MET MetLife, Inc.
$97.66
MetLife, Inc. Q2 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Thursday, August 6, 2026
AI Conference Call Analysis
Sign in or subscribe to read.Michel
President & Chief Executive Officer
or 11% on a constant currency basis. Adjusted PFOs grew 12% on a constant currency basis, supported by sales and renewal activity across the region. Sales increased 15%, reflecting sustained and broad-based growth. Now shifting to MetLife Investment Management or MEM, The segment generated adjusted earnings of $57 million, up 6%. Growth reflected the contribution from integrating Pinebridge Investments and expense management. Other revenues increased 34%, and total assets under management reached approximately $748 billion. Our second quarter performance illustrates the advantage of diversification. Different businesses contribute in different ways, but together they each benefit from the scale and capabilities of the broader MetLife enterprise. Shifting to cash and capital, MetLife continues to operate from a position of financial strength. During the quarter, we repurchased approximately $700 million of common shares. Here today, through July, we have returned over $2.4 billion to MetLife shareholders through a combination of stock buybacks and common dividends. Last night, we announced a new $3 billion share repurchase authorization, reflecting our confidence in MetLife's capital generation and long-term outlook. And we ended the quarter with $3.4 billion of cash and liquid assets at our holding companies, firmly within our $3 to $4 billion target buffer. Our approach to capital deployment and allocation remains consistent. Our first priority is to fund responsible organic growth where MetLife has structural advantages and opportunities to earn attractive risk-adjusted returns. We will pursue inorganic investments when they add strategic capabilities, meet our financial criteria, and create value. Beyond those opportunities, we return excess capital to shareholders over time. We are also using reinsurance and third party capital to support additional retirement origination while creating assets for MEM to manage. This enables us to pursue customer demand in a more capital efficient manner and extend the value of our platform across the enterprise. Most importantly, growth is translating into tangible shareholder value. Disciplined strategic capital deployment fuels future earnings and strong recurring free cash flow enables us to invest in our businesses and also return capital consistently. In closing, this was an excellent quarter that once again demonstrated the investment case for MetLife on their new frontier. Our complementary earnings engines, Capital Light and Capital Driven, are working together as intended. They create a more balanced and durable earnings profile along with a stronger foundation for long-term value creation. We are pleased with our progress. We have confidence in the strengths we have built over time, the momentum across our businesses, and our ability to execute through a range of environments. New Frontier is the right strategy for MetLife, and we are moving forward with speed and purpose. With that, I'll turn it over to John to walk through the results in more detail.
John
Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Michel, and good morning, everyone. This quarter is another strong demonstration of MetLife's earnings power and the strength of our business model. We generated broad-based growth across the enterprise, delivered excellent underwriting results, maintained disciplined expense management, and continued to deploy capital prudently. So I'll start on page three of the earnings call presentation and walk through the key drivers of the second quarter performance. It was an excellent quarter, and the combination of growth, returns, and execution enabled us to meet or exceed our key financial commitments once again. Adjusted EPS grew 20%, while adjusted ROE reached 17% at the top end of our 15-17% target range. Our direct expense ratio was 12.1%, and keeping us on track to beat our 12.1% 2026 annual target. Net income totaled $705 million or $1.09 per share, while adjusted earnings were $1.6 billion or $2.43 per share. The difference between net income and adjusted earnings was primarily driven by mark-to-market accounting on our derivatives and net investment losses. Overall, our outlook on credit remains stable and our hedging program continues to perform as expected. Moving to page four, adjusted earnings increased 15% year over year, or 14% on a constant currency basis. Growth was balanced across the enterprise, driven by favorable underwriting margins, strong volume growth across all segments, and higher investment margins, partially offset by less favorable expense margins. Adjusted earnings per share were up 20% and 19% on a constant currency basis, with strong earnings growth supported by disciplined capital management. Now moving to the businesses. Group benefits had an outstanding quarter, generating adjusted earnings of $503 million, up 25% year over year, driven by favorable underwriting margins and volume growth. The group life mortality ratio was 79% for the quarter, better than our 2026 target range of 83% to 88%. Reflecting continued favorable mortality trends among the working age population. The non-medical health interest adjusted benefit ratio was 73.9% within our annual target range of 70 to 75% and a 190 basis point improvement sequentially, consistent with our seasonal utilization patterns. Growth remains healthy across the franchise. Sales were up 9% year-to-date and adjusted PFOs increased 1%. and up 4% excluding participating contracts, reflecting