QTWO Q2 Holdings Inc
$64.73
Q2 Holdings Inc Q2 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Wednesday, July 29, 2026
AI Conference Call Analysis
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Conference Operator
Good afternoon. My name is Kevin and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Q2 Holdings second quarter 2026 financial results conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please raise your hand. If you have dialed into today's call, please press star nine to raise your hand and star six to unmute when called upon. I will now hand the conference over to Josh Yankovich, Investor Relations. Sir, please begin.
Josh Yankovich
Investor Relations
Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. With me on the call are Matt Flake, our CEO, and Jonathan Price, our CFO. This call contains forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, including, among other things, with respect to our expectations for the future operating and financial performance of Q2 Holdings and for the financial services industry. Actual results may differ materially from those contemplated by these forward-looking statements. and we can give no assurance that such expectations or any of our forward-looking statements will prove to be correct. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in the forward-looking statements are included in our periodic reports filed with the SEC, copies of which may be found on the Investor Relations section of our website, including our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the second quarter of 2026 and the press release distributed this afternoon and filed in our Form 8-K with the SEC regarding the financial results we will discuss today. Board of Trustees Meeting Board of Trustees Meeting and in our Form 8-K file today with the SEC. We have also published additional materials related to today's results on our Investor Relations website. Let me now turn the call over to Matt.
Matt Flake
CEO
Thanks, Josh, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. I'll start by sharing our second quarter results and highlights from across the business. I'll then hand the call over to Jonathan to discuss our financial results in more detail and provide our updated outlook for the remainder of the year. We delivered another strong quarter of execution, with financial results that reflect the continued strength of our subscription model, healthy demand for our mission-critical solutions, and the operating leverage we continue to build into the business. In the second quarter, we generated revenue of $219.8 million, representing 13% year-over-year growth. We also delivered adjusted EBITDA of $62.8 million, or 28.6% of revenue. and generated free cash flow of $51 million. Overall, we're pleased with the performance of the business through the first half of the year. We continue to see strong engagement from customers and prospects. We're executing well across our major product lines and we believe our platform strategy is becoming even more relevant as financial institutions look to modernize their technology, protect their customers and begin to leverage Q2 to adopt AI in practical and responsible ways. On the sales front, we had another strong bookings quarter highlighted by eight total tier one and enterprise wins across the portfolio. The quality and breadth of these wins were encouraging. We saw continued activity across digital banking, risk and fraud, and relationship pricing. There were a few specific themes that played out in the quarter, which I'll highlight briefly. First, we've talked about our land and expand model as a key part of our strategy. Because of the synergy, and breadth of our product portfolio today, we have multiple avenues to land a new customer and then expand their relationship with Q2 over time. In the second quarter, we signed a relationship pricing deal with a top 25 US bank that provides a powerful demonstration of this dynamic. This customer first signed for our small business and commercial digital banking capabilities in 2023. Last year, they signed an expansion for our risk and fraud products to protect their commercial customers. In the second quarter, after attending our client conference, they signed another significant expansion for our relationship pricing capabilities. In just three years, this bank has signed for three of our major product lines, illustrating the significant expansion potential that exists especially with these larger enterprise customers. We also view this particular deal as a strong example of the potential for synergy between commercial digital banking and the relationship pricing aspects of our solutions. Large, sophisticated commercial banks are increasingly looking to price both sides of the commercial balance sheet in a more integrated way, helping them improve profitability across loans, deposits, and fee-based products. And with our combined commercial capabilities, we believe we are uniquely equipped to help them compete for and retain commercial clients. Beyond relationship pricing, we continue to see M&A drive meaningful momentum for us in the quarter, which is the second theme I'll highlight. We've talked for years about banking sector M&A as an opportunity for Q2. Historically, that has often been because our customers have tended to be healthy, growth-oriented institutions that are on the acquiring side of transactions. During the quarter, we had a meaningful tier one win come from the opposite dynamic. In this case, a $2 billion asset size Q2 customer was acquired by a $9 billion bank. and the combined entity made the decision to adopt Q2 across the entire bank in an open, competitive evaluation that included the acquirer's incumbent solution and several others. Wins like this are impactful because they demonstrate the competitive strength of our digital banking solutions. It also shows why we have tended to benefit from M&A amongst our customer base. whether our customer is the acquirer or the acquired institution, Q2 is often in a strong position when the combined entity evaluates the technology needed to support the next phase of growth post acquisition. The M&A related win and the relationship pricing expansion are just two highlights from another strong quarter of Booking's performance. We continue to benefit from a healthy balance of new customer activity and expansion with existing customers. And we're excited about the momentum were carrying into the second half. Another major highlight from the quarter was Connect 26, our annual customer conference. This was our biggest conference yet, with record customer and prospect attendance. As always, the conference gave us a valuable opportunity to spend time with customers, prospects, and partners, hear directly about their priorities, and share the next phase of our product strategy. The customer