SUZ Suzano S.A.
$8.11
Suzano S.A. Q2 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Thursday, August 13, 2026
AI Conference Call Analysis
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Conference Call Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for holding and welcome to Suzana's conference call to discuss the results of the second quarter of 2026. We would like to inform that all participants will be in a listen-only mode during the presentation that will be addressed by the CEO, Mr. Beto Abreu, and other executive officers. This call will be presented in English with simultaneous translation to Portuguese. To change the audio, you can press the globe icon on the lower right side of your Zoom screen and then choose the Enter the Portuguese Room. After that, you can select Mute Original Audio. Before proceeding, please be aware that any forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Susana's management and on information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions because they relate to the future events and therefore depend on the circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. You should understand that general economic conditions, industrial conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Suzano and could cause results different materially from those expressed in such far-looking statements. Now, I will turn the conference over to Mr. Beto Abreu. Please, you may begin your presentation.
Beto Abreu
Chief Executive Officer
Hi, everyone. Thank you for attending our second quarter result call. I want to start with the highlights of the following three points. The first one, we reported solid operation results with a strong free cash flow. Once again, showing resilience of the business, even with a more volatile geopolitical conditions. The second point that I also would like to highlight is that on July 1st we had the ABEX closing, fully aligned with what we had previously expected in terms of timeline. The governance and the management team is already 100% in place and now we will focus on the integration and on capturing efficiency gains of this new organization. The third point, I also would like to say that Susana will keep the focus on reducing the TOD, the Total Operational Disbursing, and of course on deleveraging the business. I also want to take the opportunity to say that today is the last call for Aries Galhardo, our vice president for the industry operation and also engineering. Aries is leaving a legacy of major achievements of Suzano. and we all want to wish him every success in his next journey. So thank you very much, Aires. On the next call, we will also have, we already have Carlos Anibal as the company's industrial engineering executive vice president. Carlos has been with us for 23 years already. has previously held the roles of paper business vice president, commercial vice president, and also a forestry vice president. So huge experience in many areas of the company. And he has been both a supplier and a customer to the industrial area. So we wish him great success in his new cycle. Very welcome, Carlos. Having said that, I will turn over to Fabio to talk about the paper business.
Fabio
Executive Vice President, Paper Business
Thanks, Beto. Good morning, everyone. Please let's turn to the next slide. Our second quarter performance reflected higher sales volumes and prices, as well as lower SG&A on a quarter-over-quarter basis. These positive factors were offset by inflationary pressures on wood and oil-related products and logistics, as well as longer-than-expected ramp-ups following our annual maintenance downtime in Pine Bluff Mill. Looking at our addressable markets in Brazil, print and write demand, according to IBA, remained stable in the second quarter compared to the same period of last year. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the 4% growth was driven by seasonality and higher demand for quoted papers, benefiting from increased promotional and communication-related activity ahead of this year's elections. On such contexts, SUSANO domestic print and write volumes grew 4% on a year-over-year basis and 10% on a quarter-over-quarter basis. In the export markets, print and write demand declined 4% year-over-year in the U.S. and Europe, according to PPVC. Latin America showed stability, led by an increase in participation of Asian players in the region. Now looking at paper board, Demanding Brazil grew 8% in the second quarter when compared to the same period of last year and grew 11% against the first quarter. We noticed some customer inventory build up in the first half of the year, ahead of the implementation of paper board price increases. Against this backdrop, SUSANO domestic paper board volumes grew 11% on a year-over-year basis and 28% on a quarter-over-quarter basis. In the U.S., according to FP&A's data, SBS shipments grew by 11% year-over-year, Albeit at an operating rate around 82%, which is softer year-over-year and stable quarter-over-quarter. Adjusting for recent capacity closure of Smurfit West Rock Latuk Mill, Clearwater Cypress Bend capacity reduction, and the interruption of operations at the Nippondine Wave Facility, operating rates increased to 90% and should support better market dynamics in the second half of the year. Our Suzano packaging sales volumes were quite stable on quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year basis. Turning to the EBITDA performance, our Brazilian operations improved 28% on a quarter-over-quarter basis, with higher volumes and better prices domestically and from our exports, despite unfavorable FX. Compared to second quarter 2025, the EBITDA from our Brazilian operations declined 20% due to lower price, export volumes, and FX. Suzano Packaging EBITDA was impacted by the scheduled maintenance outage in May and operational instability returning from the outage, as well as increased costs due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, especially in oil-related inputs, mainly resins and logistics. Looking ahead to Suzano's paper packaging business performance, sales volumes from Brazilian operations tend to improve across both domestic and export markets, giving historical seasonality for the quarter. In the U.S., we start Q3 with a strong order book with improvements and supply and demand dynamics. We remain focused on managing inflationary pressures related to the Middle East conflict, mailing and resin, and logistics. Through initiatives already implemented or currently underway, we expect to mitigate most of these impacts going forward. Now I'll hand over to Leo, who will be presenting our pop business results.
