REPX Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.

AMEX
$40.12

Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript

AI Conference Call Analysis

Sign in or subscribe to read.
Conference Operator
Operator
Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us and welcome to Riley Permian, Inc.'s third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. I will now hand the conference over to Ben McQueen, VP Strategy and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Ben McQueen
VP of Strategy and Investor Relations
Good morning. Welcome to our conference call covering our third quarter 2026 results. I'm Ben McQueen, VP of Strategy and Investor Relations. Joining me today are Bobby Riley, Chairman and CEO, John Suter, COO, and Philip Riley, CFO. Yesterday we published a variety of materials which can be found on our website under the Investors section. These materials in today's conference call contain certain projections and other forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Potential drilling locations that will be discussed are based on management's internal estimates and are not proved reserves. As of today no proved reserves have been attributed to these locations. Whether and when they are drilled will depend on several factors including commodity prices, capital availability, Thank you, Ben.
Bobby Riley
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
The third quarter was an exciting quarter for Riley Permian as we continue to execute on the development program we have discussed throughout the year. Much of the activity completed earlier in 2026 translated into production during the third quarter, resulting in the significant step up in volumes we had anticipated. Oil production averaged over 25,000 barrels per day An increase of 20% from the second quarter and 38% from a year ago. Total production increased 23% sequentially to approximately 42,000 BOE per day. Importantly, we delivered that growth despite wells turned to sales coming in below the low end of our guidance range. Those results reinforce our confidence in both quality of our asset base and our ability to execute our development program efficiently. One area that I want to spend some time on today is an additional resource opportunity we have been evaluating at Red Lake. To date, our development activity at Red Lake has primarily focused on the paddock and blind brief formations, part of the YASO package. We are now preparing to expand that activity into the San Andreas. The San Andreas itself is not a new development target for the region and has been productive for many years. What we are evaluating is the opportunity to apply horizontal development across our existing acreage, consistent with how we develop the other formations across our assets. Over the past year, our technical team has been assessing the potential of the San Andreas across our acreage. That work has included extensive geological and reservoir analysis along with evaluating recent industry activity in the San Andres across and around our position. We believe that combination of internal technical work and encouraging industry results has given us conviction to begin allocating capital to the San Andreas with initial development planned for the second quarter of 2027 and initial production results later in the year. The San Andreas potentially provides approximately 90 additional net development locations across our acreage. Importantly, These additional locations are within the acreage we already own, adding potential inventory without incremental acquisition cost. Our current plan includes six San Andreas Wells during 2027, which should allow us to begin evaluating the opportunity through our own development results. Additionally, the infrastructure environment in New Mexico has materially improved. The Water Bridge Water Handling Agreement went into service in September and the new Targa Gathering and High Pressure Trunk Line System was placed in service in October. Together, these projects provide additional water handling capacity and gas flow assurance to support increased development in our New Mexico acreage. That progress is important as we move into the next phase of our development plan. Over the past several years we have significantly expanded our inventory position while investing in the infrastructure necessary to support a large development program. During 2026, we increased activity and the benefits of that development program became evident in our production results. As we enter 2027, we believe we are positioned to continue that progression. While we are not providing formal 2027 guidance today, I do want to provide an early preview of our plans for next year. We expect to add a second rig during the fourth quarter of 2026 and operate two rigs for a portion of the quarter, positioning us to carry that activity level into 2027. Based on prevailing commodity prices and market conditions, We plan to run two rigs throughout 2027. As always, we will continue to monitor the environment and retain the flexibility to adjust any activity as conditions warrant. Our planned activity includes the development across both of our core assets. At Red Lake, the improved infrastructure backdrop allows us to increase development activity across the paddock and blind breach, while beginning initial development of the San Andreas. At Champions, we expect to continue developing the remaining high-quality inventory that has continued to generate strong results. Based on this planned activity, we expect another year of meaningful production growth. While our 2027 planning process is still ongoing, Our current outlook is for oil and total production growth of 30% to 40% year over year. We expect to provide formal 2027 guidance in March of 2027. We're excited about the progress we made this quarter, and more importantly, the position we have built heading into 2027. I want to thank our employees for their continued hard work and execution. We have asked a lot of the team this year as we have increased activity and grown the business and they have continued to deliver. I'll now turn the call over to John.