engagement at Connect was very strong, and one of the clearest themes we saw was the demand for practical AI Not AI as a broad technology concept, but AI applied to real workflows and use cases that can help financial institutions operate more efficiently, differentiate their digital experiences, and better protect their customers. As we discussed last quarter, we believe Q2 has several key differentiators in the current wave of AI innovation, data, distribution, incumbency, and trust. Our platform sits in the flow of digital banking interactions, giving us deep banking-specific context that is difficult to replicate. We have an established customer and partner network that can consume AI capabilities as we deliver them. And importantly, our customers trust us to help them apply AI in a secure, compliant, and operationally sound way. At Connect, the customer conversations reinforce that our near-term AI product focus is aligned with the areas where financial institutions are actively looking for value, improving efficiency for bankers, helping customers and partners build and personalize digital experiences faster, and strengthening fraud protection. We showcased products tied directly to those priorities. First, we formally announced Q2 Assistant from the keynote stage. Q2 Assistant is designed to embed AI directly into the digital banking experience so bankers can use natural language to access information, navigate workflows, and ultimately operate more efficiently within the platform. The reception from customers was very strong. In fact, Q2 Assistant was the most frequently demoed item in our exhibit hall, which tells us customers are not just interested in AI in the abstract. They are looking for practical, trusted use cases that can create value inside their institutions. Second, we demoed Q2 Code from the keynote stage. Q2 Code is our AI-assisted development capability designed to help customers, partners, and Q2 teams build on our platform faster using natural language and the power of our SDK. The strategic point is that Q2 Code extends one of our core differentiators, the ability to tailor the platform via Q2 Innovation Studio. Customers already use Innovation Studio to extend their digital banking experiences, integrate partner capabilities and tailor the platform to their needs. Q2 Code is intended to make that process faster and accessible to more builders. They can add custom pages, change the look and feel of their experience, and build entirely new functionality through prompts. In our demos, the customer reaction was clear. They see the potential to move from idea to execution faster and ultimately deeply personalize and differentiate their digital experience with less friction in the build process. We are still early in this journey, but these are not just conceptual demos. Across our AI product set, these capabilities are either in production moving through early adopter were being implemented with customers today. And we're encouraged that customers are already moving from interest to action, signing on as early adopters in the weeks since Connect. The third major AI product we covered was in the fraud arena, which is one of the areas where we see some of the clearest near-term applications for AI. As we've discussed in recent quarters, the cost and complexity of fraud continues to increase across financial institutions. Today, fraud has become a continuous enterprise-wide challenge that spans retail, small business, and commercial banking, and it is driving increasing levels of attention and investment from our customers. We believe this is a large and growing opportunity for us. As fraud grows more complex and the stakes for financial institutions rise, Our view is that financial institutions will look for a platform that sits at the center of the digital banking experience, with the data, the distribution, and the trust to act in real time. That is precisely where Q2 sits, and it is why we believe fraud is one of the most compelling growth opportunities in our portfolio. At Connect, we shared our latest fraud strategy and product developments, including our work around account takeover. I want to highlight this area because it demonstrates why we believe Q2 is well positioned to help financial institutions address the growing fraud challenge. Because our digital banking platform sits inside the flow of activity, we have the visibility into behavioral signals and user interactions as they happen. Our new account takeover product uses AI to continuously monitor those signals and interactions, identify signs of compromise, and intervene in real time. The customer response was extremely positive. Today, we already have had double-digit customers sign up for the new account takeover product, and we're encouraged by the traction this product is already getting with customers. More broadly, we believe fraud will remain one of the most important investment priorities for financial institutions. The threat environment and vendor landscape are evolving quickly, and customers are looking for trusted partners who can help them simplify their technology while improving protection. We believe Q2 can play that role because of the breadth of our broad solutions, our innovation studio ecosystem, and the central position our platform holds in the digital banking experience. Stepping back from the individual product areas, the overall customer sentiment at Connect was very positive. There was clear excitement around AI, and we saw customers move from asking whether AI matters to asking how they can adopt it responsibly and where it can create the most value. That is an important shift. At the same time, our customers were very clear that their traditional priorities remain front and center. They need to grow and retain deposits. They need to protect against fraud. They need to drive engagement. They need to operate more efficiently. and they need technology partners who can help them do all of that in a secure, scalable and compliant way. That is why we feel good about our position. The areas where customers are investing, digital banking, fraud, commercial growth, platform extensibility and practical AI are all areas where Q2 has built meaningful capability and differentiation. When you combine our strong second quarter execution with the quality of our bookings activity and the customer engagement we saw at Connect, We feel good about our momentum as we enter the second half of the year. Our pipeline remains healthy, including opportunities in larger enterprise and Tier 1 accounts, and we continue to see solid demand across digital banking, relationship pricing, and risk and fraud. We're pleased with where we stand against our financial expectations for the year, and Jonathan will discuss our annual guidance for 2026 in more detail. With that, I'll hand the call over to Jonathan.