Léo
Executive Vice President, Pulp Business
Thanks Fabio and good morning everyone. Let me highlight the main developments in our pool business unit during Q2 2026 and share our outlook ahead. Q2 was marked by different dynamics in pulp markets. In Europe and North America, pulp demand recurrently outperformed expectations supported by stronger paper production due to war-related effects and inventory replenishments across the value chain as customers aimed to get ahead of expected cost increases. These factors led to consistent month-over-month increases in pulp prices during the quarter. In China, the narrowing softwood hardwood price spread and the high availability of softwood pulp at Chinese ports weighed on purchasing activity from paper producers. Despite solid paper production, higher wood costs impacted integrated local producers and a greater clarity around the delayed startup of Okichumil. This unfavorable backdrop, driven primarily by software dynamics, affected the broader pulp market and led to hardwood pulp price concessions towards the quarter end. Even at lower prices, customer purchasing activity remained subdued in June. At Suzano, our Q2 was marked by constrained production output due to a concentration of plain maintenance downtimes added to our ongoing reduced operating rate. As well as an inventory rebuilding toward minimum operation levels required to support our operations as previously discussed. As a result, our sales reached 2.9 million tons during Q2, lower compared to Q2-25 and slightly above Q1-26. Higher prices across all markets, combined with the recovery of delayed invoicing to China and Asia, drove our average export price to $601 per ton in the quarter. Turning to the right side of the slide, the $4.2 billion in EBITDA, with a 48% margin, reflected higher prices than the U.S. dollar, partially offset by higher cash stocks and FX headwinds. Now looking forward, I would like to share our view on the key factors influencing pulp market fundamentals. Market dynamics in July were quite similar to those observed in the end of the second quarter. Healthy demand in Europe and North America, but mounting pressure in Asia for the same reasons pointed out before. As hardwood pulp prices in China approach the mid 500 US dollar range, Thank you very much. Seasonal demand is expected to strengthen. Hardwood pool prices have moved below the cash costs of a number of Chinese producers, and a wider softwood hardwood price spread enhanced the competitiveness of hardwood grades. Together, these factors should support higher order intake volumes in China and Asia, reinforcing our confidence in a stronger second half of the year. Furthermore, the prospect of paper price increase announcements in Asia should provide additional tailwind for pulp demand in the coming months. While demand indicators are becoming more constructive, the supply side also presents potential upside risks to market fundamentals. At current CIF China price levels, a meaningful share of global pulp capacity remains under economic pressure. According to a well-known industry consultancy, they're just updated numbers, approximately 17 million tons of software and 5 million tons of hardware capacity are currently operating below cash cost levels at these China prices, representing close to 30% of global market bulk production. Production curtailments announcements have reached the headlines during these past months, mostly in softwood pool, but still insufficient to balance the market fundamentals. At the same time, industry profitability continues to be pressured by rising input costs, several of which are linked to ongoing geopolitical tensions. Still on the pulp supply side of the equation, a stronger alien season this year may increase the likelihood of weather-related disruptions in key producing regions, with possible implications for wood availability and production costs. Together with the recent forest license revocations in Indonesia, these factors could contribute to a tighter-than-expected S&D scenario in the short term. To conclude, I would like to reiterate that SUSANU's unmatched business platform, supported by our best-in-class assets and unique end-to-end logistics capability, provide us the agility to respond quickly to any market conditions and capture commercial opportunities. With our inventory levels already aligned with our operational needs, we remain well positioned to navigate the ongoing volatile global environment. With that said, I would now like to invite Aires to share our cash cost performance for the tour.