John Suter
Chief Operating Officer
Thank you, Bobby, and good morning. I'll cover our third quarter operational results, progress across Champions and Red Lake, and the work underway as we move through the fourth quarter and into 2027. As always, I'll begin with safety. Safe and reliable execution remains the foundation of how we operate, particularly as we manage a larger development program and growing infrastructure footprint. During the third quarter, we reported a total recordable incident rate of zero and delivered 95% safe days. During the third quarter, we drilled 13 gross or 8.6 net operated wells, completed 9 gross or 7.9 net wells, and turned 12 gross or 11.9 net wells to sales. All the wells turned to sales during the quarter were in Texas. Year-to-date, we've drilled 54 gross operated wells, completed 40, and turned 35 to sales. Thank you for joining us. Thank you. Thank you. Oil production increased 30% to 6.9 thousand barrels per day, despite no new wells being turned to sales during the first nine months of the year. The increase at Red Lake primarily reflects the return to more normal operations following the third-party midstream constraints we experienced during the second quarter. Last quarter, we said the June exit rate provided a better indication of our second half starting point than the second quarter average. Third quarter results support that view, as shut-in volumes returned and Texas swells completed earlier in the year contributed to production. The growth reflected multiple factors, including restored production, new Texas wells, and continued optimization of the existing asset base. Our Yoakum County asset remained the primary driver of development and production growth during the quarter. We turned 12 gross wells to sales in Texas, compared to seven gross wells completed during the period, as activity completed earlier in the year converted to production. That is an important part of the story. During the first half of the year, we invested in drilling, completions, facilities, and takeaway capacity to support a higher pace of development. Much of that work began translating into production. Champion's high working interest, established operating footprint, and more mature infrastructure continue to give us flexibility in how we sequence activity and respond to changing conditions. During the quarter, we also selected a number of Champion's wells for targeted chemical treatments. at Red Lake, Our focus during the quarter was on preparing the asset for increased completion and development activity. Importantly, oil production also continued to recover from the second quarter midstream constraints, increasing approximately 30% sequentially despite no new wells being turned to sales. During the quarter, we drilled eight gross New Mexico wells and completed two but did not turn any new Red Lake wells to sales. That sequencing was intentional. As discussed last quarter, we've been coordinating completion activity with the availability of gas, water, power and supporting field infrastructure. We made important progress on those infrastructure needs during the quarter and shortly thereafter. Water Bridge began supporting the development program in mid-September, and Targa began taking volumes on its new high-pressure line in October. With that additional takeaway capacity now available, we have secured a full-time frat crew and begun working through the New Mexico duck inventory while continuing to drill new wells. This increased completion activity will contribute to higher capital spending in the fourth quarter, with the production impact expected to begin toward the end of the quarter and continue into the first quarter of 2027. On water, the water bridge arrangement provides additional disposal capacity to support increased development. While third party disposal carries a higher cost than our own system, we believe that incremental cost is a favorable tradeoff for the additional capacity and development flexibility it provides. We're also continuing to invest in company operated water infrastructure, including additional saltwater disposal capacity, gathering lines, pumping capacity, automation, Our objective is to utilize a combination of company-operated and third-party capacity to provide a flexible and reliable water system as development activity and produced water volumes increase at Red Lake. Looking ahead, our priorities remain straightforward. First, we will continue to operate safely and maintain the discipline required to manage a higher level of activity. In Texas, we will continue converting the investments already made into production while addressing the oil, gas, and water infrastructure needed to support the current development pace. In New Mexico, We will begin to see the impact of the duck inventory as gas and water takeaway systems are now operationally ready. The sequencing is deliberate. We began completing our ducks immediately after Targa and Waterbridge commenced initial operations. That production impact will begin to be seen toward the end of Q4 2026 and into Q1 2027 as those wells are turned to sales. Finally, we are preparing for a larger 2027 operating program. The third quarter demonstrated what the business can deliver as operational constraints ease and prior capital begins converting into production. Looking forward, we're preparing for a two-rig development program and further infrastructure buildouts that will accommodate Our focus from here is execution, maintaining safe operations, bringing infrastructure online, converting ducks efficiently, and ensuring that capital translates into production and cash flow as quickly as practical. I'll now turn the call to Philip.