Jonathan Price
CFO
Thanks, Matt. We are pleased to report another quarter of strong financial performance, with second quarter results above the high end of our guidance on both revenue and adjusted EBITDA. We also delivered record results across gross margin and adjusted EBITDA, and we retired our last tranche of convertible notes in June. Let me start by discussing our financial results in more detail, and I'll finish with our updated third quarter and full year 2026 guidance. Total revenue for the second quarter was $219.8 million, an increase of 13% year-over-year and 2% sequentially. Our revenue growth was driven by subscription-based revenues, which grew 15% year-over-year and 2% sequentially, and ended the quarter at 83% of total revenue. The year-over-year and sequential revenue growth was primarily driven by a combination of new customer go-lives and expansion with existing customers. Total non-subscription revenues were roughly flat year over year, as growth in transactional revenue was largely offset by ongoing pressure in more discretionary professional services offerings. Consistent with our outlook at the beginning of the year, we continue to expect ongoing pressure in our discretionary services revenue, and this is contemplated in the updated guidance I will walk through shortly. Total annualized recurring revenue, or total ARR, grew to $971 million, up 13% year-over-year from $861 million at the end of the second quarter of 2025, and up 3% sequentially from $945 million at the end of the first quarter. Our subscription ARR grew to $826 million, up 15% from $716 million in the prior year period, with growth benefiting in part from a favorable comparison to the second quarter of 2025. Our year-over-year subscription ARR growth was largely driven by bookings from new customer wins as well as expansion with existing customers. Our total ARR growth remains below subscription ARR growth, driven by the trends we've previously discussed related to non-subscription-based revenue. Our ending backlog of $2.8 billion increased by $22 million sequentially, or 1%, and increased $404 million year-over-year, representing 17% growth. The year-over-year and sequential increases were driven by booking success across new, expansion, and renewal activity. Non-GAAP gross margin was 62.3% for the second quarter, up approximately 480 basis points from 57.5% in the prior year period, and up approximately 20 basis points from 62.1% in the prior quarter. The year-over-year improvement continues to reflect the completion of our cloud migration earlier this year. In addition, the year-over-year and sequential improvement in gross margin was driven by the continued shift in our revenue mix towards higher margin subscription revenue. Total non-GAAP operating expenses for the second quarter were $81.7 million, or 37.2% of revenue, compared to $74.5 million, or 38.2% of revenue in the second quarter of 2025, and $81.7 million, or 37.7% of revenue in the prior quarter. The year over year increase in operating expenses was driven primarily by higher R&D personnel costs to support our continued product and AI investment. Sequentially, total operating expenses were essentially flat as higher sales and marketing costs from our annual client conference were offset by lower payroll taxes associated with equity vesting and bonus payments relative to the first quarter. Total adjusted EBITDA was a record $62.8 million in the second quarter, up 37% from $45.8 million in the prior year period, and up 5% from $60 million in the prior quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 28.6%, expanding approximately 510 basis points from 23.5% in the prior year quarter and up approximately 80 basis points from 27.7% compared to the first quarter of 2026. The year-over-year and sequential improvement was driven by strong revenue growth and gross margin expansion, partially offset by higher operating expenses. We ended the quarter with cash, cash equivalents and investments of $106 million, down from $379 million at the end of the prior quarter. The decline in cash was driven by two significant uses of capital in the quarter. The repayment of our 2026 convertible notes at maturity in the amount of $304 million and $23 million in share repurchases that occurred during the quarter. We generated cash flow from operations of $61 million in the second quarter, driven by profitability growth and solid working capital management, and delivered $51 million of free cash flow. With the retirement of our convertible notes, we ended the quarter debt-free. Combined with our continued strong free cash flow generation, we believe this gives us substantial balancing capacity and flexibility in how we allocate capital going forward. I also want to provide an update on our share repurchase program. As of the end of the second quarter, we had repurchased approximately $125 million of our stock under our existing $150 million authorization announced in November 2025, with approximately $25 million remaining under the program. Today, I am pleased to announce that our board of directors has approved up to an additional $350 million of share repurchases, which brings our total available repurchase capacity to approximately $375 million. This authorization reflects our confidence in the long-term value of our business and our commitment to allocating capital to deliver shareholder value. We remain focused on maintaining a healthy balance sheet and preserving flexibility to support organic investment, inorganic opportunities as they arise, and a patient and disciplined approach to share repurchases. Let me finish by sharing our third quarter and updated full-year 2026 guidance. We forecast third quarter revenue in the range of $218.5 million to $222.5 million, and full year 2026 revenue in the range of $881 million to $886 million, representing year-over-year growth of approximately 11%. We are also raising our subscription revenue growth expectation for full year 2026 to approximately 14.5%, up from our previous expectation of 14%, reflecting the strength of our year-to-date bookings and first half subscription revenue performance. We forecast third quarter adjusted EBITDA in the range of $58.5 to $61.5 million, and full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $244 to $248 million. representing approximately 28% of revenue. In summary, we delivered another record quarter of revenue and adjusted EBITDA with both finishing above the high end of our guidance. This performance coupled with our outlook for the remainder of the year has given us the confidence to raise our full year guidance on both revenue and adjusted EBITDA for 2026. We intend to continue to execute on our profitable growth strategy by balancing investments to sustain durable subscription revenue growth and drive operating leverage over time while prioritizing effective and opportunistic capital allocation from a position of financial strength. We believe that our results to date illustrate our progress and potential as we continue to evolve our business and drive shareholder value. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Matt for his closing remarks.