Aries Galhardo
Vice President, Industrial Operations & Engineering
Thank you, Léo. Good morning, everyone. Cash cost excluded all time reached R$ 843 per ton in the second quarter of 2016, broadly in line with our guidance. The 5% sequential increase mainly reflects higher input costs, Particular natural gas, caustic soda, and chlorine dioxide. Amid continued pressure from global commodity and energy markets from the conflict in the Middle West. Oil costs also increased quarter on quarter, mostly driven by longer fortune ratios and meal production mix. These effects were partially offset by stronger utilities results supported by higher export volumes, formal effects, and fixed-cost deletion from higher production volumes. The conflict in the Midwest remains a reflect factor affecting our year-over-year cost performance, contributing to higher chemical and energy prices. Wood costs were pressured by higher logistics and harvesting activities driven by transportation, mix, labor, and maintenance. These headwinds were partially offset by the same positive factors discussed in the quarter-over-quarter analysis, enabling favorable FX effects and stronger energy sales performance. In addition to the higher energy export volumes, The energy price benefited from the excess energy auction related to Riba's Meals, which became effective in January 26. Beyond the information presented on this slide, I would like to provide some additional color on maintenance downtime costs. The R$ 129 per ton Recorder in the second quarter 26, many reflect a heavier maintenance schedule during the quarter, extending downtime at the Tres Lagoas Mill and the remaining impact of Urubas Mill downtime that began in the fourth quarter 26. Look ahead. The company remains on track to deliver an average 2026 cash cost, excluding downtime, of approximately R$ 800 per ton, in line with its guidance and disclosure assumptions, supported by the gradual cash cost decline and coming counters. This said, I pass the word to Marcos to continue the presentation.
Marcos
Executive Vice President, Finance & CFO
Thank you, Aires, and good morning, everyone. I'll start on slide seven, explaining the impact of higher oil prices in our operations and the effectiveness of our hedging strategy. In second quarter 2026, our costs increased by 275 million reais due to higher oil-related prices, and we had a positive cash impact of nearly 150 million reais from our hedging portfolios, compensating nearly 60% of the negative impact. Looking ahead, we have 85% of coverage over our hedgeable exposure in the second half of 2026 and 35% in 2027. As a sensitivity, if rent prices remain at today's level of $87 per barrel, Suzana would receive a positive cash adjustment of 250 million reais over the upcoming 18 months. Moving to slide eight, I will show that our currency portfolio continues to protect our free cash flow. In the second quarter of 2026, we had a positive cash adjustment of R$ 480 million from our FX hedges. Our portfolio of zero-cost callers remained solid at $4.6 billion, with an average put option of R$ 6.11 per dollar. covering 57% of our U.S. dollar exposure. As a sensitivity, if the BRL remains at today's level of 519, Suzano will receive more than 4 billion reais on positive cash adjustments in the upcoming 24 months. Moving to slide nine, our positive free cash flow In the quarter contributed to reduce our net debt from $13 billion in first quarter 2026 to $12.8 billion in the second quarter. Our leverage ticked up from 3.3 times in first quarter 2026 to 3.4 times in the second quarter, namely explained by the contraction in our last 12 months, the bid up. Following the acquisition of Arbex in the third quarter, we will consolidate 100% of Arbex net debt and only one quarter of EBITDA. But we believe that the correct way of looking at this metric will be to consider the last 12 months EBITDA of Arbex. We remain highly focused on executing our strategy to reduce Suzano's leverage following the conclusion of this transaction. Lastly, we maintain a very healthy cost of debt at 5.1% in U.S. dollars with a comfortable amortization schedule of 76 months with limited amortizations in the short term. Important to mention that we continued our liability management effort in the second quarter of 2026 and we issued 2.5 billion reais or 500 million dollars and local instruments with an average standard of nearly 11 years and a final cost 60 basis points below the Brazilian benchmark rate for the same period. Now I'd like to turn the call to Beto for his final remarks.