Philip Riley
Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, John. Cash flow from operations was $111 million. 75% higher than in the second quarter or $222 million year-to-date, 50% higher than the same nine-month period in 2025. Third quarter, accrual CapEx decreased 39% quarter-over-quarter to $53 million, mostly in tandem with the decline in DNC activity. Cash CapEx was $66 million as payments for second quarter's higher activity flowed through the third quarter. Accrual CapEx is $187 million and Cash CapEx is $165 million. We paid $8.4 million in dividends during the quarter and we had zero buybacks. With excess cash, we reduced debt by $28 million to $245 million. Quarter-end total shares outstanding, including unvested shares, were $22.2 million. Year-over-year, debt is down by 35% and shares outstanding have increased by less than 1%. Subsequent quarter end, we drew on a revolver to retire our 10.5% senior notes at par for zero net change in debt balance. We estimate approximately $5 million in annual interest expense savings. Last week, we completed an amendment to our credit facility, upsizing the borrowing base and elected commitments to $450 million, allowing for $205 million of undrawn liquidity. We also extended the maturity to October 2030. Stepping back, We've demonstrated that growth and financial discipline are not mutually exclusive. Over a three-year period, we've increased oil production by more than 80%, while reducing total debt by nearly 40%, and limiting shared account growth to 10%. We're scaling the business while improving the balance sheet and managing dilution. Now a few comments on forward guidance and capital allocation. Bobby and John described the additional activity for the fourth quarter. That drives an increase in capex for the full year relative to previous guidance. We forecast a small amount of incremental production volumes in the fourth quarter, while added volumes should materialize more meaningfully in the first and second quarters of 2027. Additionally, while annual results remain an important measure of performance, given the pace and timing of our growth, we're increasingly focused on the progression of the business from quarter to quarter. In periods where capital investment precedes the associated production, calendar year comparisons do not fully capture that growth trajectory. We've added several new charts on pages 11 and 12 of our investor presentation that shows this actual and forecasted progression on a rolling quarterly basis, and we think they tell a compelling story. As we think about capital allocation, we're focused on creating long-term value on a per share basis. We have a deep inventory of attractive development opportunities, and under current market conditions, we believe investing in that inventory is our most compelling use of capital. At the same time, we'll retain flexibility with the pace of investment. As Bobby mentioned, we'll evaluate against commodity prices, the broader market and economic backdrop, full cycle project returns, and our balance sheet goals. Our objective is to fund the development program from internally generated cash flow while maintaining a strong balance sheet. And importantly, that flexibility does not necessarily mean giving up the growth already underway. A significant amount of capital has already been invested ahead of the associated production response. Even in a meaningfully lower commodity price environment, we believe we could materially reduce CapEx while continuing to grow production into the middle of next year. Thank you all for your attention today and for your interest in our company. Operator, you may now turn it over for questions.
Conference Operator
Operator
Question and Answer Session Your first question comes from the line of Derek Whitfield with Texas Capital Bank. Your line is open, please go ahead.
Derek Whitfield
Analyst, Texas Capital Bank
Thanks and good morning and thanks for taking my questions and also thanks for the early outlook on 2027. With respect to your outlook, there's seemingly a disconnect this morning in the value of your growth trajectory in both the 70 and $90 scenario. As it relates to your CapEx assumptions, Could you speak to what you've embedded in the estimates from an activity and inflation perspective and if you've embedded any efficiency gains in those projections?
Conference Operator
Operator
Moment, please. We are experiencing technical difficulties. Hold while we work to fix that.