growth in both national accounts and regional business. Turn to RAS, adjusted earnings were $377 million, up 2% year over year, driven by favorable recurring interest margins and volume growth, partially offset by lower variable investment income. Total investment spread was 97 basis points in the second quarter, below our guidance range of 100 to 120 basis points, driven by weaker private equity returns within VII. While core spread excluding VII was 100 basis points, up five basis points sequentially, reflecting the benefit of asset deployment along with improved real estate equity income. RAS continues to benefit from the strength of its origination platform. RAS adjusted PFOs, excluding pension risk transfers, were up 19%, driven by strong growth in UK longevity reinsurance and structured settlements. Retained liability exposures grew 3% year over year at the low end of our 2026 outlook range, consistent with our expectation that growth would build over the year. Importantly, even with a lighter PRT market in the first half of 2026, the team has continued to advance other sources of growth across the platform. UK-funded REIT is a strong example. It underscores our ability to leverage existing capabilities, develop new solutions, and create attractive growth opportunities even when certain markets become more limited. Asia adjusted earnings were $420 million, up 21% and 25% on a constant currency basis. Results reflect strength across the business, supported by favorable equity markets, higher variable investment income, and continued volume growth. Asia's key top-line growth metrics continued their strong momentum in Q2. General account assets under management at amortized costs were up 6% on a constant currency basis. Sales rose 17% on a constant currency basis, fueled by equity market tailwinds in Korea plus traction from recent product launches. In Japan, sales increased 2% year-over-year against a strong prior year comparison and 13% sequentially. Taken together, these results reinforce our confidence in Asia's long-term growth trajectory and the strength of our franchise across the region. Latin America delivered adjusted earnings of $268 million, up 15% year-over-year, or 4% on a constant currency basis. Results were driven by strong volume growth as well as favorable market factors, including an elevated incaje return of 5.6% in the second quarter and lower taxes. This was partially offset by the impact of the Mexico VAT change. Topline momentum remained strong with sales up 9% on a constant currency basis and adjusted PFOs up 16% or 6% on a constant currency basis. Growth was broad-based across the region led by Brazil, Mexico, and Chile. And we continue to see attractive growth opportunities across the region supported by strong distribution capabilities, favorable product demand, and the increasing reach of our MetLife accelerator platform. Amiya delivered adjusted earnings of $108 million, up 8% year-over-year, or 11% on a constant currency basis. Results were driven by strong volume growth, partially offset by higher expenses in the quarter. Amiya's top line remained strong, with adjusted PFOs up 12%, supported by ongoing sales momentum and solid renewal activity across the region. Sales increased 15% on a constant currency basis. and many more. Momentum is building across the platform, and as integration benefits continue to emerge, we expect adjusted earnings to maintain their upward trajectory through the second half of the year. Total AUM increased $12 billion sequentially to $748 billion at June 30th, including a notable $7 billion increase in institutional client AUM. This growth combined with a 410 basis point improvement in operating margin during the quarter positions MIM to deliver full-year adjusted earnings within its guidance range of $240 to $280 million, though likely toward the low end. We remain confident in the sustained success of this business, and our 2027 guidance remains intact. Corporella reported an adjusted loss of $160 million in the second quarter compared with a loss of $142 million a year ago. The year-over-year change primarily reflected foregone earnings from the prior year strategic reinsurance transactions and market-related employee costs. These impacts were partly offset by favorable life underwriting margins. And the company's effective tax rate on adjusted earnings in the quarter was 23%, below our 2026 guidance range of 24 to 26%. Now moving to page 5, pre-tax variable investment income was $231 million in the second quarter of 2026. Results were below the implied quarterly run rate, primarily reflecting lower private equity returns, with an average return of 0.8% and real estate and other funds average returns of 1.1%. As a reminder, private equity and real estate and other funds are reported on a one-quarter lag and accounted for on a mark-to-market basis. Looking ahead, we expect stronger private equity returns in the third quarter, particularly from our venture capital investments, supported by elevated IPO activity and higher public market valuations. On page six, we show post-tax VII by segment and corporate another for the past five quarters. The majority of our VII assets are concentrated in Asia and RAS and corporate another, consistent with the long duration nature of these obligations. While VII can vary from quarter to quarter, we manage the business for normalized returns over time and remain comfortable with our full-year outlook. Now turning to expenses on page 7. Our direct expense ratio is 12.1% in Q2 of 26. This compares with 11.7% for both the full year 2025 and the second quarter of last year. Strong PFO growth and continued expense discipline enabled us