Beto Abreu
Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Marcos. I want to... Highlight three main points looking forward. The first one is that we still expecting higher demand on the second semester and then stronger sales. That's the first point. The second one is that we're still confident that we will deliver the guidance regarding the cash costs that we share with all of you. And the third one is that we are already expecting efficiency gains from the Albrecht operation in the second semester, since the team is already in place. So, having said that, I will open for questions.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
We will now begin the Q&A session for investors and analysts. If you wish to ask a question, please click on raise hand. If your question has already been answered, you can leave the queue by clicking on put hand down. Our first question comes from Caio Ribeiro with Bank of America.
Caio Ribeiro
Analyst, Bank of America
Good morning. Thank you for the opportunity. So my first question is on your cash cost guidance for the year, which you kept at 800 reais per ton, which points to a drop to levels below 800 reais per ton in the second half of the year to achieve that. So I know that you guys are confident in achieving that, but I just wanted to see if you can share some more color on the main components of that cash cost and the variables that should help you deliver that guidance. And if you can give us also some color on the general trends that you're seeing for next year, you know how sticky some of those cost impacts from the conflict are, that would also be great. And then secondly, a question on leverage with a company targeting to reach that level below 2.5 times a debt to be done in 2027 to 28. And you still have to consolidate the net debt from Arbex. Just wanted to see if you can share some color on the pathway towards achieving that level. If you believe at this point that it can be reached solely with free cash flow generation in the period. or to what extent you're incorporating divestments as part of that assumption to reach that level, that would also be very helpful. Thank you.
Marcos
Executive Vice President, Finance & CFO
I'll start. Hi, Caio. Thank you. I'll start with a leverage question. So, The bulk of the free cash flow generation will continue to come from our operations. So we expect to generate that from our business. As Beto mentioned, we also expect Arbex to contribute on our deleveraging process as they will be able to generate efficiency gains over the upcoming quarters, namely in 2027 and in 2028. And on top of that, as we started mentioning in our last Suzano Day in December last year, we are also focused on a couple of divestments known for assets. We mentioned to you that we will have a strategy of selling land plots in Brazil that could be sold to a higher best use than only being used by planting forestry. And we already started that in the last months and last quarters, and we expect that to also help on the deleveraging process going forward.
Aries Galhardo
Vice President, Industrial Operations & Engineering
Hi, Caio. Iris speaking here. For second semester, there are three main reasons to choose expecting decreasing our cash cost. First of all, we don't have significant downtimes at our facilities that increase our production, putting the deletion of the fixed costs. The second one, these downtimes normally impact all the costs in the analysis because normally you bring to the The general said shut down some other maintenance that you have is coming to the year. And the third most important factor we expect A reduction of the consumption in the woods, especially because we've been totally in place our deal with Pangea that we presented in the end of last year. It will take place in a good amount and will reduce probably our ratios and our wood consumption in the coming years. There is another important effect, that's energy. Probably in a specific quarter we have an increase of surplus and will deliver a better result. For next year, I prefer Carlos be in place to say what you're waiting for coming here.
Caio Ribeiro
Analyst, Bank of America
Okay, that's very clear. Thank you, gentlemen.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Our next question comes from Marcio Farigi with Goldman Sachs. You can open your microphone.