Philip Riley
Chief Financial Officer
Okay. I'm going to keep going here. Yeah, so we've got the second rig. We've got that contracted with some good flexibility. Only about a quarter of the year is contracted, so that's a small amount out of the total. Fract crews should be coming in as well. But as we think about the different prices, we've shown you an illustrative range here of 70 to 90. Currently, we're above 90 in the market, right about there. We show very material growth there. at that level. That corresponds to what Bobby was describing as that kind of 30% to 40% year-over-year growth. You can see it on a sequential quarterly basis. And then down at 70, we just show an illustrative range of what we think we could do. That grows pretty meaningfully through the second quarter of next year and then slows down moderately. Both of those are just illustrative. We've still got to finish that off with our board. And then like Bobby said, we'll come back in March and give you... More confirmed guidance. Very quickly on the efficiencies. We're really going to be in conservative here on how we're modeling that. We hope to realize some, but haven't relied on it too much. And then inflation, we're assuming a modest amount of inflation, some of which we're seeing in the tangibles, maybe 10% or so. And I think some of that's obvious. You've heard it from others, Derek. The casing, the diesel, some of the chemicals and such. Anything else I'm missing, John?
John Suter
Chief Operating Officer
Yeah. No, I think you fit it right on the head. 10% built into our cost forecast. But really, we believe we're offsetting any kind of cost increase from diesel and casing with various things where other synergies that we're doing. So we think that we are actually realizing a net effect of zero for inflation. And as you mentioned, we're only contracted for about 25% of the wells we plan on drilling next year and only about 10% of the completions that we'll So we have a tremendous amount of flexibility to deal with various market conditions or any kind of results we might see. So great amount of flexibility.
Derek Whitfield
Analyst, Texas Capital Bank
Great. So definitely tremendous flexibility, very conservative assumptions. Maybe shifting over to the stand injuries with my follow-up. Clearly an important interval for you guys as you think about the resource expansion opportunity given the growth outlook. I guess based on your extensive review of the subsurface and industry results, could you speak to how the interval compares to the Blundberry and Paddock intervals and what you're expecting from an EUR and cost perspective?
John Suter
Chief Operating Officer
Yeah, so, you know, we view this as just an additional interview interval within a co-developed multiple bench resource. So, the paddock and blindberry are still going to be the foundation of the development. The San Andreas is just slightly shallower, but Again, allows us that benefit of using existing infrastructure that we already control and doing this on acreage that we already have. So it's a big benefit. We were going to start full field development. We were a year ago or so building that infrastructure so that we would be ready. And we knew this was already a target for and just decided that it would be so much easier to co-develop it with the YASO. And so that's the path our technical team started studying and then got to the point where we feel comfortable adding these potential locations. I don't believe we're ready yet to talk about EURs. But again, we feel comfortable with our experience and champions with the San Andreas. This is 80 miles away and same zone, but there's always still differences in rock quality and things we want to investigate with our own program. But we're excited about what we've seen so far from public data and Our view of industry activity within our own fairway. So feel really good about it.
Derek Whitfield
Analyst, Texas Capital Bank
Fair enough. It seems very encouraging. Thanks for your time.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Neil Dingman with William Blair. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Neal Dingmann
Analyst, William Blair
Morning, Bobby and team. And Bobby, I just want to say that I think this plan, ops plan of yours makes total sense here. My question is around the plan as well as sort of derogation. Can you remind me, you know, with this two-rig consistent plan, how many wells we're talking about you might be able to knock out in, I don't know, a year or so? And I think you mentioned this earlier, but I'm assuming now you believe you'll have more than ample takeaway for this type of growth.
Bobby Riley
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, we will. Let me get the number that we're looking at right now.
Philip Riley
Chief Financial Officer
On a net basis, it's about 90, 90 wells or less. Okay.
Bobby Riley
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
but you're right, the takeaway allows us to get this program underway so we're pretty excited about it.
Neal Dingmann
Analyst, William Blair
And if I could ask one more on that one, will the two rigs remain in kind of the same focused areas or how much will you move those two rigs around?