to absorb the previously disclosed roughly 50 basis point impact from the Pine Bridge acquisition. We manage expenses on a full year basis and remain confident in our ability to beat our 2026 target of 12.1%. Our consistent expense execution continues to be a MetLife differentiator, reinforcing the durability of our earnings and our ability to invest in growth while delivering on our financial commitments. Moving to slide eight, MetLife continues to operate from a position of strong capital and robust liquidity. As of June 30th, cash and liquid assets at the holding companies totaled $3.4 billion within our $3 to $4 billion target cash buffer. In the second quarter, we returned approximately $1.1 billion to shareholders, including approximately $700 million of share repurchases. We also repurchased approximately $225 million of additional shares in July. These actions underscore the confidence in MetLife's earnings power, the strength of our balance sheet, and our ability to generate durable free cash flow over time. For our U.S. companies, we estimate total statutory adjusted capital on an NAIC basis of approximately $16.4 billion as of June 30, 2026, up 1% from March 31, 2026. Finally, in Japan, we now expect our initial economic solvency ratio, or ESR, to be at the top end of a 170 to 190% range for the fiscal year ended March 31st, 2026, up from our prior expectation of middle of the range. While results will vary year to year, we are comfortable managing ESR anywhere within this range. In summary, MetLife delivered an excellent second quarter. We generated strong and broad-based growth, produced attractive returns, maintained disciplined expense management, and continued to deploy capital from a position of strength. Just as importantly, these results were driven by performance across the enterprise, demonstrating the quality, resilience, and diversification of our earnings. As we move forward, we remain focused on executing our new frontier strategy, delivering on our commitments, and creating long-term value for our shareholders. and with that I'll turn the call back to the operator for your questions.
Operator
We will now begin the question and answer session. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 to raise your hand and to withdraw your question, press star 1 again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question for optimum sound quality and if muted locally, remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Ryan Krueger with KBW. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Ryan Krueger
Analyst, KBW
Hey, thanks. Good morning. My first question was on inorganic opportunities. You mentioned that in the prepared remarks, you know, if it adds value and strategic fit. I guess maybe just could you give an update on What areas of the company at this point in time, based on your business portfolio, would be potential areas you'd be interested in adding to if something comes about?
Michel
President & Chief Executive Officer
Sure. Good morning, Ryan. Thanks for the question. It's Michel. So first, what I will say is that nothing has really changed for us in terms of our M&A philosophy and approach. We've always viewed M&A as a strategic capability. and to your direct question, I've talked in the past about two areas where potentially we would be likely to consider M&A and those are asset management and group. Let me start with group. I would say that whereas we don't see any gaps in terms of our Thank you very much. You've seen us over the last few years add pet insurance, for example, Vision. More recently, we've added an identity theft product to our offering. So we're always open to considering new capabilities or solutions, if that made sense. Although, as I said, we don't see any gaps in terms of our offering. The more likely area, I would say, is asset management. And you saw us do the Pinebridge Investments deal Thank you very much. and elsewhere, I would say we're going to remain opportunistic outside of these two areas. I would also point out that we have a history of being very disciplined with capital deployment and M&A and we have a high bar to clear to ensure that we create long-term value for our shareholders.
Ryan Krueger
Analyst, KBW
Thank you. Then I had a question on group life. Mortality has been favorable for both MetLife and the industry for the last couple of years now. Do you think if this continues, there'll be any need to pass through some of this favorability to customers through pricing actions? Or do you see it as if the mortality remains favorable, you can continue to maintain price?
Ramy
Head of Group Benefits
Good morning, Ryan. It's Ramy here. Maybe let me just spend a minute to talk about the quarter, and then I'll get to your question on pricing. We've been seeing favorability in mortality for a number of quarters right now. Now, this quarter in particular, we saw about two points of favorability that came from a combination of prior period development, as well as below expectations in terms of severity of claims. So think about those two points as being, we expect those to normalize as we go forward. And there's early evidence of that if you look at our July numbers. So I just want to make sure you look at this quarter in perspective and expect moderation for the rest of the year. Now, to your question, if I think about the overall results and I think about the go-forward trend here, should we see this favorability continue in mortality? You would think that... Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Pablo Singzon with JP Morgan. Your line is open. Please go ahead. If you are muted locally, please be sure to unmute and proceed with your question.