Marcio Farigi
Analyst, Goldman Sachs
Thank you. Morning, everyone. Well, first of all, Aires, I've been following your work since your Fibra times and very well done. Congrats on the great journey on Fibra and then on Susano. It's been truly remarkable the operational delivers you guys have delivered. So congrats and good luck on the next steps. Yeah, I have a couple of questions. The first one on Airbex. I've seen, you know, many LinkedIn updates. Clearly, you've been moving fast in terms of putting the team together. And I'm sure by now you probably have an even better idea on what the company and the assets and the markets look like versus when you did the due diligence for the acquisition. So it would be great to hear your updates, early impressions, next steps, and your ongoing conviction on the delivery that can be expected. And secondly, maybe on the paper side, I think Fabio mentioned China imports have been hitting the market. We've been hearing about Chinese and Indonesian imports being more harmful to the Brazilian market as well. So trying to understand if you can see actions being taken by the government in terms of tariffs and how you are positioned for that. And also if you can comment on the U.S. profitability side, that would be great as well. Thank you both.
Beto Abreu
Chief Executive Officer
Hi, Marcio. This is Beto Lemick over at the Arbex and then the team here with the other questions. I think three things that we should highlight on the Arbex. The first one is that the team, I'll say the clean team from Susano and for Kimberly Clark have been working together during all this period of time and they have delivered tremendous job in terms of carve-out and also in terms of Thank you very much. Abreu in place with three members from Susana, too, from Kimberly Clark. They already had the first meeting. They already are working to implement the plan that we have approved. And secondly, we are very glad about the management team that we were able to put together with people from both companies and also hiring people from outside. So we are... Confident that we have a very strong team to extract all the efficiencies that we share with you once we announce the deal. So the team is very confident about what we are able to build with this initiative. Thank you. So let's take the hand over to Leo.
Fabio
Executive Vice President, Paper Business
It's Fabio here. To Fabio. Marcio, thank you for your question. So let me take the first part about Chinese imports. Yes, we have seen a big inflow of Chinese ports in the first half of the year. This is mainly given, you know, the stronger real for most of the first part of the year and also lower freights that, you know, we have seen, especially in the beginning of the year. Things have changed a little bit. We have seen some price increases announced by Indonesian and Chinese paper producers. And also we have seen rising freight costs, mainly with the Middle East conflict. And also the Brazilian real has weakened a little bit. So let's see what happens in the second half of the year with these adjustments. Through IBA, you know, the main players are discussing ways of protecting the domestic industry, looking at, you know, our import duties and see if we have, you know, the right level of import duties in order to protect what we're doing. So we are discussing and discussing with the Brazilian government ways of protecting the national industry here. Your second question regarding U.S. profitability. We have had a difficult second quarter. Part of that was expected. We had a cold maintenance outage, which is the first time that we have done that in Pine Bluff. It's the one that we turn off all the utilities at the mill, and so we have some difficulties bringing the mill back to operations, and that affects our results in the second quarter. And also we have a delay in pricing protection. We have 80% of our volume under contract and our contracts, they offer some inflation protection prices, but there's a lag of three months in between, you know, when the cost hit us and when we can increase price to customers. So in that second quarter was the, you know, the lag period that we had higher costs and prices that would start rising now in the third quarter. We are optimistic about the second half of the year, as I mentioned. There's some things happening in the market. Our main competitor had a major accident at the mill. It's still down, not operating. That's Nippon Dine Wave. And we have received a very strong orders book for the second half of the year. And so we now need to produce well so that we can collect all these volumes that we have already in place here with us in terms of orders. So we're very positive about the second half of the year. We have no major event in terms of maintenance planned for that period. And we see the mill running much better now in August already. So we're optimistic.
Marcio Farigi
Analyst, Goldman Sachs
Great. Thanks a lot, Beto and Fabio. I'll turn it over.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Our next question comes from Rafael Barcelos with Bradesco BBI. Your microphone is open, sir.