Matt Flake
CEO
Thanks, Jonathan. To wrap up, we're pleased with our second quarter results and the momentum we've built through the first half of the year. We delivered strong financial performance, continued to execute across our major product lines, and saw healthy demand from both new and existing customers. We believe our bookings performance in the quarter, including eight total tier one enterprise wins, reinforces the value of our platform and the breadth of opportunity we have across digital banking, relationship pricing, and fraud. Connect26 also gave us a clear view into what our customers are prioritizing. They are focused on growing and retaining deposits, protecting their customers from fraud, operating more efficiently, and investing in AI in practical, secure, and compliant ways. Those priorities align directly with the areas where we have and continue to build meaningful capabilities and differentiation. As we enter the second half of the year, our pipeline remains healthy, customer engagement remains strong, and we feel good about our ability to continue executing against our strategy. With that, operator, we're ready to open the call for questions.
Kevin
Conference Operator
We will now begin the question and answer session. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you would like to ask a question, again, please raise your hand now. If you have dialed into today's call, please press star 9 to raise your hand, star 6 to unmute. Please stand by as we compile the Q&A roster. And your first question comes from the line of Alex Sklar with Raymond James. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Alex Sklar
Analyst, Raymond James
Thank you. Matt, maybe first one for you. As you bring more agentic solutions to market, particularly on the fraud side, and you talked about your core digital banking customers seeing the roadmap with areas like Q2 Code and Assistant. Can you talk about how that's catalyzed any change in those core digital banking cross-sell opportunities between commercial and consumer or just win rates broadly?
Matt Flake
CEO
Thanks, Alex. As I talked about it when we talked to the customers at Connect, what was interesting was how they're leaning on us and looking to us to provide AI solutions. As the trusted partner of theirs, it is something that is creating opportunities. We talked about the lines that formed around our code assistant and Thank you for joining us. make their bankers more productive, and then ultimately personalize these experiences for different initiatives that they have for whether it's commercial or retail customers. So not ready to roll out the financial gain from these products, but the energy and the excitement around it is going to add a lot to cross-selling with existing customers. And I think it's also going to help us win a lot of net new deals because there's not a lot of All right, great, Matt. Well, I guess more to look out for there. Jonathan, maybe a follow-up for you.
Alex Sklar
Analyst, Raymond James
completed the cloud migration earlier this year. I know you've talked about kind of a multi-year optimization opportunity, but now with kind of six months under your belt, maybe just update us on what you see as far as the subscription gross margin opportunity over the next couple of years. Thanks.
Jonathan Price
CFO
Thanks, Alex. Yeah, look, I mean, we're continuing to operate in this new environment and we're pleased with the progress we've made to date and learning and understanding how to operate. I won't say optimal yet, but certainly more effectively than at the beginning. And, you know, when I think about the roadmap for subscription gross margins, obviously, from a total revenue perspective, we continue to expect the mix to increase towards subscription. So from a total gross margin perspective, that's definitely going to have Robert Seale, Robert Seale, Robert Seale, We feel good about the direction we're going. Obviously, this year was the big step function that we talked about leading into 2026. And so now we just got to keep executing against these other initiatives. But so far, so good in terms of how we're operating post-cloud migration.
Alex Sklar
Analyst, Raymond James
All right, great. Thank you both. Congrats on the quarter. Thanks, Alex.
Kevin
Conference Operator
And your next question comes from the line of Andrew Schmidt with KeyBank. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Andrew Schmidt
Analyst, KeyBank
Hey, Matt. Hey, Jonathan. Thanks for taking the question here and Good results. I want to just ask a question on the environment. A big question we had heading into earnings was just on sort of budget shifts and priority detraction and things like that. Obviously, look, it looks like you guys demand, if anything, is strengthening. So it doesn't seem like you've seen that. But maybe talk a little bit about prioritization when it comes to spend and whether there have been any budget shifts that are pertinent. You're picking up more sort of distractions when it comes to sort of AI implementation, things like that. Thanks so much.
Matt Flake
CEO
Yeah, Andrew. I mean, the AI stuff is... Interesting to talk about with the prospects that are out there and the customers. But as I said in the script, at the conference, they want more commercial functionality. It could be bulk wires. It could be ERP integration. It could be a broader entitlements engine. So that's what's driving their business now, the commercial customers getting those deposits, the fees they can generate off of those. And that's driving a lot of the demand for us. Also, Fraud is clearly a hot topic for them, and it's prevalent everywhere, whether it's in-person social fraud that's occurring when they're using people to manipulate it or actually transactions where somebody does account takeover. So those are big topics. Clearly, relationship pricing, pricing these relationships is more complicated when rates are where they are and the different dynamics that are out there, relationship pricing. was the bell of the ball this quarter. And then Innovation Studio, being able to bring a lot of the new innovation that's coming from startups that have features or products are a big part of this. So the technology spin, it feels like, is going from leaving the back office, general ledger, kind of run the bank stuff to change the bank, and we're at the center of that. And that's what the opportunity has been for us, and that's why we continue to see this demand environment that we've seen, and we continue to do well in it.