John Suter
Chief Operating Officer
Yeah, in general, we'll have one rig in Champions and then one rig moving over to New Mexico and It'll probably move over there about in late first quarter, I would say. We want to really focus on completing our ducks in New Mexico first. That will allow us to increase production there and start filling our infrastructure as we get a little bit ahead in champions and then move back over and start handling some of these ducks large multi-well pads in New Mexico.
Neal Dingmann
Analyst, William Blair
Got it. And then second, if I could, just on the expansion initiatives across the Red Lake asset, could you talk about, I really think there's some interesting upside there. Could one of you all talk about just, you know, the various upside? Are you talking about just the one incremental formation or, you know, how much inventory upside could we be referring to?
John Suter
Chief Operating Officer
From an inventory standpoint, you know, we're going to be drilling the paddock blindberry. And as we get it permitted, the San Andres, we have, you know, initially put 90 net wells out there for the San Andres. Thank you for joining us. You know, again, with some pretty decent sized pads. And, you know, as you've noticed, our production is occasionally comes on in waves. But when you do some of these larger pads of six, seven, eight wells. Again, you have to wait until all those wells get fracked, all those wells get drilled out before you actually bring on that pad. Especially in New Mexico, I think you're going to see, again, it be coming on in waves. We're already starting completion of ducts. We just finished fracking about our first 10 of the 24 New Mexico ducts. And again, we'll start soon drilling those out. And then there's usually a bit of a flowback period before you get stronger oil and gas. And so that's why, even though we've already started, you won't see any decent impact from those particular wells until early January.
Neal Dingmann
Analyst, William Blair
Perfect. Thank you all.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Robertson with Water Tower Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Thank you, good morning.
Jeff Robertson
Analyst, Water Tower Research
John, on the San Andreas, how much do you still need to understand with respect to how best to complete horizontal wells in the zone in Red Lake?
John Suter
Chief Operating Officer
Yeah, I think we've learned quite a bit in Champions about the San Andreas in general. You know, but there are still differences in reservoir character. The particular depletion history in New Mexico may be slightly different than Texas fluid properties. So we'll have to zoom in on our completions and learn from these wells. Obviously, we will use that champion's experience to start with, but then we'll be tweaking as we go to
Jeff Robertson
Analyst, Water Tower Research
Do you think that the best approach will be to co-develop the San Andreas with the Blindberry and Paddock on pads?
John Suter
Chief Operating Officer
Oh, absolutely. We want to... Even though they are separated geologically with a barrier in between, we just want to make sure that all of our frack energy is contained in the San Andres as we complete it, as well as our other intervals. So it makes so much more sense to co-develop those. You'll get the best frack job in each interval. If you think about rig moves costing $100,000, $150,000 per rig move, every time we stay on one pad and avoid a rig move, we're doing zipper fracking, again, for that best frack possible. It just really starts adding up to a lot of money besides just the technical applications.
Jeff Robertson
Analyst, Water Tower Research
Thank you.
Conference Operator
Operator
As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad now to raise your hand. Your next question comes from the line of Nicholas Pope with Roth Capital Partners. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Nicholas Pope
Analyst, Roth Capital Partners
Good morning, everyone. Good morning. Curious question. It took all the fun geology questions. I'm curious with the startup of the gathering of midstream assets and this contract with WaterBridge for water handling, what that means for the trajectory for operating and gathering costs going forward over the next year as you kind of expand and grow production? I mean, is there going to be a meaningful difference Current unit rates on production?
John Suter
Chief Operating Officer
No, I don't think so. On the gas side, it should be similar. On water, there certainly is an increased cost when going to Waterbridge. Again, we view that as a favorable trade-off to, even though that costs a little bit more money, it allows us to develop at our own pace. Not to worry about that. We don't have to sequence things quite as much as we used to because we have that capacity now. But we also work hard to give Waterbridge the minimum that we have to and fully use our own saltwater disposal system just because it's a substantially less expensive from those investments that we've made in the past. We look at that as really kind of a combined rate in our own head of fully utilizing our own and then giving the excess to Waterbridge.