Rafael Barcelos
Analyst, Bradesco BBI
Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. And Iris, thanks for the interactions over the past few years. Wishing you good luck and congrats, Anibal, for the new position. So, first question on Pope Market. So, Léo, your speech seemed a bit more constructive versus what we I have been hearing over the past one or two months, so I just wanted to, you know, to hear your thoughts on how strong you believe demand will be in the end of August as we approach a stronger, you know, demand seasonality. And if you are comfortable to call where we are in hardwood pulp as the bottom. And any other comments that you can provide on the cycle could be interesting as well. And the second question, Beto, on capital allocation. The companies still have some potential investments going forward, like you have the right to increase your share in Lanzine, in Arbex. You also have a buyback program opened and you have these priorities now to deleverage. So I just wanted to hear your thoughts and your framework here on which areas you should prioritize. I mean, if you can consider any sort of asset sales to accelerate the leveraging and your overall thoughts on how you're going to balance the buybacks, the potential investments in this deleveraging process. Thank you.
Léo
Executive Vice President, Pulp Business
Hi, Rafa. Good morning. Thank you for your question. Yes, indeed, we are a bit more constructive when it comes to volume allocations. As we know, second half of the year is only higher than the first half of the year. And during this first weeks of August, all interactions that we are having with our Asian customers and Chinese customers, obviously, are extremely positive. We expect that August order intake will exceed Thank you very much. Regarding your question, if we see Harvard reaching the bottom, obviously we cannot give forward-looking statements, but we are confident, as the negotiations have started, that at current levels or very close to them, we will see the industry moving in China and in Asia and consecutively in Europe and North America as well. So we are very confident of a strong second half of the year.
Beto Abreu
Chief Executive Officer
Rafael, thank you for your question. To be very straightforward in terms of capital allocation, our priority is really deleveraging. So this is where we're going to focus despite rights that we might have on those deals that you mentioned before. And this is also related to buyback. Again, the focus and the main priority of the company is the leveraging. And this is what we're going to focus on. Regarding asset sales, you know that we own nearly 1 million hectares in terms of land. And we have a small part of that, very small part of that assets. That we call higher and best usage of the land that we might divest. Actually, we have started already. But besides that, there's no other important divestment process that we are taking into consideration at this time.
Rafael Barcelos
Analyst, Bradesco BBI
Perfect. Thank you, Beto and Leo.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Our next question comes from Daniel Sasson with Itaú BBA. Your microphone is open, sir.
Daniel Sasson
Analyst, Itaú BBA
Hi, everyone. Thanks for the opportunity. Before we start, I'd also like to thank Aires for all the changes we've had over the years, your constant availability to engage with us. It's really been a privilege to follow your journey across Aracruz, Fibra and Suzano. So best of luck in your next steps. My first question, Marcos, you mentioned that you expect the internal free cash flow generation to be the main driver of your leveraging path over the next few years, followed by some opportunities to divest from non-core assets and so on and so forth. At what time or at what point do you believe the company can rethink about its... Thank you very much. So, while this continues to materialize after the incorporation of Carbex, maybe you're going to start to be asked about capital allocation and so on and so forth. So, I'd like to understand how your official policies enter into this discussion. And then maybe my second question to Leo, if you could expand a little bit more, Leo, of course, it's... You can't say whether you're close or not to the bottom of prices for this cycle, but If you could give us more information or more details about what you just said, that there are some high cost integrated Chinese producers, maybe considering buying pulp from by market pulp, right? What are your estimates in regards to the Chinese pulp production cost, depending on if they use domestic wood or if they import wood chips from Vietnam, for instance, because we're seeing Would cheap prices increase across South Asia in general? That would be really helpful. Thank you, everyone.
Marcos
Executive Vice President, Finance & CFO
Hi, Daniel. Thank you for your question. First, I would say that we continue to be very focused on our strategy. So the first point is we will continue to be never satisfied in terms of how competitive we can be in our operations. So we're always looking for opportunities to improve our efficiency in all the value chain that we have, starting from the forestry, actually from the nursery to the forestry, Marcos Moreno Chagas Marcos Moreno Chagas Marcos Moreno Chagas that we have very strong and competitive logistic assets that we have in Brazil, replicable as well, that we could extract value from that in the future, but could take more time. So for the short term, we are definitely focused on bringing the leverage to the level that we believe is healthy for the company, 2.5 times. As we reach that, We will be able to decide on a more aggressive or not return to shareholders. So I would say that the main assumption behind considering a new return to shareholder will be focused on the leverage in the company to two and a half times.