Andrew Schmidt
Analyst, KeyBank
That makes sense, Matt. That's very encouraging. Appreciate that. The other encouraging thing that I picked up was just the sort of the pent-up demand around some of the AI products, particularly P2 Assist, et cetera. Maybe just help us, you know, GA timing, time to revenue, those sorts of things. And obviously, look, you're right. I mean, the core solutions are what's key, but obviously these are important to sort of You know, potential 2027, 2028 beyond revenue contribution. So maybe just anything on sort of GA time to revenue and then pipeline and AI SKUs more broadly would be great. Thanks so much.
Matt Flake
CEO
All right. Well, so on the EA side, I think we'll be in general availability for those products in the fourth quarter and The number and all that, the revenue is going to come through. We would like to get another quarter or two before we start sharing how that's going to flow through the P&L, but as we talked about, we have double-digit... People in EAs right now for the fraud product and single digits on code and assistance. So that number should be growing. We're going to be patient. You know, you got to get it right early and then you can have, it'll proliferate throughout the rest of the customers. But right now, there's, There's lines forming. We've just got to make sure we get it right and get the products up and doing what they say they're going to do.
Jonathan Price
CFO
And Andrew, on the time-to-revenue question, it's still early. We're experimenting in EA, and the good news of having double-digit customers already on the fraud side is we can start to see what delivery will look like at scale and make sure that our time-to-revenue assumptions make sense as you think about scaling this product. and the others over the course of time. So what I can say for certain now is the delivery timeline and the conversion to revenue will be materially faster than, let's say, a digital banking implementation or a relationship pricing implementation, more akin to some of our cross products, if not faster. But it's too early for us to lock in on an exact time to revenue guidance for you all here. But we hope to have a lot of clarity on that as we get through the rest of the year.
Andrew Schmidt
Analyst, KeyBank
Very helpful. Thank you. Congrats on the results. Appreciate it.
Kevin
Conference Operator
Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Ella Smith with J.P. Morgan. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Ella Smith
Analyst, J.P. Morgan
Good evening. Thank you for taking my question. Thank you so much for having me.
Jonathan Price
CFO
Thanks, Ella. A couple of things I'll point out on this. I mentioned this in the script, but strong first half on a subs ARR across the portfolio, but in particular, the second quarter did benefit from a favorable comp. It's worth noting that if you back out some of the dynamics from Q2 of 2025, it's very similar to what Q1 would have looked like in terms of subs ARR growth from a year-over-year perspective. Q1 and Q2, even though you saw some acceleration in Q2 and were pleased about that, there was a benefit there given what Q2 of 2025 included last year. When it comes to your rights, certainly this quarter we had strong success when it comes to the relationship pricing side of the business and some large bookings there. Robert Seale, Adam Blue, Himagiri Mukkamala Thank you for watching.
Ella Smith
Analyst, J.P. Morgan
Very clear. Thank you. And for a follow-up, digital banking implementations have historically been lengthy and complex. Do you see a realistic path to using AI to meaningfully compress implementation timelines, taking weeks or even months off the process over the next few years? Or do you view the nature of the work as largely outside of the scope of what AI can address?
Matt Flake
CEO
Yeah, I would say that what we've seen, and we've talked about this before, is that the The customers sign up for an implementation that's either nine or 12 months, depending on the size of the financial institution, could be six. And that's the timeline they have for that project. What we're trying to do first is to make our teams more efficient. So if they carry three projects at a time, they can carry four or five. And then ultimately, some of that work should translate to making it easier for the financial institution to implement it. It's still early. We're widely using AI within our delivery teams now. Thank you so much. Thank you. And your next question comes from Terry Tillman with Truist. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Terry Tillman
Analyst, Truist
Hey, Terry. Yeah, can you hear me okay?
Matt Flake
CEO
Loud and clear.
Terry Tillman
Analyst, Truist
Wonderful. Hey, Matt, Jonathan, and Josh, thanks for taking my question and follow-up as well. Matt, I think the quote was bell of the ball for relationship pricing. You did mention it a bunch, but you did also talk about risk and fraud a bunch too, even in the press release. I'm just curious, and I get a lot of questions on this. I mean, it's a very topical area. You know, anything more you can share in terms of, or peel back the onion in terms of Is the risk and fraud business something that's going to well outgrow your subscription overall revenue growth for some time? And just kind of where do you think you are in terms of like innings in terms of monetizing the set of products there within your installed base? And then I had a follow up.
Jonathan Price
CFO
Yeah, Terry, maybe I'll take that one. I mean, certainly when you take the fraud portfolio overall, it is growing at a premium to the total of the business. And we think there's an opportunity for that to be true for years to come, especially when you think about the new fraud AI products that we just talked about at length with UAM, obviously early days there, but feel really good about that opportunity and the durability of it and the runway ahead. So from a fraud perspective, definitely think there's an accretive growth story there.