Pablo Singzon
Analyst, JPMorgan
Hi. Good morning. The first question I had is, I noted that you mentioned working-age mortality is a driver of good group life. Can you talk about mortality experience for other blocks of business that you have? So I'm thinking about individual life and corporate and other and PRT and RIS. I think those are older-age customers, but any sort of perspective, I really appreciate it. Thank you.
MetLife IR
Pablo, we're having a lot of interference on your question. Could you try to repeat it or see what's causing the impact?
Pablo Singzon
Analyst, JPMorgan
Yep, sorry about that. Is this better? Yes. Yep, all right. And I'll speak a little more slowly. So I noted that you mentioned working-age mortality is a driver of good group life results. Can you talk about the mortality experience for the other blocks of business you have? So I'm thinking about individualized and corporate, and then PRT and RIS. I think those are older-age customers, and maybe the experience is different, but any perspective there would be appreciated. Thanks.
Ramy
Head of Group Benefits
Pablo, it's Ramy here. It was still hard to hear, but I think you're asking about mortality beyond the group business and in particular how that's playing out in RAS. You know, I would say, think about the RIS population as being sitting largely older population, retiree population, and the improvements we're seeing in that population are very much in line with what we have baked into our expectations and reserves. And therefore, I think about the underwriting results in RIS emerging largely in line with our expectations there. I would note that if you look at the overall population data, The improvements in the working age populations have been a lot faster than the improvements in the above 65 population. So that dynamic is different between those two populations. And also the dynamic for us in terms of our results is how we're pricing and reserving. And RIS is very much performing in line with our pricing and reserving expectations.
John
Chief Financial Officer
I was just going to add something, Pablo. I think overall Just as we see, and obviously there's been quite a bit of multiple years of just change in mortality, we would argue in general that we've moved back to the trend line that we were on pre-COVID. But as Ramy said, we're seeing it drop more materially in the working age, less so in the retiree and older population. So overall, there's an improvement. I think it varies by age. by different age groups. But overall, we generally see us being back to the trend line of pre-COVID.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Sunit Kamath with Jeffries. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Sunit Kamath
Analyst, Jefferies
Okay, hopefully there's no interference on my end. So I wanted to go to the PRT market. A couple of companies so far this earnings season have been a little cautious about and many more.
Ramy
Head of Group Benefits
and many more. So, we're coming off a record year in 25. We sold close to $14 billion of PRTs that year with $12 billion coming in the fourth quarter. So, that just to emphasize the lumpiness of the activity here. Thank you very much. But I would say, you know, when you look at PRT, you always have to look at the macro picture and the macro picture is extremely positive. You've got $3 trillion of defined benefit pension assets with solid funding levels and a very compelling industrial logic for those corporates to offload that risk. And we are a leading player in that market and we will be a beneficiary of that. and the other point I would make with respect to PRT is the same trends that are playing out in the US market are also playing out in the UK market. and to Michel's point, we are diversified and we're able to find other pockets of growth and that's exactly what we've done so far this year. We've written more than a billion dollars of UK funded reinsurance year to date. Think of that as PRT but in the form of reinsurance and that's been done at attractive returns and that's contributing to our growth here. So if you look at all of all of RIS, you know, we're pretty confident that we're going to be within our retained balance growth of three to five percent for the full year, reflecting just the power of of the franchise and the product portfolio that we have.
Sunit Kamath
Analyst, Jefferies
Okay, that's helpful. Thanks. And then I wanted to pivot to Japan. It just seems like there's a lot going on there with the banks, the Condi issue, you know, yen and rate volatility issues. So there's a lot for the industry to deal with. But your sales seem to be steadily growing. So I was hoping to better understand what's different about your model. And does some of this, call it turmoil that's going on in Japan, give you the opportunity to lean in a little bit more? Thanks.
Lyndon
Head of Asia
Hey, Suneet, it's Lyndon here. So look, we're really pleased with the sales performance that we've seen all across Asia, not just in Japan. And if we look at Second quarter sales were up 17%, and year-to-date sales are up 19% year-over-year. So strong performance across all our franchises. And really what's driving it is, you know, we've seen really a sustained momentum this year, a payoff from a lot of actions we've taken. We have the scale and the diversification that we have in our distribution in pretty much all the markets, but particularly true in markets like Japan and Korea. We've got product innovation. You have strong product development, both in U.S. dollar as well as local currency products. In U.S. dollar, we're the first to market in those. And we really have strong execution excellence across all the markets. So it's the combination of all these three drivers that are really driving our success in Japan, but not just there, across all the markets. And you can see the results all across Asia. Thank you for joining us. But our sales through June have been strong, and if we go into July, that momentum is continuing. So we're really in a good position because of all these key drivers in the market, and I think that has really been the key to our success in the Asia story.
