guidance to WDG growth and adjusting the profit by DRN more than 10%. So that is what we have been saying before.
Operator
Moderator
Next, regarding the next Capital Markets Day, it has been over a year since you presented your strategic plan. What has changed? What upside do you foresee for your current plan and what should investors expect from the next capital markets day?
Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman
So I think all the trends and all the expectation is already moving in our direction. So you see, I present already the documents which has been made by international agency, by European Commission, by British government. So all of them are coincident with our vision which has been already developing across the last 25 years. And that's a lot. So increase in electricity demand, more electrification. So that makes ourselves that we need to make higher investment than expected, both in networks and in power, in renewables. And I think if we make more investment, if the demand is increasing, if the prices looks already are trends which continue at a good level, this provides better, better result. And that is what allow us and Maria Dolores Armada. Renewables, Networks and Storage. And now all the documents we've been published are talking about more power renewables, more networks, and more storage. And I think we are 25 years already making this one. So which I think we are for the basis for growing more than no one else because we have already the base for making this already growth much higher than others. We now are discovering that it's needed to make more power in renewables, more networks, and more storage. I think, as I mentioned, in terms of networks, we have already a unique footprint. So we are present in different countries, and all countries are already setting targets. United States. for one reason, UK for another reason, Iberia for another reason, and Brazil for another reason, and soon as well, Finland for another reason. So, but all of them are coinciding one thing, needed more and more and more investment In networks, transmission, and distribution. So in transmission, for instance, if you look already at our documents, I think now we represent roughly one-third of our total ROP. So it was almost nil a few years ago. It was not considered, but the growth in this area is huge. In UK, we multiply by five our transmission business. In United States, we are billionaire transmission in this moment in construction for injecting electricity into New York City. In Brazil, we has completed almost 5 billion of transmission lines that we have nothing a few years ago. So all those started trends will make us to be already positive and optimistic about the future of the result of the company.
Operator
Moderator
Next is asking about Karun acquisitions, approval processes, explaining the strategic rationale and unexpected return from this new company in the group.
Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman
David.
David
Head of M&A and Corporate Development
Thank you, Chairman. Regarding the approval process, the authorization progress is advancing as expected. There are three regulatory approvals required to close the transaction. The first one is the European Commission antitrust that has been already received. The second one is the European Commission FSR. All questions received during the pre-notification phase has been replied successfully, and after positive feedback received from the authorities, the formal notification has already been submitted. and third is the FDI in Finland. The film has been submitted and the authorities are processing it. As a conclusion, approvals are expected to be received before the end of 2026 and transaction closing is expected early in 2027. Regarding the Estoteco Rational unexpected returns, just to remind that Karuna is the largest distribution company in Finland. Serving 1.5 million population. Finland is a market that will require huge investment due to electrification with additional opportunities in AI and in transmission. A clear example is the recent announcement made by Google of 15 billion euros in data centers. Caruna has high-quality assets and a strong team in a stable AA-rated country. It is an accretive transaction since the first year and net profit expected to grow at an average of 7% rate in the next decade. Just as a reminder, we financed the transaction with the funds and the capital gains obtained from the sale of our thermal generation in Mexico.
Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman
So, I think I had the opportunity last week to visit Finland with the occasion of the official visit of the Spanish King and Queen. I had the opportunity of meeting in the official dinner with the President of the Republic, with the Ministers, with the Prime Ministers and with and members of the financial community. I came more than delighted. I think we are more than welcome. Everybody was very positive toward our transaction, our deal. The country expectation is very, very positive in all terms. It's tremendous stability politically. Agustín Delgado, Agustín Delgado I was very positive and delighted and I'm very glad what David has mentioned that all the permits is going to be of them soon and to complete the transaction events shorter than expected.
Operator
Moderator
Should investors expect further M&A transaction after Karuna?
Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman
So I think you know always my answer. So I think let's first complete Karuna and let's meet afterwards to talk another thing. I think historically always we have already made the same process. We are very predictable. We integrate, we acquire something, we integrate, and when it's fully integrated, we start thinking on other opportunities. But we are not making three things at a time. I think it's first, now priorities and focus is to complete the transaction of Karuna. One will be completed. We will integrate this Karuna into our system. And who knows what is going to be in the future? But now is not our future. We are not already dreaming and thinking what it's going to make in 2033 once. I think now is all our people is fully focused, as David was mentioned, is looking and accelerating all the permits needed. All our business people are already ready for making the integration and with the rest, with the methods, system processes, et cetera, set of the group. And when this will be completed, we will see, but now we are not looking for more things than those which is already, as always, complete the transaction, integrate the transaction.
Operator
Moderator
Next is, what is your view on the new UK government and its approach to energy policy, regulation, grid investments and the autumn budget?
Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman
So, the first thing is the Prime Minister is not an unknown for Scottish powers. So, you know, we have already worked with Andy Burnham and his team in the Greater Manchester area during the time he was a mayor. So, we have the distribution of this area. We know well his administration and all the things related. But I think what we are seeing on the comment he is already making already, we are seeing continuity in the key policies. So I think they continue with more support to electrification. They are looking for more self-sufficient in the country, using all kind of means for making that happen. So they would like to diminish the external dependence of imports, which is coincident with the European Commission is already predicated as well. The Commission is trying for all means to increase The government has announced reduction to zero to the VAT for electricity bills. And as well, they are already announcing the acceleration of more grid connection, even if pushing us to accelerate that one, opening the door to a special company which is based in British grid or something else, which is a little amount, but I think it's already just only 4 billion, more than 100 billion investment required. So, but I think that is an incentive for moving faster and that can help already as well for obtaining permits and obtaining already acceleration and more agility in all the things which is needed for being faster. You know as well that the regulation for transmission is already giving incentives Maria Dolores Herrera Pereda, Agustín Delgado I had the opportunity to have a meeting with the Scottish Prime Minister last week as well and I think he was more than pleased in helping us for doing the necessary for accelerating all the investment required in Scotland for making already more electrifying more and more the economy because of the positive effect we have already for the economy. There are still thousands of megawatts pending connection, and that is what we have to deliver as soon as possible for the benefit of the British citizens and the Scottish citizens.
Operator
Moderator
Next is regarding Spain. What is your assessment on the regulatory measures being considered in Spain, including the removal of the 7% generation tax and a higher investment limit for electricity networks?
Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman
I think the removal of 7% of the initial tax, I think is certain that's good. That is going to reduce retail prices and wholesale prices. That is positive. I think that will be, you have to be aware that that is going to be implemented gradually from now to 2028 and following one. And there are certain conditions as well, certain I think that is not new. That is following the recommendations of European Union to reduce taxes on electricity and to promote electrification. So I think it's very coherent with the European directives in the sense of helping to more electrification and penalizing less electricity toward another fossil fuel sources. There are other positive things. I think in the case of networks, it has already been eliminated the restriction to invest. So that's positive. You remember that was linked to the GDP and so on. It was something which is not already reflected the reality of the needs of the country. and many more. Also has been introduced certain improvement in the rate case of distribution with certain incentives for improving, we can improve the return of equity. That gave us the incentive to accelerate our investment. So I think the numbers, the return of equity they gave was quite low. But I think with this potential incentive that we will fight for achieving, that makes already more attractive. So, all in all, that means that our expectation is to invest on the range of 1.2 billion euros in distribution in 2027, which is more than 50% of that what we've been making in 2025. So, which I think we feel is positive, is rational. So we need already connection, we need to make more connection, and we need already to refurbish the grid, and we need already to expand the grid. And I think that is what now has been removed, all these limitation, and they're giving incentive, same than UK, for another reason, to accelerate, to make the things better in a proper manner.
Operator
Moderator
Next is another about Spain. Are you concerned about possible government intervention in the Spanish electricity market?
Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman
So I think all what we are hearing at the level of the European Union, at the level of the Spanish government, and at the level of all the stakeholders, is they are talking about oil and gas. They are not talking about electricity. All the measures that are already mentioned in oil and gas are areas where they can already look and many more. Thank you. I think that was the letter sent by different European Union countries to the Commission, which was included in Spain. It was absolutely in this line. But I think the document has been sent by a statement made by President von der Leyen and Commissioner Jorgensen and other commissioners are clear. They would like to distinguish clearly between fossil fuels and electricity, and all are very focused in promoting electrification. I think if you listen the president of the commission, Ursula von der Leyen, in his speech, she was very, very clear that her ambition of diminishing the European dependency through investment more and more in local sources and investing more and more Maria Dolores Arambarri, Maria Dolores Arambarri Electric transport, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. So all I think now the European Commission and the European countries understood clearly that the problem is not electrification. It's the solution for the external dependency of the countries and for avoiding the crisis with time to time is happening as consequent of the import of energy for third countries. Energy, when I said energy, I mean oil and gas.
Operator
Moderator
Next is what they knew of the proposed capacity market in Spain. Any insight of the calendar?
Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman
So I think we are seeing every day how Red Electrica, the Spanish system operator, is already just making worries about the level of lack of enough synchronous power. and they are already just forcing to stop, already to disconnect certain big users and that already giving us not permission for making some kind of maintenance of these synchronous, et cetera. So I think that means that the need of more synchronous power in the system is clear. I was repeating that one for many, many, many times. I think in the blackout I was insisting the lack of enough Thank you very much. Maria Dolores Arambarri, Maria Dolores Arambarri, Maria Dolores Next is again about Spain. How do you expect Iberdrola's retail margins in Spain to evolve over the long term? I think Pepe was mentioning clearly, I think we've been, fortunately, the demand is growing. I think that is a very positive thing. I think demand in August grew by almost 5%, which I think that is precisely the numbers which is the international agency is mentioning that the demand in most Western world is going to move from 2% to 5% or 4% or 5%. So, I think that's positive. What happened in our case? I think we sold, in 2025, our expected production at the prices at that time, they were, and the prices were lower. If the demand is higher, we have not enough already production of our traditional sources, with most of them are already renewables, and we are forced either to generate with gas, with our or to buy electricity from the market. Maria Dolores Herrera Pereda, Agustín Delgado, Jose Ignacio Sanchez Garrido, Ainara De Elejoste Echebarria We are adjusting all this renovation of contracts. We are already modifying the prices for adapting to the new term. So I think we are going to benefit of the new prices of those contracts that we are already renewing during this period. and those is going to be the prices for 2027 which should be based more in the actual prices and then those what we can already expect this year as well then we are fixing all our expectation of production of our let's say renewable sources together with the the other sources that we complete we complement always but i think we are positive because prices are higher covering already the gap Next is regarding the U.S. What opportunities do you see in the U.S. renewables market, particularly for new projects? Are you seeing higher appetite for signing new PPAs? So we are seeing in the U.S. a huge demand. I think we are seeing there is projected by international agency. We are seeing as well that in the last 18 months, the United States has already installed something like 89,000 megawatts of new renewables and batteries. and the expectation is in the next 12 months to continue in the same range. I think we already identified something like 85,000 new megawatts which is going to be built in the next 12 months. and of course we are benefiting of this of this demand as we as i mentioned we have installed 750 megawatts in the last 12 months and we have already just much additional project online for the next five years in two lines one is Maria Dolores Arambarri, Maria Dolores Arambarri, and I can already, I saw already the optimism in our people for already for building more and to benefiting of this extra demand. So I think we have a unique position. I think we have 11,000 megawatts already in operation of renewable wind mostly. And I think most of those can already been either extending life or repowering and selling new PPAs as we are doing in this moment. So we are optimistic then the next, A few months we will continue already increasing our fleet and our numbers in the contribution of our power business in United States.
Operator
Moderator
Next is about U.S. Can you provide an update on the avant-garde rate cases in New York and Maine?
Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman
Pedro.
Pedro Azagra
Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Chairman. I think in the U.S., you know, first we finished the rate case in Berkshire in Massachusetts, which is a three-year rate case. That's done. I think in New York, we got 2.2 billion of capital expenditure approved between now and the end of May next year. So we're also done, 2.2 billion. We're working right now on the OPEX related to the period and also on a multi-year rate case, you know, to be approved as well. I think it's important that you know whatever we get approved next year there is a make whole provision which basically means everything starting June 1st 26 you know will be already considered in in that remuneration that will be approved I think in the case of Maine you know we were focused on the stones recovery we got everything that was spending last year several hundred millions then the early this year we filed a rate case that rate case is expected to close in April 27 and it will be all the investments we have done in the last you know 18 months plus you know one year forward That's what we expect to happen in April next year, in 27.
Operator
Moderator
Next is, which is your outlook for power prices, volume, sales, and commercial margin across Iberdrola main geographies?
Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman
So as I mentioned, the demand is increasing. And as I mentioned as well, we are seeing higher prices. And so I think if we expect due to these higher prices, our margin will already improve at the rest of 2026 and 2027. I think the conditions for the, I may be lost what is already the situation of the Gulf, But I think it looks that the situation of gas prices, the forward prices, are not already diminishing much. So if that continues in this one, I think probably the prices will continue higher for a while. I think it's... I wish that it finishes as soon as possible, but if not, I think we'll be depending on this one. In any case, prices reached are not already those ones we had already in 2021. So I think it's... We are already at a level prices which are much lower than those we achieved at this period. I think this year, at least in Spain and France, in Portugal, I think the highest prices are probably peak 140, 130, 150. But the average price on the year is on the range of 70, 60, 70, still, because we have the first part of the year very low prices. So I think the average is higher than previous, but not much. So which I think that is a reality. So we have not considered only the situation, puntual situation, but as well the average of the year.
Operator
Moderator
There are a couple of questions on data center, including what opportunities data center and artificial intelligence can create for Iberdrola, and our opinion about the Spanish royal decree to regulate their development in Spain.
Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman
So I've been already mentioning to you that artificial intelligence, we are very positive on it because it's another source of demand growth. So I think it's another, like it's cooling and heating, like it's transportation, like it's electrification in certain areas of the industry, et cetera, et cetera. So that's why we've been doing our best to facilitate that this new demand will be installed. So we are helping to our customers to invest in data centers, providing, in the case we can, land, connection permits, power. et cetera, et cetera. I think that also is very good for networks. I think the extra investment of networks, the extra cost that can already provide this extra investment in networks can be diluted for the citizen for the higher consumption of these data centers, which I think all citizens can benefit or lower fixed prices in their bill, in the tariff, as consequence of the largest use of energy of those one, we can already contribute Maria Dolores Herrera So in terms of the regulation of data centers, well, my position is really clear. It's going to happen. Data center is going to be built. So they are already, in some cases, Thank you very much. So in the case of the jobs, et cetera, so certain that is going to provide job, different type of job, but it's going to provide hundreds of thousands of new jobs on that one. So I think all the arguments which in use, I think I'm sure then is going to come on due time. I think when I listen, the water consumption remind to me once somebody said the nuclear cannot be installed because they make consumption of water. And I said to this one, we said to me that one said, the consumption is exactly the same one that the coal power plant, because the thermic cycle is the same one, the cycle of Rankine, which is exactly using the same thing. Steam, which is transforming in water, and afterward is steam and water, and refrigerated. So that is the same thing. Thank you very much.
Operator
Moderator
Next is how do you assess the outlook for offshore winning Europe and UK and what criteria guide Iberdrola's participation in new auctions is.
Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman
So I think in this moment we have seven offshore wind farms in operation. We have already a track record and experience in building and delivering. We participate in all the auction, always based in selective criteria, but with one clear idea. If we participate and we win, we deliver. So we are seeing in this moment that in the Western world, and more than half of the auction awarded has not been built. So almost 78 gigawatts has been awarded in our core markets. Only 50% has already, even not completed, has FID. But only four or five has already finally built. We participate with a commitment toward the authorities, then we will build those one if we win. So many others are already coming there as an option. Agustín Delgado, Agustín Delgado and many, many more. Thank you. So, and I think those countries, what they would like to have already show a success on auction because many bidders, but they don't care about how many of those are executed is fine. In that case, we don't play this game. We play the game of presented already some project with looking for a strict profitability, a balance of risk between the construction and operation. We always go with a secure supply chains Always prior to the bid, always as well with the outtakers at a great price. So we are not already insisting. For us, it's not an auction just to see if we have opportunity or not. We have already the commitment of execution, which is our, if you put in our brand Iberdrola, equal execution. Iberdrola never fail, always executed.
Operator
Moderator
Last question, looking beyond 2013, what do you expect from the long-term investment cycle in networks, and do you believe the current growth trajectory can be sustained?
Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman
So I show to you in my presentation that our planning is to accelerate investment in networks up to 2013 billion. And not because we are planning, it's because we are requested by regulators and by countries to accelerate that one. I think the case of Spain or the case of UK, The European Commission is recommended to give already better, let's say, make already more attractive The investment on this one is thin. I think the electrification is here. It was my dream 25 years ago. Now it's not a dream. Now it's a reality. So the demand is growing in all countries. The number of electric vehicles, because of this energy crisis, is booming in all countries. Now the problem is if it's Chinese, Japanese, Korean, or European, or American. But I think the demand is there and the cars are already being installed. So the electrification is a fact. But I think that needs already networks for reconnecting. It's not connection only between the production centers to construction center. As well, it's already the connected between. Maria Dolores Herrera Pereda, Agustín Delgado, Jose Ignacio Sanchez Garrido, Ainara De Elejoste Echebarria All our grid need to be double or triple the capacity than at present. And that means reinforcing the cable, reinforcing the substation, reinforcing the transformers. But that is happening. And I used to say that probably our sector is the only one which always we are behind the demand. Normally the factories, I make the example, the factories are made after the roads are built. Here we make the factories and afterwards we are looking to build the road. So that is what European Commission would like to change the trend. So let's put the readiness and infrastructures for facilitating electrifying many, many uses. Because if we are expecting that the uses will be built before the connection, that never happened, because the people is not ready to build the factory expecting that the connection arrive. It's looking for the connection for starting the factory. So now the trend which is moving. That's why we are receiving this new, Thank you very much. and Australia, but all are the same thing. So any country I go is double, double, double. I was, last time I was in Brazil, they already extended the life of the concession, but the condition is you have to invest more in networks, double. So I think that is the reality we are facing everywhere.
Operator
Moderator
Okay, 10 minutes more than expected. End of this conference call. I will now hand the floor over to Mr. Garral again to close this event.
Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman
So, thank you very much for taking part in this conference. As usual, our investor relations team will be more than available for any additional information you may require. But I hope that it has been useful for you and the explanation we provide and the positive expectations for the short term and the medium term as well. Thank you very much.
David
Head of M&A and Corporate Development
Thank you.