Matt Flake
CEO
Also, Terry, I mean, the fraudsters are unfortunately innovating as well. So this has got a long tail to it. We've got to continue to compete with the weapon and bring a shield, and then they bring a new weapon. We've got to develop a new shield, and it's kind of never-ending. So that's unfortunate, but that is what it is.
Terry Tillman
Analyst, Truist
Understood. Good point on that. And I guess to follow up, Matt, you actually had, and I think it was in your prepared remarks, synergies between commercial banking and relationship pricing. I know there's a lot more to relationship pricing than just like loan books and just pricing on loans. You know, you did call that out. Are the synergies going to help just drive more relationship pricing and upselling there? Or does it actually go the other way sometimes now with these synergies and it's driving even more commercial banking transactions or upselling? Thank you.
Matt Flake
CEO
Terrence, good question. I don't have all the data in front of me, but I would probably say that we're having more success selling relationship pricing to an existing commercial customer. But I think they're beginning to see some opportunities because we're developing a deeper relationship with these customers on both sides, and they begin to trust us, understand the quality of work that we do, that we're a client-first company. And so those are creating more opportunities for us as financial institutions look to consolidate the number of vendors that they work with. And the breadth of our products suite is something that our customer success team does a fantastic job of going out and making sure in strategic conversations with them that they understand all that we offer. So right now I'd say it's more relationship pricing being sold to our commercial customers, but we'd like to see more of those relationship pricing customers by commercial. Now keep in mind, those are some of the, you know, I think we have nine of the 14 largest banks in North America. So those would take some time, but we're working those angles as well.
Terry Tillman
Analyst, Truist
All right.
Matt Flake
CEO
Thank you. Thanks, sir.
Kevin
Conference Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Parker Lane with Stiefel. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Parker Lane
Analyst, Stiefel
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the questions this afternoon. Maybe sticking with risk and fraud. Obviously, the opportunity is huge here, and it's increasingly a big priority for your end markets. I was just wondering if you can comment on not just the opportunity growing, but your own competitiveness in this market. If you compared win rates today to maybe a couple of years ago, have those meaningfully improved as well? And if so, can you talk to some of the advantages of of working with Q2 for the full suite, including risk and fraud versus multiple vendors there.
Matt Flake
CEO
Yeah, Parker, I don't have the win rates here, but I would think they would be up year over year for the last couple of years just because of the innovation and the progress we've made there. The real value prop is when you have a single platform for retail, small business, and corporate banking, you have all the data and then you have it's all in one place and you can use that data to identify behaviors of people that how they act, how they react when they log in, who they pay, when they pay, how often they pay, the Fed district they pay. You can begin to use that data to your advantage to notice behaviors that fall outside of that. So for us, it's the advantages with the single platform. We're able to look at all that data comprehensively and provide solutions that stop the fraud based on not just did they enter the login ID and password, but do their behaviors match how they normally behaved. as opposed to fraudsters. So it's a huge advantage for us. And I think it's why you see us differentiating ourselves and the sales organization and the success organization or lead on the front foot when we're selling fraud products because we're extremely confident in our capabilities.
Parker Lane
Analyst, Stiefel
Appreciate that, Matt. And Jonathan, one for you, looking at the subscription revenue outlook, I think it ticked off 50 bits, 27 unchanged. Seems like renewal, cross-sale going very well. Maybe you could provide some color on what you're seeing from a net new perspective and how your confidence has built in the outlook for that piece of the business for the balance of 26 and 27.
Jonathan Price
CFO
Yeah, I mean, obviously pleased with the execution year to date. And as we continue to look in the back half, the opportunity on that new independent of what looks great in terms of the opportunity, obviously still on cross and renewals is very large and skews more to the tier one and enterprise space like similar to the mix we saw last year. And so obviously we got to go execute. Thank you for joining us. Thank you for joining us. Big part of the story as we enter 2027 because that can be a huge contributor on the cross and expansion side.
Parker Lane
Analyst, Stiefel
Got it. Appreciate the feedback. Thanks, Parker.
Kevin
Conference Operator
And your next question comes from Matt VanVleet with Cantor Fitzgerald. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Matt VanVleet
Analyst, Cantor Fitzgerald
Good afternoon, guys. Thanks for taking the question. I guess Following on a couple of these others, but as you look at the cross-sell pipeline ahead of you, and Matt, you mentioned customer engagement continues to improve. I guess if you had to stack rank where the opportunities are going ahead between expanding digital banking footprints, selling in some of this relationship pricing, but then also including things like Innovation Studio and some of these AI SKUs, Where should we expect the most movement in terms of revenue growth over the next couple of years and how might that dynamic change as you look out five plus years from here?