Sunit Kamath
Analyst, Jefferies
Okay, thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Tom Gallagher with Evercore. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Tom Gallagher
Analyst, Evercore
Good morning. Michelle, just wanted to come back to the M&A question for a minute. Heard your answers, asset management and group, adjacent businesses and group. On the remain opportunistic comment, though, I think there's some emerging market properties that we heard yesterday are going to become are available for sale. With Latin America, I think you've done two very successful deals in Latin America in the past. Would that be an interest if those opportunities present themselves?
Michel
President & Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Hey, Tom. Thanks for the question. We don't comment on market speculation, and we're not going to start now. Look, like I said, nothing has changed in terms of how we think about M&A here. We're always in the flow. There's hardly a deal that comes to market that doesn't come across Adora Whitaker's desk. So we have obviously good visibility in terms of what's happening. But I would emphasize that we are very, very disciplined when it comes to M&A. and you know like I said there's a high bar to clear here and we compare M&A to other potential uses of capital as well. So you know that's what I would say you know with regards to LATAM you know I would just add that you know we're really really pleased with our business in LATAM. I think Eric and his team have done really an outstanding job and continue to do so and you can see from our results that LATAM is very much on a path to generate a billion dollars in earnings this year which by the way is roughly double from pre-pandemic levels and you know this is being fueled by sustained growth there and you know whereas we're seeing growth across the region Our business in Brazil has been the fastest growing life insurer in that market in that country for several years now and is now contributing about 20% of overall time sales. So really pleased with the momentum there as well. So that's what I can offer.
Tom Gallagher
Analyst, Evercore
Okay, thanks for that, Michel. My follow-up is just kind of an interest rate question. Thank you.
John
Chief Financial Officer
Good morning, Tom. It's John. I'd say, broadly speaking, first of all, we think about ALM and risk management. And obviously, when we have the opportunity to reinvest, we leverage the collective power of all of our differentiated capabilities when it comes to investment capabilities. And so, I would just say everything's on the margin when it comes to things like that. There's no free lunch with just changing the portfolio. If I take RAS, we've talked about spreads being fairly stable. Part of that has to do with the diversification of the product mix that was referenced earlier. In In Japan, we have a real balanced portfolio between U.S. and yen now. So I just think those things are, there's no quick change that would ever occur. But over time, higher rates, as we talked about before, do provide a kind of positive momentum. Okay, thanks for that.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Wilma Birdis with Raymond James. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Wilma Birdis
Analyst, Raymond James
Hey, good morning. Could you just give your latest thinking on private equity? We saw that you trimmed the position a little bit in the last quarter, and it seems like you've been trimming it a little bit over the last several quarters. Is that how you see it? And could you talk about the rationale there? Thanks.
John
Chief Financial Officer
Good morning, John. I think we've referenced this before, and this has been kind of a multi-year journey for us, but the fact that we are in a relatively higher rate environment than where we were, let's say, several years ago, we've talked about the fact that over time we would probably see a a slightly lower allocation to PE, albeit we're still investing, but the runoff is probably faster than the contributions. And then you referenced in the first quarter, we were opportunistic. We saw an opportunity to do a sale, but also have the opportunity to continue to manage those funds for third parties and raise some additional capital around that. So I think all in all, the direction of travel is a modest decline over time on PPE, but that doesn't mean we're going to continue to invest in the space. It's just that given the seasoned portfolio we have and the diversification we have, we would expect distributions to outpace contributions.
Wilma Birdis
Analyst, Raymond James
Okay, thank you. And then is group PSO growth around 4%? I realize that's better than the industry, but is that where you want to be in the current environment, or do you have plans to accelerate it more towards the 7%? What does the current market look like for that, and what are the growth options? Thanks.