Philip Riley
Chief Financial Officer
I'll just follow up. Back on the target line, we've always said this is primarily about flow assurance. And so that's what's manifesting or allowing this increase in activity for John's operations here. At the same time, we do hope to get better NGL yields. So this will be much newer equipment and plants it'll be running through. We think that ultimately shows up in better NGL yield and those command the Thank you for joining us. Residue Gas Line egress that improved Waha there and allowed us to absorb the fees with the gas and the NGL both. Gas prices are volatile, as you know. They're looking decent at the moment, weaker again next summer, and that probably will continue to be volatile.
Nicholas Pope
Analyst, Roth Capital Partners
Yeah, I appreciate that. If we could dig a little bit more into the new inventory and What y'all are looking at with San Andres. The 90 wells that y'all are looking at that you're adding to potential inventory is, I guess, what are the criteria and how y'all are defining what you're comfortable adding into inventory? Is it just proximity to near-term drilling and plants that you have on the deeper formations? More curious, I guess, how y'all judged the criteria to kind of tentatively add that into anything.
John Suter
Chief Operating Officer
Yeah, so let me preface that with just saying, you know, look, our team did a significant amount of technical work over the past year. Everything from geologic reservoir analysis, again, looking at the legacy vertical production depletion, looking at recent horizontal activity. So there was a lot of work put into that, you know, especially oil in place mapping was a significant. I'd say the oil in place mapping and depletion were kind of significant things that helped us figure out where to attack first, looking at some of your best opportunities first. and then you're exactly right, proximity to known resource starting with a conservative spacing of four wells per section. We think that's the key is basically starting with close proximity Knowing what your technical information is leading you towards. And then let our own performance on our own operated wells kind of help dictate how and where we accelerate the program to.
Nicholas Pope
Analyst, Roth Capital Partners
Got it. That's very helpful. Fun stuff. Appreciate the time. Thank you.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Robertson with Water Tower Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Jeff Robertson
Analyst, Water Tower Research
Thank you. A question on the production profile. As Red Lake becomes a bigger part of Riley's mix, will that have an impact on the production mix between oil, gas, and NGLs?
Philip Riley
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, it might be a little bit gassier. I think at the moment Red Lake is gassier as a function of it being older. A larger amount of the mix is some of the old legacy vertical wells. New wells are going to be oilier, and so that generally will make that field itself oilier. As for the overall corporate mix, it might get slightly oilier there, but not a material amount, Jeff. This is still an oily field, oil-driven play, and economics will continue to be oil-driven with oil revenue.
Jeff Robertson
Analyst, Water Tower Research
Philip, on oil revenue, can you talk a little bit about how you're thinking about hedging volumes? I know the hedged volumes based on the preview outlook you have for 2027 goes down pretty significantly from what has been hedged in 2026.
Philip Riley
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, with hedging, we begin with the lens of risk management, and that is a function of what our capital structure looks like and what our capital obligations are. If we Look back 18 months ago, we were sitting here telling you how we were buying an acquisition with 100% debt, tightening our belt to get that done. And at the same time, we had this large nine-figure deal Thank you very much. Trying to be careful not to speculate. I think we're quite hedged at the moment. For the coming remaining months of the year, we're a little under 60%. First quarter, it's looking, you know, plus or minus 50% of total volumes there. And then, yes, does decline through the year, as you know, pretty materially there. When you compare us to others, I think we're very much in line. We're going to be more hedged further out on... 12 to 18 months versus the large caps versus small caps, I think, were very similar. But what I'd end with here is that it continues to be a very volatile world. Look at the last 24 hours. The front month, we still have quite a bit of backwardation over a three- to five-year period. So we want to be careful not to lock in too much. You can't hedge... Service costs. Typically, you can't hedge your LOE and your capital costs, and so we want to be mindful to be ultimately price takers on our revenue and match that with our costs and capital. Thank you.
Conference Operator
Operator
We've reached the end of the Q&A session. This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.