Matt Flake
CEO
Well, five years, Matt. I don't know if I can do that. But I will tell you that I will say that it's a tough question to answer, which is probably a good question. But I was with a bank a couple of weeks ago that is running our commercial product, and they're running a legacy product for retail. And they just said, it's so frustrating for our commercial customer that uses our retail platform because the commercial product is so much easier to use than the retail platform. We just need to switch and get it all on a single platform. There's opportunities like that all over in our customer base, especially in the upper end of tier one and enterprise where we can go cross sell those products. Then you get into the fraud conversation. and you talk about what I said earlier about the power of the single platform in the fraud business. Relationship pricing, clearly we're beginning to show a lot of success there. Innovation Studio is an endless opportunity with our customers with more than 200 partners in there. And then you add in our growing confidence in our AI capabilities and our AI products, there's a lot there. I would probably think that fraud, Innovation Studio and our AI products will Certainly have a very long tail on them, as I said earlier. But digital banking, we're adding new deals every quarter, and some of them are buying one aspect of the product rather than the commercial or retail. So there's just a lot of opportunity in the breadth of products that we're rolling out. And our focus on customer experience seems to be a big differentiator for us.
Matt VanVleet
Analyst, Cantor Fitzgerald
Very helpful. And then Jonathan, on the margin expansion, obviously continues to be very strong here, but you highlighted, you know, OpEx continuing to grow. Obviously the business is growing and that's a requirement, but how should we think about the pace of OpEx growth over the next couple of years? Are there any major sort of step function investments you feel like are needed or have you made a lot of those? And a lot of the internal efficiencies you're growing could see, you know, Robert Seale, Robert Seale, Robert Seale
Jonathan Price
CFO
As you step forward beyond 2026, I would continue to lean on our long-term framework, which we still have conviction in. Obviously, with the outperformance this year, the bar is higher, but we feel good about the continued opportunities. Obviously, there is a new, I'll just call it, line item in the P&L when it comes to AI-related infrastructure costs and token costs and the like. When I think about the guidance we have for the rest of 2026 and how we're thinking about planning for 2027, We think we have a pretty good handle on that incremental spend relative to obviously a couple of years ago where it didn't exist. So right now, we're just focused heads down executing and think there continues to be a margin expansion story here. And obviously, the investments that you've talked about just now that we continue to make even here heavily in the third and fourth quarter of 26th, We think are foundational to continuing this subscription growth trajectory that we're on. So we're kind of trying to do both concurrently and we feel good about that path. So wouldn't add anything quantifiably beyond 26 other than what's already out there in terms of the long term framework, though. Very great. Thank you. Thanks, Matt. Thanks, Matt.
Kevin
Conference Operator
And your next question comes from Dan Perlin with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Dan Perlin
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets
Hey guys, good evening. Great quarter and congrats on repaying the convert. I'm sure that was a huge burden to get rid of. You know, Jonathan, I actually wanted to follow up on exactly what you just said about token costs and understanding the dynamics about how that might play through over the course of the next 12, 18, maybe 24 months. So like, maybe can you just talk about how you've gotten comfortable with that? What the model looks like? I'm assuming it's token plus a margin. Token Cost Plus some sort of margin, but just anything you could provide there as we think about that part of the business ramping. It feels like it's a sizable blind spot for a lot of clients also, but at the same time, you guys can maybe provide some scale to those clients and therefore it's a huge benefit to them. So just any of those dynamics would be helpful.
Jonathan Price
CFO
Yeah, it sounds like you're talking about the cost structure of the external products. Most of what I was referring to in the prior answer was really about our cost internally when it comes to everything we're doing with AI, including building those external products. In terms of how we're managing the cost structure, again, we're in EA on the three that we've announced and talked about. We think we have the proper guardrails in place in terms of and the ability to throttle token utilization embedded in the product. And we have a pricing scheme that will manage that. Internally, we're very, very focused on model management and enablement of the organization to optimize for things like caching and effective prompting, ultimately to just bend the curve of what we've seen throughout the Adam Blue, Himagiri Mukkamala customers as they use those external products that will be in a healthy place. But especially on the external side, we're still very much testing this in the EA phase.
Dan Perlin
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets
Yeah, no, that's really helpful. Thanks for that clarification. Just a follow up. It's a little maybe a little bit more of a one off in a lot of ways. But, you know, there's so much demand that you constantly have been talking about. So this isn't like the only quarter. It's been several quarters now for some time. And I'm just wondering, like, is the go to market motion for the team and like the sales force efficiency? Are they running hot? and to the point where you need more potentially out of them and therefore you might need to expand? Or are you comfortable with the team you got on the field to get you to kind of the growth goals that you've provided to the street? But at the same time, if you gave a little bit more, would you be able to throttle up that revenue growth and maybe arc it up as we go into 27? Thanks.
Matt Flake
CEO
Yeah, Dan, I think we've got good coverage ratios where they come in. It's And also remember, as I talked about earlier, it's not just digital banking, it's relationship pricing, fraud, Innovation Studio, the AI products. I feel good about the coverage we have right now based on the number of deals we're doing and coverage. But if we see, and as you said, this has been multiple quarters and we continue to deliver, but more sales reps doesn't always solve the problem. It's Thanks, guys. I appreciate it. Thanks.