Ramy
Head of Group Benefits
Thank you, William. It's Ramy here. I would say just the headline here for group from a top-line perspective is we're seeing growth. Thank you so much for joining us. We continue to see rising participation rates within the employee population and continued double-digit growth in the voluntary suite of products. So all really solid top-line indicators. When it comes to the 4% to 7% range, think of that as a multi-year number. In any given year, we could be at the low end, high end of the range. There's timing of sales. There is jumbo sales, the size of the cases. We win and so on and so forth. So we're pleased with the growth and we're pleased to be in the range and we see really good momentum going forward here across all markets in this business.
Operator
Thank you very much. Your next question comes from the line of Joel Hurwitz with Dowling. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Joel Hurwitz
Analyst, Dowling & Partners
Hey, good morning. Ramy, could you just provide some color on the non-medical health experience in the quarter? How was dental and disability? And I guess PFML has been an area of focus with others. How was that experience for you guys in the quarter?
Ramy
Head of Group Benefits
Thanks, Joel. So maybe let me start with PFML. You know, the dynamics we've experienced this quarter very much followed what we discussed on our Q1 earnings call. As you may recall, the PFML products have a claim pattern where you have higher upfront claims that tend to normalize. Thank you very much. Thank you very much. and I would say this is not an accident. This is very intentional given the investments we're making in the business, the investments we're making from a data analytics, AI perspective that are driving improved recoveries here which is giving us positive results this quarter. and then maybe taking one last step back and look at the overall non-medical health ratio. Dental is exhibiting the normal seasonality here and that seasonality would point to a fact that the second half of the year would give us more favorable results and therefore more favorable non-medical health ratio in aggregate compared to the first half of the year. Hope that helps.
Joel Hurwitz
Analyst, Dowling & Partners
Okay, thank you. Yeah, that was helpful. And then one on Asia. So you've been highlighting AUM growth as a metric to focus on, and that's been strong. But curious on PFO growth, because that's been really strong for another quarter here. Any color on what's driving the reacceleration of PFO growth in Asia and the sustainability of that?
Lyndon
Head of Asia
Hey, Joel, it's Lyndon here. So yeah, Look, we are an AUM business. We're primarily focused on the retirement space. So a lot of our business ends up in the AUM. Thank you very much. So we'll start seeing PFOs sort of continue to grow, but really the bulk of our business continues to be AUM focused. So that is sort of the key driver behind our growth.
Joel Hurwitz
Analyst, Dowling & Partners
Gotcha. Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Wes Carmichael with Wells Fargo. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Wes Carmichael
Analyst, Wells Fargo
Hey, good morning. I just wanted to follow up on RIS, but base spread expanded five basis points sequentially, and I think that's probably a little bit better than expected headed into the quarter. So maybe as a follow-up on Tom's question, but with where rates are, fewer Fed cuts, belonging higher, how do you think about base spreads trending in the back half of the year?
John
Chief Financial Officer
Hey, good morning, Wes. It's John. As you recall, total spreads were 97 basis points, but that was a function of just a lower and weaker private equity returns that we referenced. But core spreads at 100 were at the top end, and we kind of created this new range of 95 to 100 previously. And we talked about asset deployment. We knew that was going to happen. We did see a little bit better improved real estate equity income in the quarter that is likely to probably seasonally reverse in the third quarter. So you know when we when we think about looking ahead we still think the 95 to 100 even with the rate environment and in a way we're positioned fairly well regardless of what happens with the curve you know we've been able to kind of put ourselves in a position where should the curve steepen or even stay flat we still think that 95 to 100 is a is a good baseline so if we had to kind of pick a point for the third quarter be more like the midpoint of the range at this point just because of the the seasonality of some of the real estate returns in 3Q.
Wes Carmichael
Analyst, Wells Fargo
Thanks, John. And just to follow up on group mortality, so very favorable results here to date. I think if I heard your comments and there's maybe a couple points of normalization, even if I include that in third and fourth quarter and then you have maybe two or three points below the low end of your range, so any help on You know, where you think that might come in for the back half of the year or the full year?
Ramy
Head of Group Benefits
Yeah, I mean, look, the ratio is always going to kind of fluctuate here, but I would say The most pronounced seasonality in the group mortality ratio typically occurs in Q1, which is a function of the severity of the flu season. So if current kind of trends continue, think about those normalization items that I've mentioned coming back and that would be a Thank you. Our last question comes from the line of Tracy Benjiji with Wolf Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Operator
Please ensure you are unmuted locally and proceed with your question
Operator
Looks like we've reached the end of our call. Thanks for participating, everybody, and have a great day. Thank you.
Operator
This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.