Daniel Sasson
Analyst, Itaú BBA
Super clear, Marcos. Thank you.
Léo
Executive Vice President, Pulp Business
Daniel, this is Leo here. Thanks for your question. I'm going to try to give a color in other variables other than just wood to fundament why we see a constructive second quarter or second half of the year. with several potential upsides in the model. First, with all our market intelligence team in China and all the work we do, our current estimate of average cash costs for pulp production in China ranges from $540 or $535 to $550. And that's the average Chinese cash cost. So obviously older mills operate at a higher cash cost and newer mills and at the lower cash cost and prices as you know are very close to these levels and already breaching the cash cost of higher cost Chinese producers. I'm not even talking about marginal cash cost because that's in our view around $630 so we really think Thank you very much. And a bigger evidence of that is the amount of unplanned downtimes and closures announcements that we have seen so far. I have always been saying that this is one of the drivers of change that's not in our forecasting models, but that happened and could happen in cycles like this. So just to exemplify, the unplanned downtimes and closures last year totaled roughly 1.7 million tons, adding softwood and hardwood. And what we know up to today, with yesterday's announcement of MEDSAKIMI, We are now reaching 2.5 million tons already. And again, that's just until yesterday. So it's a 45% increase in unplanned downtimes and closures up into August. That's almost a million tons of product that's now less available to markets, but in my view, still insufficient. We still need to see more closures for market to recover balance. Last but not least, it's important also to look at the inventory levels at Chinese ports. They are high indeed, but they are reducing. We see a reduction from peak of roughly 300,000 tons. In our view, that's all software inventories being reduced. A few months ago, inventories of software represented 65% of what was available at ports based on our market info and teams in the ground. Today, we see maybe a 50-50% build-up in terms of what is the Chinese stocks, meaning that if you make the calculations hard, it is completely unbalanced. But there's still an overstock in software grades, which we believe with this number of announcements of closures and expected future announcements to come under this economic scenario, which I mentioned, should again reshape and rebalance Chinese inventories and consequently the market as well.
Daniel Sasson
Analyst, Itaú BBA
Thank you, Léo.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Our next question comes from Rodolfo Angele with JP Morgan. You can open the microphone.
Rodolfo Angele
Analyst, JP Morgan
Good morning. I have a couple of questions. One is just to Marcus on working capital outlook. Just wanted to hear if you have any visibility on potentially freeing up some working capital. to help that process of the leveraging in the second half of the year. The main question I have is for Beto on strategy. So when we discuss the investment case for Suzano, one pushback that we constantly receive is, again, because of... The past and the fears of potential opportunistic M&A shifting the focus away from the leveraging and shareholder returns into more investments. So I just wanted to make the question very vocally to you so that we can for sure clarify even better that How management sees M&A as in your toolkit of potential things to do and just how you look at it as a whole. That's it for me. Thank you very much.
Marcos
Executive Vice President, Finance & CFO
Hi, Rodolfo. Thank you for your question. When working capital, definitely we have a very strong focus on improving that line. This is a target, an internal target for the company, and it resounds on the never satisfied approach that we have. How can we be more effective and more efficient on our inventories? How can we be more efficient on our topics? So on and so forth. So we will continue to look at this line with the very close eyes and looking to capture opportunities. However, I would say that there are fluctuations in that line. that are very frequent in most of the accounts that are relevant. So accounts receivables, accounts payable, copics, postponements, so on and so forth. So it's very difficult to predict or to forecast anything on that line. But you can bear in mind that this is a strong focus of the management at this point in time.