Kevin
Conference Operator
The next question is from Michael Infante with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Michael Infante
Analyst, Morgan Stanley
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to piggyback on Parker's question earlier, mainly because if I carry forward that low 20s net new subs ARR range from the first half throughout the balance of the year, I think I get subs ARR sort of exiting 26 at or above 870, which is around sub 12% growth. So I guess The question is, just given your reiteration of 27, are you implicitly saying and or expect that the back half from a net new perspective will accelerate? And how should we be thinking about the key drivers of that?
Jonathan Price
CFO
Robert Seale, Adam Blue, Himagiri Mukkamala You've got to remember, in the Q3 and Q4 periods, A, we have tougher comps than we faced, especially in the second quarter, but even all of the first half. But we also expect a higher mix of these larger Tier 1 and Enterprise deals. So we definitely think we're going to, assuming we execute on the bookings front, that we're going to be in a good position vis-a-vis that 27 goal, and obviously all hands on deck to meet or exceed that. But when we think about sort of Where we were from a subs ARR perspective, call it this time a year ago, you can kind of see the leading indicator is telling you what that means for subs growth here in the back half of 26. And we'll see where subs ARR comes in based on our bookings. To your right, the incremental subs dollars that we deliver here in the Q3 and Q4 timeframe. But, you know, the baseline is going up. The law of large numbers is present. And so we got to execute at a higher and higher level as time goes on. And so that's why we go back to all of these other products. We have the cross sale opportunity, the continued execution on the net new front, because, you know, we sort of have to see that success on all those dimensions to continue seeing this business grow at the levels that we've talked about and higher. So hopefully that adds to your question, Michael. Let me know if there's any any follow up there.
Michael Infante
Analyst, Morgan Stanley
No, it does, and it makes sense in relation to the slope of net new last year in the back half as well. Just the second one, you sort of alluded to it being early in terms of you internally sort of figuring out some of these optimization dynamics on the actual compute costs, but have you sort of learned anything incrementally as it relates to the gross margin profile of some of this AI-delivered functionality? Do you expect it'll be Robert Seale, Robert Seale, Robert Seale, a model routing perspective in some of your internal sort of ML use cases. How are you sort of thinking about it early days?
Jonathan Price
CFO
Yeah, I mean, you framed up all of the work we're doing. It's a difficult question to answer today, not just because it's early adopter, but because it may vary wildly by product. And then the question then becomes what products scale up that ultimately become meaningful revenue contributors. And then it may be accretive or dilutive to gross margin accordingly. So it's a pretty difficult question to answer right now, given where we are on all three of them. I can tell you when it comes to all the AI usage internally and managing that, not only optimizing for where it falls on the P&L between cost of goods sold and primarily R&D, but OpEx otherwise, we're doing a lot of work there. And then we're being thoughtful around how do we make sure that we're using the right model and the right level of spend for the right use case? Because in the early days, there wasn't a lot of management around that, admittedly. And so Now, as these numbers are getting larger and larger, making sure that we're being thoughtful about it and working with the teams around the ROI when we think about how much we spend to deliver a certain outcome. It's just a muscle we're building in real time, and that's going to be a big part of our journey here over the next, for sure, six to 12 months.
Michael Infante
Analyst, Morgan Stanley
Thanks, Jonathan.
Jonathan Price
CFO
Thanks, Michael.
Kevin
Conference Operator
And your next question comes from Chris Kennedy with William Blair. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Chris Kennedy
Analyst, William Blair
Thank you. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. Last quarter, you talked about a large fraud deal being larger than a digital bank customer win. Can you just provide a little bit more perspective on your relationship pricing business, you know, the size of those types of contracts, especially as you have a lot of momentum today?
Jonathan Price
CFO
Yeah, I mean, maybe use the example that was cited in the script. When we think about that top 25 bank, you would look like a very large tier one digital banking deal. I mean, obviously that's a big institution, so it's a good example of one that should naturally be large. But like Matt said earlier, when you have nine of the top 15 banks for that product, it skews to the enterprise banks and it skews to higher ASPs. So when you're asking about relationship pricing, obviously it's a top heavy product in terms of the customer base, but that also means from an ASP perspective, it's going to be representative of
Chris Kennedy
Analyst, William Blair
Thank you for that. And then now that the balance sheet is in a really good position, can you just remind us of kind of capital allocation priorities and kind of build partner versus buy, especially with Innovation Studio partners? Thank you.
Jonathan Price
CFO
Thank you for joining us. Thank you for joining us. So that's an example of us reinvesting back in the business to elongate this growth curve. And then when it comes to M&A, we think now with the debt paid off and the free cash flow generation, as you've seen, we haven't done deals and it's been over five years since we've done anything. So we're not going to do deals for the sake of doing deals, but we certainly have the capacity and the ability to be opportunistic now when the time comes. So long-winded answer, but the reality is it's all three of those things that we're going to be able to optimize for now going forward. Thank you. Thank you Chris. Thanks Chris.