Beto Abreu
Chief Executive Officer
Hi, Rodolfo. Thank you for your question. I have been saying that our strategy is very concentrated currently on all co-reshaping the level of competitiveness of our company. We still have a lot to do on that area in the next couple of years. The commercial team have been doing a great job in what we can call creating new demand through the fiber-to-fiber strategy. The potential of those initiatives is still in place and is still growing. And as I said, on the very short term, the next two, three years, deleveraging the business. So there's no M&A in the pipeline at all. So this is what we're going to keep focused. And this is what we want to do. Thank you, Rodolfo, for your question.
Rodolfo Angele
Analyst, JP Morgan
Very clear. Thank you.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Alfonso Salazar with Scotia Bank You can open a microphone, sir
Alfonso Salazar
Analyst, Scotia Bank
Yes, thank you. The question that I have tries to put together some of the comments that you have made during the presentation. The fact that China is exporting more, what you mentioned about the situation in China, and we know that consumption in China has been very weak recently, overall consumption, not only paper. But this is something that more people are starting to think this is a structural, not something cyclical. And at the same time, they are producing more. So I'm wondering if at some point, as you consider what could happen if you start having over capacity and more supply in China, more exports, the need for more exports, as we have seen in many other industries. What grades and what markets do you think could be more exposed? What would be the strategy? This is important, especially as you are getting more exposure to new markets through ARBEX. So if you can comment on how this situation could unfold or what are your thoughts about what we are seeing today?
Léo
Executive Vice President, Pulp Business
So this is Leo here. I'm going to answer your question. But before that, I missed just I'm going to get back to Daniel's question when he asked about the wood impact in China. And just to clarify, because I skipped that one. So we are seeing today the Chinese industry using roughly 58 to 60 percent of their needs from local wood in China. and roughly 40-42% imported. The imported part of it, there is a price increase. As we all know, that ranges from $30 to $50 from end of last year. And I think in two calls ago, I mentioned that this could be a probable impact related to the revocation of the Indonesian licenses and now Indonesia importing wood from Vietnam, which is what's happening. And in China, there's also an uplift in prices compared to early last year's prices of roughly $30 BDMT. And we see a lot of volatility in the short term, very related to the typhoon season. There's a big correlation of wood prices in China. and this weather-related event. So every time a typhoon occurs, and obviously the recurrence of those in a strong El Nino year is higher, so we see peaks every once in a while. But all in all, if we consider the lowest part of this range of $30 BDMT increase, we're talking about $60 increase in the cash costs of the Chinese producers, and if we consider the upper range of $50, that's a $100 per ton cash cost increase for Chinese integrated for-pull producers. So that's our view on wood. Now going to Alfonso's question, this is a big dilemma, right, Alfonso? First of all, I would start by saying what I don't agree to. We don't agree that the consumption in China in paper grades is weak. We see in most grades, packaging... and Tishu, double-digit growth, demand growth in China. So it is not our view that we're seeing a contraction of demand in that grades. Obviously, printing and writing grades still grow domestically. The demand for those still grow, but at a lower pace and not double-digit. So we're not seeing at all in any of these grades a trend in paper grades. that point out to a negative consumption trend. It is a positive consumption trend in China, obviously excluding exports and adding imports to that. But yes, there is an overcapacity in the industry. This is not new. This is not 2026 information. This has been going on for many years or decades. But it's important to say that there are grades that are easier to be exported, which are more efficient in logistics. I would say printing, writing and packaging grades. And as you kind of correlated to Arbex, your question and tissue, a tissue obviously is a product that's much harder to be exported because logistics and the cost of logistics is a key component. And so it's a product that usually you would reach efficiency closer to your production basis. So risk levels differ among different grades in terms of paper production.
Alfonso Salazar
Analyst, Scotia Bank
That's very helpful, thank you.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
The Q&A section is over. We would like to hand the floor back to Mr. Beto Abreu for his closing remarks.
Beto Abreu
Chief Executive Officer
Thank you very much again all for our second quarter, 2026. Results. I want to thank you. And if there is any further question, please get in contact with our R.I. team. We will be keen to answer any further. So thank you very much and have a good day.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
The Susanus S.A. second quarter of 2026 conference call is concluded. The Investor Relations Department is available to answer further questions you may have. Thank you and have a good day.